Peter Zeihan
461 episodes summarised, from 3 April 2025 to 12 November 2026.
On YouTube ↗2026 · 250 episodes
2025 · 211 episodes
November 2026 · 10
5:22
The Problem with the U.S. Power Grid
The U.S. cannot unify its power grids soon because geography and local authority barriers prevent efficient long-distance transmission. Real progress requires adjacent jurisdictions to share resources before attempting national grid unification.
5:18
China's Power Vacuum Worsens
Xi Jinping has created a one-man dictatorship that is purging the bureaucracy to the point where China cannot function accurately. It is really hard to get an accurate view of what is going on inside the country now because everyone who used to collect that information has now been purged.
3:49
Polish Politics Get Persnickety
Poland faces a constitutional crisis where both major factions make legally valid claims that prevent resolution without new elections. Expect this stalemate to be the new norm in Polish politics for several weeks or months.
6:05
A New Explosive Threat in the Persian Gulf
Conventional commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf is probably going to collapse because there is no good defense against speedboat attacks. The cost for the civilian shipping sector to try to cope with this is immense and will absolutely change the cost structure of how shipping happens.
6:13
Bolsonaro Flees Brazil Following Election Loss
The blood feud between Lula and the Bolsonaros is causing a top-to-bottom fissure in Brazil's state capacity. No matter how the political conflict resolves, it will matter to a great number of people including those in the United States.
+4
4:58
Attacks on Russian Data Centers: It's Not About Bots
If you pull the plug on that, send them back 40 years or more, you get some catastrophic outcomes. That's what's going on in Russia right now with the Ukraine war.
6:13
What's Behind the French Protests
The violence in France is caused by budget deficits and anarchist movements, not illegal migrants. Everyone out there is trying to beat their own ideological drum and point at France and say, C, C, C, but for most of them, the facts don't match the ideology.
4:11
France and the UK Choose the Nuclear Option
The UK and France are pursuing nuclear weapons to prevent Germany from feeling secure enough to build its own deterrent. Allowing Germany to develop nukes would recreate the dangerous pressure cooker of 19th-century Europe.
5:38
The Paris Accords Can't Stop Climate Change
The Paris Accords cannot stop climate change because they lack necessary funding and rely on a globalized system that is now breaking down. By the end of the century, we need to be starting to consider things like five and maybe even six.
4:56
El Salvador Invades Haiti with Help from the Trump Administration?
El Salvador in general, does not have any military capability. Get ready for the worst.
October 2026 · 25
4:02
What Happens When China Runs Out of Water?
The People's Republic of China is going to vanish in the next couple of decades. The People's Republic of China is going to vanish in the next couple of decades.
4:27
India Has Three Major Problems (At The Moment)
The normal things that produce stability in India at the moment are offline and inverted to cause instability. You should expect this to get significantly worse before it gets better.
6:11
Trump Might Be Onto Something with Data Center Energy
The proposal indicates significant changes are coming if pushed forward. The proposal is a potential solution to current problems but faces serious political hurdles.
3:00
The Turn: Demographics Meet Deglobalization
The United States will surrender its position in the Eastern Hemisphere before the end of the Trump administration. Everyone will soon notice major disruptions in agriculture due to these changing global mechanics.
6:55
How Will the Elections Impact Serbia and Brazil?
Recent elections in Serbia and Brazil represent minor steps along a long road rather than landmark changes. No radical changes are expected in either country because they remain trapped by their specific geographic and historical constraints.
13:20
Data Centers: A Necessary Evil...Kinda
Data centers are necessary for modern economic function because removing them would force a return to manual paper-based systems resulting in significantly lower standards of living. While data centers have negative effects like high energy use, eliminating them would condemn millions to low-value jobs and drastically reduce personal incomes.
3:46
Oil Pricing Is Going Crazy
A severe break in the security environment allows the market to function differently. By the time we get to the end of the year, unless something is resolved politically, we're going to be looking at outright breaks in supply lines.
6:18
The Great Oil Split Has Begun
The United States has a functional ceiling on its energy prices of around $70 while Europe and Asia pay double or triple that amount due to transport disruptions. This fragmented market state is going to be the norm for the bulk of the next 20 years.
5:48
Ground Drones Hit the Frontlines in Ukraine
The emergence of ground drones makes it very difficult for any sort of projection-based military to push force somewhere else. We're not going to figure that out in six months.
5:53
Should the U.S. Military Invade Yemen?
The United States faces an ugly choice between a difficult military occupation or accepting Iranian control over Gulf energy. A military solution is too involved to recommend, leaving the only viable option as a political deal with Iran.
5:44
Does China Have a Succession Plan
If Xi dies tomorrow, there simply isn't an institution, much less a personality, who could potentially step forward and take over his role. The best case scenario is that Xi becomes the new Yeltsin or Brezhnev and remains just alive enough that he can be propped up in a chair and wave to the crowd every once in a while while everything slowly disintegrates around him.
6:27
The French Protests Were Inevitable
France must cut social programs because its centralized system extracted resources from colonies to fund a welfare state that can no longer be sustained. The protests are inevitable because students and workers face a system custom designed to not cut spending that now has no money.
3:41
China Gets a New Base in Southeast Asia
China is building a self-sufficient base in Laos to project power across Southeast Asia despite the high risk of conflict with Thailand. Thailand represents a significant strategic hurdle because it is the most capable country in the region with a history of resisting foreign control.
