North Korean Troops in Ukraine are Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
8 min
North Korea entering the war is not a sign of Russia's geopolitical strength, but actually a sign of Russia's immense geopolitical weakness. Expect this to be a whole big nothing burger.
-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Chapters
-
0:00
North Korean Troop Deployment
North Korea is sending up to 12,000 soldiers to Ukraine, mostly special forces.
-
1:41
Strategic Context and Scale
The troop numbers represent less than half a month of Russia's monthly casualties. The deployment signals Russian weakness rather than providing significant military aid.
-
6:11
Desertion Evidence
Eighteen North Korean special forces have already deserted to Ukraine. The deployment is a political gesture unlikely to change the war's outcome.
Key points
- 0:20
North Korea has already had military advisors in Ukraine helping fire ballistic missiles.
- 0:20
Intelligence suggests up to 10,000 soldiers are heading to the front lines.
- 0:20
South Korean authorities estimate about 12,000 total soldiers will reinforce Russia soon.
- 1:41
Russia suffers an average of 30,000 or more casualties every single month.
- 1:41
The 12,000 North Korean troops would at most resupply about half a month's worth of Russian soldiers.
- 1:41
Russia would likely send 50,000 to 100,000 troops if it wanted to change the battle outcome.
- 3:55
North Korean soldiers lack combat experience and do not integrate well into Russian battalions.
- 1:41
The deployment signals Russia's immense geopolitical weakness rather than its strength.
- 3:55
North Korean troops may serve as a deterrent for China regarding the Russian Far East.
- 6:11
Eighteen North Korean special forces have already deserted to Ukraine.
- 6:11
The situation is a political gesture unlikely to produce significant outcomes.
Who and where
People · 1
-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 1
President of Ukraine since 2019
Photo 1
1. Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)
Related episodes
What Everyone is Getting Wrong About North Korean Soldiers in Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
North Korea sends soldiers to gain resources and show commitment, not to learn combat tactics. People must understand how North Korean society is different from Western society to call Putin's bluff.
Why Russia’s Manpower Situation is FAR Worse Than Ukraine’s
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine does not have a manpower shortage because its lower recruitment numbers are offset by Russia's much higher casualty rates. Ukraine will not run out of soldiers as long as it maintains its current defensive tactics and Russia continues its high-casualty offensive strategy.
Why is North Korea Already Sending More Troops to Ukraine?
Paul J. Warburg
North Korea sending additional troops reveals a logical inconsistency in Russia's approach to escalation. The small troop shipment shows both Russia and North Korea are in a far more desperate position than estimated.
Russia's New Recruitment Crisis is Next Level Incompetence
Paul J. Warburg
Russia cannot fix its core problems because it lacks willing technical experts and relies on desperate tactics that fail against an innovative Ukrainian society. Ukraine will be victorious because its innovative capabilities and defensive preparations overwhelm Russia's desperate mobilization efforts.
Russia is pursuing an INSANE new plan…it involves Belarus
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is likely building infrastructure in Belarus as a feint to distract Ukraine and control narratives rather than planning an immediate invasion. Ukraine remains not out of the woods and needs sustained support through purchasing goods from Ukrainian businesses.
AI-generated summary · model qwen3.5:9b-12k · prompt version whole-3.window-7.combine-10.s-f4be8e ·
video id xZUnt_YaevM ·
Watch on YouTube