5:06
The End of Black Sea Shipping
The escalation of naval drone warfare will shut down the Black Sea within days, crippling exports for both Russia and Ukraine. This shutdown represents a major economic hit to both sides as all cargo must now go out by rail through neighboring countries.
2:41
What Happens When India's Water Runs Out?
We are looking at a water-driven calorie deficit in India within a decade or two that is just simply difficult to wrap your mind around. And it is nothing compared to the third one.
5:51
Defending the Homefront from Cheap Drones
The entire industrial age needs to find a new way to operate because we are not ready for this. It is time to start noodling fast, hopefully, about what a post-drone economy can even be.
3:02
How Diesel Could Shape the Ukraine War
If we actually go a six-month period or more where the Russians don't have enough fuel to keep their system operational from a military point of view, then we really have entered a new phase in this conflict. With the United States possibly about to remove the last remaining large supply of the global standards, that leaves the Russians completely high and dry.
5:39
What’s Next for Iraq?
The withdrawal of US troops leaves Iraq unstable, risking Iranian dominance in the south or a return to Sunni rule. Peace in the region is unlikely as history suggests Sunnis will rise again if the system becomes unmoored.
5:50
Will Putin Join the Miami G20 Summit?
Putin may use the G20 summit to announce an invasion of a NATO country, forcing Trump to choose between Russia and the alliance. The outcome will determine if the US alliance completely shatters or remains intact.
+1
Peter Zeihan's First Fiction Novel || Pre-Order Acceptable Range Now
The new book is coming out this January. The book is available for pre-order now.
4:11
Ukraine Finally Pushes the Frontline Back
Ukraine has reshaped battlefield tactics by using memory drones to starve Russian front lines of supplies. The tide of battle has changed significantly for Ukraine as tanks return to fight.
2:38
SpaceX Deploys 26 Satellites with New Starship
The test represents a moderate step forward but requires significant additional work before success. The event is a positive direction, though substantial challenges remain for future operations.
3:35
What Happens When Fossil Water Runs Out?
Three regions will cease to be agriculturally producing zones within the next 20 to 30 years. The problem is honestly drilling for water in these zones.
5:44
Building Out the Power Grid: Large Power Transformers
The United States cannot expand its grid by 50% to support reindustrialization because it lacks domestic large transformer production and faces severe permitting delays. Without significant changes in federal policy and domestic manufacturing, the US will fail to maintain its grid or reindustrialize.
7:56
How To Ban Diesel Exports
Export bans without infrastructure changes create oversaturation that reduces domestic energy security. The conversation is misplaced until distribution systems are fixed alongside any bans.
September 2026 · 23
5:02
U.S. Sanctions on Iran Take a New Approach
The U.S. aims to make life difficult for the Iranian population so they will rebel and overthrow the government. Two arrogant and increasingly isolated men are pretending that they know what's going on.
3:31
The AI Race: U.S. vs. China
China cannot compete in AI because export restrictions prevent them from building the necessary high-end hardware. The structural issues regarding data and ethics are irrelevant because the race comes down to hardware access.
6:07
The Diesel Shortage Hits America
Diesel shortages will reverberate through the entire American economy for months. The US faces guaranteed transport problems affecting everything moved throughout the country for at least the next 18 months.
5:48
The Venezuela Oil Deal Is Just the Start
The oil deals represent only the beginning of a potential renaissance, not an immediate turnaround. The current situation is a step in the right direction, but we must not get too crazy or ahead of ourselves.
3:58
My Two Cents on the AI Debate
The current debate over AI safety is actually a positive sign of open conversation. The current debate does not need to bear fruit until the 2040s when supply chains are rebuilt.
+1
5:47
The Geography of… Bear Attacks
Japan has seen hundreds of bear attacks this year due to demographic shifts and aggressive species. American black bears are scavengers scared by noise, while Asian bears view humans as intruders.
5:08
China's Hold on Congolese Cobalt
We must learn to get by with less because business as usual for tech advancement will simply not fly. More likely, the business as usual of tech advancement that we become used to is simply not going to fly.
3:40
Prize Courts Revived for Iran Seizures
The prize court system is being set up in the southern district which includes Houston. This could mean that the rest of this year is going to get really interesting.
5:42
How to Work Together Like Early Rome
Southeast Asia and Southern Latin America resemble pre-Rome due to economic integration and lack of historical conflict. These regions must form new alliances to survive the breakdown of current global systems.
4:44
Can AI-Driven Robots Save Japan?
Japan must develop autonomous robots because it cannot import labor due to racism and faces a massive workforce shortage. The project looks pretty promising as it merges long-term Japanese automation efforts with new frontier technology.
3:51
What Is Zelensky's Political Future?
Zelensky's historical legacy depends on whether Russia wins, a stalemate occurs, or Ukraine wins. History is still playing out on this specific question, and we are not going to get an answer this year, or next year, or the year after that.
4:57
The Democrats Are Screwed, Too
The Democrats' broad coalition strategy includes opposing factions that prevent policy discussion and have fractured their traditional vote banks. The Democrats face a hung Congress where the president cannot be impeached, resulting in another two years of political dysfunction.
+1
11:31
What Does Life After Donald Trump Look Like?
Trump has destroyed the Republican Party's institutional capacity and mirrors the fragile personalist regimes of China and Russia. When these leaders leave, the result will be quick and complete collapse because governance is them.
+5
7:50
Does the Trump Administration Know What's Going On?
The Trump administration lacks awareness because loyalists replaced experts who could provide accurate information. The next president will inherit a lobotomized government structure requiring years to fix.
+3
4:20
Back to the Glory Days of the Spice Trade
The technologies of globalization are failing, and the system that has allowed the whole world to go wherever it wants and access any particle are breaking down. We're probably going to be going into a world where the single biggest impact is going to be a collapse in what we considered manufactured goods trade.
3:04
Project Vault Doesn't Solve the Mineral Problem
Project Vault fails to solve the mineral problem because most critical materials processing is done in China. Without diplomacy to secure resources from Canada, Australia, and Brazil, the initiative remains a rounding error.
4:28
Why a Russian-Chinese Pipeline Won't Happen
The Chinese see the Russians as backwards barbarians and the Russians see the Chinese as peasants. Whenever Putin and Xi get together, the conversation always is, hey, let's do a pipeline.
3:59
Ukraine Is Shooting Fish in a Barrel
Ukraine will stop Russia's significant oil export presence by destroying the non-reporting shadow fleet. The ports will eventually run out of storage facilities, cutting down production inland just as effectively as stopping the shadow fleet.
5:14
The End of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Repeated usage is functionally ending the salt dome's useful lifespan. So either we have a new multi-billion dollar project authorized by Congress to establish an entirely new reserve, or the United States has to do something else in order to regulate markets.
5:27
Global Shipping Comes Under Attack
No country can defend all eight major transit choke points simultaneously. No nation or coalition can keep global sea lanes safe anymore.
5:05
China’s Real Estate System Is Failing
The Chinese government is now trying to get this money somewhere else. I've always found it very amusing of the people who want to get their money into China to make money when the people who are in China are desperate for any way to get the money out.
7:30
Russia Is Struggling to Defend Its Own Capital
The combination of fuel shortages and the risks of peripheral mobilization makes the current situation looking pretty bad for the Kremlin. The convergence of battlefield losses and social pressure from forced mobilization creates a dangerous situation for the Kremlin.
5:29
Trade War Revival: Trump, Canada, and Tariffs
The US cannot reindustrialize under current conditions because uncertainty prevents investment. We are farther away from clarity now than we were in January of 2025.
August 2026 · 21
3:04
Relocate or Move On from the Middle East
The United States lacks a good defense for these systems because it cannot build enough interceptors to match Iranian drone production. Moving bases to Jordan or Israel fails because Iranian drone ranges are extending daily to cover these areas, leading to a broad-scale American withdrawal from the region.
3:06
Israel and Turkey Call Dibs on Syria
Syria is returning to a no man's land because globalization has ended. Israel and Turkey will struggle over the region without necessarily clashing militarily.
6:04
The U.S. Chooses Favorites: North Korea over South Korea
The United States is abandoning South Korea, forcing it to develop nuclear weapons and triggering a regional arms race. The strategic balance of peace in Northeast Asia is ending because South Korea will likely build a nuclear weapon.
9:10
The Collapse of the World's Strategic Straits - Part 2
The world is shifting from free international waterways to regulated choke points where local powers charge tolls and restrict global trade. This shift creates a new global order where nations near these straits hold immense leverage over energy and commerce.
4:51
Ukraine's Flamingos Crush Russia's Space Program
Russia is losing its technological power and becoming dependent on China while Ukraine destroys its industry. Russia will likely lose its ability to export resources from the Black and Baltic Seas before year's end.
4:49
The Collapse of the World's Strategic Straits
The United States cannot force Iran to keep Hormuz open, leading to its transformation into a toll system. Turning Hormuz into a toll system will formally or informally break over a century of international maritime law.
6:33
Moving Beyond the Patriot Missile
The United States must overhaul its defense strategy because deglobalization and Ukrainian innovation render current advanced systems unsustainable. The US will soon stop delivering Patriots, accelerating global anti-ballistic missile technology research.
A Post-American Alliance for the Middle East
The United States is removing itself from the Eastern Hemisphere, forcing local powers to integrate for their own security. By 2030, these nations will be in a very different environment where they are preparing for a post-American world.
The Shadow Fleet Is Sinking
A ship is sinking off Oman, causing an ecological disaster three times as bad as the Exxon Valdez. The decrepit nature of the vessels is probably being their own worst enemy.
Russia Loses Its Foothold in Syria
Russia loses its foothold in Syria and its ability to project power into the Mediterranean. This marks a good day for everyone but Russia, as it forces them to focus exclusively on Ukraine.
Is This the End of U.S. Biofuels?
The macroeconomic situation that led us to doing ethanol at scale is fading pretty quickly. Ethanol was fine in a highly globalized world where there were lots of options.
Global Energy Stressors: Can Anybody Help
It all adds up to a pretty bleak picture for energy markets. Best guess is that the shortage of 10 to 12 million barrels per day is going to go up over the next three months.
Global Energy Stressors: Can Shale Save the World
The United States cannot provide significant additional energy exports because domestic demand for electricity has outpaced supply. Europe is unprepared for rising energy prices that will cause deindustrialization.
Global Energy Stressors: Europe's Oil Supply Problem
Europe faces a critical winter gas shortage because Russian supplies are gone and Qatari exports have collapsed due to war damage. The combination of lost Russian supply and damaged Qatari infrastructure leaves Europe with dangerously low winter gas reserves.
Global Energy Stressors: Kazakh Oil Exports
Over a million barrels per day of Kazakhstan's oil capacity will likely go offline permanently due to the war. There is really nothing we can do about that loss of capacity.
Why I Don't Worry About Cyberattacks (for the most part)
The dispersed nature of cyber defense makes it impossible for an enemy to take down the country. This physical structure passes as good news in the world these days.
The Limits of China's Military Reach
China utterly lacked the military means in order to protect that trade even within sight of its own shore. But we now know that if they do go down, they're going to be taking the fuel systems of a half a dozen countries that the United States cares a fair amount about as a side effect.
Leaving the World Behind: Obama vs. Trump
The Trump administration's deal represents a strategic abdication on financial and nuclear issues. We are now in a grade below D statecraft situation.
Why Bypassing Hormuz is a Pipe Dream
Bypassing the Strait of Hormuz via pipelines is a pipe dream because all proposed routes are vulnerable to Iranian strikes except the Turkish route, which is too small and expensive to solve the problem. The Trump administration believes this is a quick and easy fix, but it is not.
The U.S. Can't Break the (Arctic) Ice
The United States has lost its ability to project military power in the Arctic due to fleet collapse and failed international partnerships. This strategic void will resonate throughout the remainder of the century as the world churns.
South Africa's Immigration Problem
South Africa's immigration situation is unique and cannot be compared to any other country on the planet. There is no other country on the planet that has anything like this or has in the modern era.
July 2026 · 21
Ukraine's Military Reshuffling Highlights Resource Problems
Ukraine cannot fight effectively because it lacks the resources to maintain both essential drone and artillery systems simultaneously. Zelensky must personally balance two hostile factions that cannot function without him, leaving the situation unchanged.
Spain's Immigration Solution Turns Into a Crisis
Spain's pro-immigration strategy works because its former empire provides a unique pool of young, culturally compatible workers. Whether or not anyone else can follow in their footsteps, well, that's a different question.
Houthis Declare Open Season on Saudi Arabia
The Houthis threaten Saudi oil infrastructure via Iranian-supplied drones, but logistical hurdles make immediate success doubtful. Time will tell if the hardware arrives and whether it can cause significant damage.
Ukraine Closes the Sea of Azov
Russia's economic and military logistics are collapsing due to the loss of the Sea of Azov. The closure will cripple Russian supply lines and remain a problem for a year.
Chinese Marriage Data Confirms Demographic Crisis
China faces an irreversible demographic crisis because there are not enough people left to marry and repopulate the nation. The situation is dire and will not last much longer.
The Demographics of Central Europe
The Central European region is depopulating so severely that historical patterns suggest a future where Turkey expands northward to fill the vacuum. Considering the timeframe, a lot of us, whether we're watching from the outside or the inside, are going to live to see it because that's not that far from now.
Russian Sleeper Cells Don't Scare Me
High-cost intelligence requires immediate massive payoffs that do not exist in dormant operations. Sleeper cells are restricted to low-end fiction and are not a realistic threat.
Why Space and Data Centers Don't Go Together
Anyone who tells you that data centers in space are coming because we don't have room is lying to you. So anyone who tells you that data centers in space are coming because we don't have room is lying to you.
Defending Against Rising Sea Levels
Breaking globalization forces a switch to coal and wood, accelerating climate change and raising sea levels beyond current defenses. Humanity must adapt to rising sea levels as material shortages prevent scaling green energy without globalization.
How to Solve the Cocaine Problem
Domesticating cocaine production is geographically impossible and economically disastrous. The simplest answer is just not do cocaine.
The Future of Drone Tech: Naval Strategies
The entire Black Sea is starting to become a no-go zone. By the end of the year, Russian access to the Black Sea for shipping will be lost.
South Korea Goes All-In on Drones
South Korea must adopt drone warfare because its demographic collapse and North Korean artillery threat make traditional armies obsolete. The DMZ in the Korean Peninsula is likely to be at the top of the list for strategic environments that will change.
The Future of Drone Tech: Ukraine's Innovation
Ukraine's rapid innovation currently outpaces Russia, but Russia can produce far more units once it adapts designs and secures parts from China. This year will determine if China backs Russia to catch up or if Ukraine grinds down the Russian industrial base.
Why Nobody Came to Help the U.S in Iran
Allies did not help because they lack independent naval power and were excluded from intelligence sharing. The situation is a trap caused by a leader who refuses to surround himself with anyone but sycophants.
A Canadian Pipe(line) Dream
Canada's heavy crude is trapped in North America due to lack of export routes and political friction with the US. Albertans keep talking about independence because if they can get a different relationship with the United States, then all of a sudden a lot of that mechanical stuff just disappears.
The U.S. and Ukraine Make a Drone Deal
This direct contract allows the United States to take advantage of the war zone in Ukraine to help test an entirely new set of weapon systems. This represents a step in the right direction along a long path of tighter partnership.
Korean Exports Skyrocket Thanks to AI
The current AI boom relies on a fragile global supply chain involving over 50 countries. We must build everything possible now because the current system will soon fail.
Status Update on the Persian Gulf
The current peace deal lopsidedly serves Iran's purposes by allowing only them unrestricted access to the world's most important energy waterway. This situation is an ongoing catastrophic economic and strategic event for the world as a whole.
U.S. Oil Export Restrictions Coming Soon
The U.S. Government must restrict energy exports to control prices as the international system loses energy. The administration will likely choose an export tax because it avoids supply shortages while raising domestic prices.
Say Goodbye to Kazakhstan Oil
Kazakhstan relies on Russian infrastructure for oil processing. Expect more attacks on Russian infrastructure that largely exists to serve Kazakh needs.
Russia Gets Knocked Off Its Horse
The destruction of Russia's semiconductor capacity will cause a qualitative collapse in its military hardware. The war is shifting from a slow grind to a more dynamic conflict soon.
June 2026 · 23
4:18
Ukraine Starts Cracking Open the Occupied Territories
Russian authorities have suspended all fuel purchases for all civilians whether it's personal cars or businesses. The Russian position across the entire southern parts of the occupied territories is really falling apart.
Nukes for All! (But Finland First)
But that is exactly the circumstances the Trump administration is unraveling. So instead, we're going to get at least another half a dozen nuclear powers in the broader world.
The End of NATO
The US withdrawal of assets and pre-positioning for China ends NATO's strategic purpose. Europe is forced to make procurement decisions that functionally end the alliance anyway.
The Reality of the Global Energy Situation
The global energy shortage represents the biggest shock the human race has ever experienced. Even in the best case scenario, the situation remains terrible for everyone this summer.
The Future of Drone Tech: Russian Scale
There is no way that Ukrainians are anywhere close to getting any degree of control over their airspace. If the Ukrainians do manage to launch a ground assault, they're going to be doing so under a hail of glide bombs because they can't really do much about it.
France and Germany's Fighter Jet Program (FCAS) Is Dead
Europe's abandonment of its joint fighter jet program prevents Germany from building the independent military power needed to threaten its neighbors. The decision to cancel the program is positive because it ensures Germany remains economically strong but militarily contained.
Will Ukraine Make a Play on Crimea?
Ukrainian drone attacks are strangling Russian logistics, turning Crimea into a strategic drain rather than a military springboard. The Russian logistical effort for the southern front will crumble if Ukrainians continue to bottle up convoys in kill zones.
The Long Awaited "Iran Deal"
The United States will release all the funds that have been frozen by all previous American administrations to Iran immediately. It is difficult to overstate what a collapse an American position agreement to this would be.
DHS Gets Funding... A Lot of Funding
The U.S. population is dying faster than being born due to retiring baby boomers. He's got what he needs to do whatever he wants on the issues that he cares about as long as he's alive or in office.
Screwworms Take a Bite Out of Texas’ Beef Industry
The United States lacks the expertise and capacity to control screwworms, leading to long-term economic damage. The situation represents a long-term economic burden on the system for months and years to come.
China No Longer Controls North Korea
North Korea is no longer a Chinese satellite but an independent state seeking leverage against Beijing. This shift makes North Korea a dangerous wildcard that will cause pain to dynamic Asian economies.
The Future of Drone Tech: Hybrid Drones
Hybrid drones have doubled Ukrainian strike range to 100 kilometers, making Russian force massing impossible. If Ukraine clears minefields during the summer offensive season, they will achieve a decisive tactical advantage.
A Massive Energy Break Coming Soon
A massive energy break is coming soon as relief measures evaporate by June or early July. Get ready for a fun summer because the deadline is probably going to happen regardless of negotiations.
Armenian Election Signals It's Done with Russia
Armenia must cooperate with Turkey to survive, as Russia can no longer provide security guarantees and other neighbors are unreliable. This election is really the start of a very difficult process, and we're not going to see it wrapped up this year.
Insulating the President with Loyalists
President Trump isolates himself from intelligence agencies to ensure he remains the smartest person in the room. Trump keeps institutions away from him because he does not want anyone with real foreign policy experience near him.
The Future of Drone Tech: Naval Launch Platforms
Naval drones are evolving into drone carriers that launch aerial units via tethers to bypass jamming and expand frontline reach. That is something we're probably going to see within a month or two.
The Future of Drone Tech: Mid-Range Drones
The collapse of Russia's logistical capacity due to mid-range drones makes their current strategy unsustainable. The financial viability of this drone warfare for the Ukrainians is extremely high due to low costs.
The Future of Drone Tech: Long-Range Strikes
Sustained drone attacks will permanently cripple Russia's ability to export oil. By year-end, Russia will lose oil power in western and northwestern Siberian fields.
Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt the Russian Economic Summit
The combination of physical insecurity and technological gaps makes it impossible to justify investment in Russia. The disruption of the summit proves that no place within 600 miles of the Ukrainian border is safe.
The Future of Drone Tech: Israel's Iron Dome
The Iron Dome system is woefully ill-designed to deal with low-level fiber optic drones that evade radar and jamming. This new technology is dramatically shifting the power balance between the Israeli military and Hezbollah.
Should Alberta Secede from Canada?
The Supreme Court of Canada ruled decades ago in the case of Quebec that if there is a plebiscite and they vote for a referendum, you've got to let them go. Independent Alberta would need to negotiate some sort of extensive free trade pact with Canada or apply for U.S. statehood and join the United States.
Magyar Tries to Rebuild the Visegrád Group
The meeting is not a political alliance based on election results but a strategic shift where the Visegrád Group gains voting power. The Central Europeans can now stand up for themselves on day-to-day government issues.
Ebola Outbreak and Delayed Detection by the U.S.
Political decisions have consequences. And one of these means that Ebola may be coming to a town near you.
May 2026 · 23
Will the U.S. and Iran Reach a Deal?
Real negotiations aren't happening because the State Department is listless and without leadership, while Ansum Manir represents American interests in talks with Iran. We will see whether real negotiations that actually involve an American citizen begin once we hit a record low for global inventories.
Can Iran Control Internet Cables in the Gulf?
Iran's targeting of internet cables exposes Gulf nations to blackmail, proving physical data connections are indefensible. The vulnerability of data cables forces a transition to satellites, creating new challenges for space sovereignty.
Civita di Bagnoregio: A Microcosm of Italy
Resilience is really just an exercise in reimagining what it is to be stubborn. They're finding ways to turn their challenges into things that allow them to survive in the way of life that they want.
The U.S. Gets a Taste of Corruption
The U.S. is adopting a strategy similar to Russia's 1990s approach of conflicting guidance requiring bribes. We should expect significantly more things like this.
Taking Naval Options Away from China
New weapon systems deployed by Japan and the US permanently lock China into the western side of the first island chain. China is screwed because every nation in the region now has the ability to destroy its economy by interrupting sea lanes.
Latvia's Political Flux Caused by Drones
The pace of this technological revolution is overwhelming what we understand aerospace, what we understand automation, what we understand war to be. We are about to have some crazy stuff happen in calendar year 2026 as all of this comes to a head in multiple theaters.
Cuba Faces a Humanitarian Crisis
Smashing the Cuban system creates a failed state requiring military intervention and a 20-year rebuilding program rather than partnership. Getting from here to there, especially with this intermediate step of smashing the place first, is definitely the harder, more expensive way to do it.
Is Now a Good Time for China to Invade Taiwan?
China cannot invade Taiwan successfully because the US can cut off its energy supply. The short-term distraction does not change China's overall vulnerability to US energy control.
Using U.S. Energy as Leverage
The United States will try to leverage its energy security and economic strength in order to get whatever it wants out of anyone. It is frustrating to see this leverage used against allies rather than potential foes.
Impacts on the U.S. Power Grid from the Iran War
The United States is insulated from immediate Iran war impacts due to energy export status and geographic location. Indirect supply chain issues may arise later in the year affecting manufacturers.
Iran Diplomacy Has Yet to Begin
Meaningful diplomacy has not begun because Trump refuses to allow lower-level officials to do their jobs. The entire region remains in a holding pattern until Trump realizes only a political deal can end the situation.
Trump Claims the U.S. Killed a Top ISIS Commander || Bonus Video
Knocking off regional leaders has never impacted ground operations despite being done repeatedly. The current administration's approach will likely lead to problems for future administrations.
So You Want to Break Iran...
Forcing Iran to accept a deal requires taking away their transport options rather than attacking oil production. Targeting the shadow fleet in the Indian Ocean is the most effective way to force Iran to the table.
Will the Swiss Cap Their Population?
Limiting population to 10 million ends Switzerland as an advanced economy over the long run. Populist pushes on migration do not match policies that allow the economy to continue at growth rates and wealth levels enjoyed for the last century.
This Ain't Your Father's Tanker War
The U.S. Navy no longer has the ability to impose a strategic reality on the local basis against a fourth-rate security power. It is very, very difficult to restore access to waterways during future conflicts.
Welcome to Captain Phillips' Nightmare
The Red Sea will once again become a no-go zone. This is going from bad to worse in a very short period of time.
Why U.S. Deployments in Germany Matter
This is arguably the most important footprint the United States has anywhere in the world for power projection. That is by far the most expensive way to do it.
Markets Flash Back to the Past
Markets are ignoring permanent structural breaks because they rely on American security guarantees that no longer exist. Get ready to return to the past later this year.
El Jardinero Gets Trimmed by Mexican Authorities
When you have an organization... that doesn't have a clear leader, you tend to get a lot of competition within the factions, and eventually that turns into a shooting war. Mexico's near-term future is probably more fighting as the most violent cartel they have ever had now falls into infighting as well.
Russia Tucks Tail in Mali
Russia's Africa Corps faces an embarrassing retreat across the Sahel because it lacks the capacity to fight or withdraw. The Russian presence across the Sahel will likely end with a humiliating withdrawal from north to south.
Japanese Weapons Are Open for Export
Japan's new ability to export weapons combined with its robotic society will make it a massive drone power. We are utterly unprepared for what it means when the Japanese take a lead in that sector.
The Iran War Approaches a Tipping Point
The US blockade forces Iran to shut in wells permanently, threatening the IRGC's funding. This is the first time the people making decisions will actually feel pain.
Underwater Drones and the Future of Naval Warfare
The global security breakdown necessitates that cargo ships mount their own weapon systems. Cargo ships must mount airborne drones to strike surface threats and maintain trade.
April 2026 · 26
America's Leg Up on Petrochemicals
The Iran war has created a global oil shortage that makes the United States the only functional large-scale supplier of key petrochemicals. The next two years will see a shattering of petrochemical supply chains on a global basis outside of North America.
The Return of Kremlin Terrorism
Russia will exploit broken people and disintegrating far-right groups to create terror cells in the West. Russia will be exposed, but the low volume of people needed to start this process makes it likely.
Italy Gives Trump the Cold Shoulder
The United States is in the Western Hemisphere, and most of its military operations are in the Eastern Hemisphere. So we now have Italy and Spain and France and the United Kingdom that are giving the United States a cold shoulder in any number of ways.
California’s Coming Energy Crisis
We are dealing with the fact that crude oil is shut in. That's not this year, and it's probably not next year either.
Iran War Winners and Losers: North American Energy
High oil prices will force a U.S. export ban and refinery adaptation that hurts producers short-term. The conventional wisdom that a lot of people saw in the first couple of weeks of the conflict really doesn't apply.
Guam and the Practical Impact of Climate Change
Guam is the premier American leaping off point for pretty much all of Asia, but a super typhoon is striking it now and there is nothing else around. There's no really other place to plant a flag and project power from.
A New Era in Hungary: Orbán Gets the Boot
Hungary's election of a pro-European government removes a major obstacle to European unity, but Slovakia's continued alignment with Russia prevents full consensus. The new Hungarian government will quickly restore European norms, yet Slovakia remains a persistent barrier to complete unity.
Say Goodbye to the Global Order
Globalization is ending because naval blockades and attacks on transport infrastructure make global trade impossible. If you are dependent on global agriculture, energy, or manufacturing, you need to look at where you're getting your parts or your inputs.
Bring On the Jet Fuel Shortages
A global jet fuel shortage will last at least a year due to production bottlenecks and lack of substitutes. There will probably be more shooting.
MAGA – Breaking Up Is Hard
Russia is using extreme right-wing figures to break the American political system by targeting the now-dominant MAGA movement, which Trump fails to recognize. MAGA faces the end as a unified political force.
China Tries to Build Sand Bases, Again
The new larger island will sink bigger and crack bigger than previous attempts. The outcome is not worrisome but anticipated as a delightful disaster when military plans based on these flawed islands are tested.
The Blockade of Iran Begins
To pressure the IRGC effectively, the US must block oil exports and prevent drone imports. The blockade is the first action that successfully targets the IRGC's specific financial interests.
The Energy Crisis: Downstream Impacts
The combination of halted Persian Gulf exports and the loss of Russian crude will cause a severe global energy crisis within weeks. It took a war launched by Donald Trump on Iran in order to make Iranian oil legal again.
Trump Goes on a Firing Spree
Trump's administration consists of incompetent appointees chosen for loyalty rather than skill, and firing them will not improve the situation because no better talent exists. The administration is facing more problems, inconsistencies, and incompetence as Trump loses his grip on the presidency.
Winners and Losers of the Iran War: Ukraine and Russia
The region used to export 22 million barrels of crude a day. It is now down to probably something between 10 and 12.
What Does This Ceasefire Actually Mean?
If Trump accepts Iranian terms, it would be the greatest capitulation of American power in the Middle East in the history of the Republic. Trump has either lost his mind or he's gotten so bored of the situation, he's willing to do anything to move on.
The End of the WTO
The collapse of the WTO will trigger decades of conflict among states and within states as existing models fail. The collapse of the WTO will trigger decades of conflict among states and within states as existing models fail.
How to End American Power
Trump's demand for independent military forces guarantees the fastest reduction in American strategic power in our lifetimes. The current administration is actively pushing to create strategic competitors for future generations, a move described as potentially the most stupid thing possible.
So You Want to Take Iran's Oil…
There is no good way to take other countries' oil. We will be in occupation in the Middle East just like we were for the bulk of the last 25 years.
Russia Draws American Blood in Iran
The current administration has failed to treat this deliberate sharing of tactical information as a serious negative development despite the clear threat to US military hardware and personnel. The current administration has failed to treat this deliberate sharing of tactical information as a serious negative development despite the clear threat to US military hardware and personnel.
Iran Is Hitting Saudi Energy Infrastructure Hard
The successful Iranian attack on Jabal exposes the entire Gulf region's energy infrastructure to direct threat and long-term market disruption. Significant damage to Abkhaz could remove five to seven million barrels of crude from the market for years.
A Flawed Trade System in Europe
Europe cannot establish a viable alternative international trade order without the U.S. Navy. The European Union will fail to ratify major new trade deals due to agricultural protectionism and internal delays.
Can the British Reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
There is not a military solution to this problem because no other country has enough naval force. The best scenario is that the US pulls out completely and the Iranians just move on, which is not likely.
The Strait of Hormuz Remains Open...For Iran
The US military is doing nothing to interrupt commercial flows going to and from Iran. Someone please tell Trump because until this is interrupted in some way, two big problems.
U.S. Ground Troops Coming to Iran
Occupying Karg Island is a bad idea because it removes Iran's oil income and invites devastating retaliation. The current plan to occupy Karg Island will end in a bit of a debacle.
The Death of the First-Time Home Buyer
Negative population growth and capital scarcity will prevent housing prices from dropping significantly for first-time buyers this decade. Housing affordability will not improve significantly for the rest of this decade due to structural economic shifts.
March 2026 · 28
Ukraine Strikes Hit Baltic Export Facilities
Infrastructure within about 600 miles of a hostile actor is now completely vulnerable to ongoing cheap drone attacks. We are also going to lose the crude that's coming out of the St.
How to Break Iran
The only viable path to change the Iranian regime is to break the IRGC by crushing its economic assets. The United States must try to remove the IRGC as part of the process to change the regime.
Aluminum Shortages Coming Soon
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will cause Iranian attacks on gas infrastructure to shut down Persian Gulf smelters, creating global aluminum shortages. All six facilities will probably be going offline over the course of the next month if this war continues.
As Fertilizer Falls, Famine Will Follow
Global food production will stall and crash because the rest of the world faces a chronic nitrogen deficit within fifty years. China must think significantly different about its security policy to manage direct access to the Persian Gulf.
Marines, Uranium, and a Symbolic Win?
The administration is looking for a way out and looking for a way to manufacture a success. Now it's like, of course, we need a new.
Trump Gets Introduced to Section 301
Trump is forced to use the slow Section 301 process because his arbitrary tariff approach was ruled illegal and he lacks the political power to get broader authority from Congress. The administration is stuck in a stall because the legal path is blocked and the political path is unavailable.
The U.S. and Mexico Kick Off NAFTA Talks
The U.S. Prioritizes Mexico over Canada despite better economic outcomes with Canada because political hostility prevents choosing the obvious path. The U.S. Should prioritize Canada to avoid wasting resources rebuilding infrastructure before global trade collapses.
Iran Gets a Little Less Weird
Donald Trump extended Iran's deadline by five days. Backing down from the threat represents a victory in the age of Trump II.
Russia’s Ukraine War Lessons Are Hitting the Gulf
Russia has shared drone lessons with Iran, forcing the Western Gulf to run out of interceptors quickly. The Western Gulf is very close to running out of defensive firepower against incoming drones.
The U.S. Dollar: Short vs. Long Term
The U.S. dollar will rise over decades due to structural strengths but drop in the short term due to active policy choices. The result is at the moment, in a moment of global crisis, surprisingly small gains for the US dollar.
The Shield of the Americas
Aggressive US military intervention in Latin America to combat drug cartels risks damaging vital trade relationships with Mexico. While the US can interfere deeply in the region, it cannot solve drug problems without risking the trade network.
Israel Just Hit Iran's Energy System
If this is a conscious decision to change tactics and start going after the power infrastructure, Iran's going to become a very nasty place very soon. If this is a conscious decision to change tactics and start going after the power infrastructure, Iran's going to become a very nasty place very soon.
Sweden Grabs Its First Shadow Fleet Vessel
The simultaneous exit of multiple crude sources and the capture of the shadow fleet will cause a global vessel shortage. The collapse of Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan crude combined with port shortages creates a major logistical crisis.
The U.S. Helps India and Russia Helps Iran
The Trump administration granted India temporary waivers to import Russian crude after Persian Gulf supplies were cut off. Meaningful policy change will not occur until pro-Russian advisors like Witkoff and Gabbard are removed.
The Iran War: Enter Sting Interceptors
Preserving global infrastructure now runs through Kiev, as Gulf states realize the need for Ukrainian tech. The best chance for preserving infrastructure runs through Kiev, and Gulf states will likely invest immense cash there.
Iraq, Oil, and a Break for Chevron
American oil interests moving into Iraq were thin. Chevron is in the first position to enter negotiations.
Why Would Europe Trust France with ALL the Nukes?
Europeans have lost confidence in the United States and will develop independent nuclear deterrents because NATO no longer guarantees their security. In the next few years, many European countries will get their own deterrent because they must make decisions that not only the Americans don't like, but other Europeans don't like either.
The U.S. LUCAS Rivals Iran's Shahed
These are exactly the sort of weapons that we need in this transition phase from going for an old, very, very high cost system to whatever the future of drone warfare happens to look like. This achieves that basic concept at a fraction of the cost, assuming it works.
The Iran War’s New Targets: Oil, Water, and Global Chaos
Targeting civilian water and oil infrastructure will cause rapid decivilization and mass death in the Gulf. The shift to civilian targets signals preparation for a paralyzation of general movement and global chaos.
Iceland and Norway Ponder EU Membership
Iceland and Norway are reconsidering EU membership because the United States is acting as a predatory security guarantor demanding Greenland. The Nordic countries are shifting their strategic policy away from relying solely on the United States.
Belgium Seizes Shadow Fleet Vessel
The shadow fleet will be destroyed by US and European actions combined with the war in Iran. The entire Shadow Fleet will be wrapped up here in a matter of weeks to a few months.
The Iran War: China’s Discrete Supply Route
The current strategy allows China to supply Iran with drone components while risking its own energy security. The United States must decide whether to confront China or stop the vessels docking.
Panama Boots China from the Canal
China's position in the Western Hemisphere is based on one very stupid assumption: that the United States will actively keep the sea safe for Chinese shipping. The United States possesses the tools to reshape diplomacy and economic activity in the region.
The Iran War - Day 6: Energy Disruption, Regime Fragmentation, and Ukraine
The conflict has caused immediate, long-term energy disruptions while shifting Iran's warfare to a fragmented, non-political state. The deployment of cheap Ukrainian counter-drone technology offers hope despite the ongoing strategic difficulties.
Targeting Problems in Ukraine
The United States is starting to point its finger at Ukraine about the targets it's supposed to attack in Russian territory. And if you want to talk about something that's going to hit Russia's bottom line, that's the way to do it.
The Iran War: Interceptors and a Costly Mistake
The United States's decision to cut off military connections with Ukraine has a big price because that technology hasn't filtered up to the U.S. military. The American decision to not engage the Ukrainians where they have been defending themselves against Russian-launched Iranian Shahed drones now for three years is having a real price.
Buying Time With Drugs
Monoclonal antibodies are too expensive and ineffective to solve aging. Focus on exercise, diet, and emotional living from birth to extend life.
Iran War Escalates: 20 Million Barrels a Day of Crude Oil Disrupted
Sustained disruptions to global oil supply generate awful outcomes due to inelastic demand. The world is heading toward a real crisis because oil markets are stuck in an unstable holding pattern.
February 2026 · 24
Attack on Iran Underway
A collapse of the government in Iran is not particularly likely without a ground force. We will find out real quick whether or not the United States military has the power to do something about that dispersed nuclear program.
China's Alleged Nuclear Test
The accusation lacks technical credibility and likely serves a political purpose rather than reflecting reality. The administration is pushing this line without sharing evidence with the wider world.
U.S. Boots on the Ground in Nigeria
The U.S. deployment marks a shift from relying on rhetoric to gathering facts about a complex security environment. The outcome will depend on whether these troops can hold Islamic terror at bay before it spreads to central or southern Nigeria.
Ukraine Goes on the Offensive
Cutting off Starlink allows outnumbered Ukrainian forces to isolate and wipe out small Russian groups. For the moment, Ukrainian forces are pushing forward in a way critics said was never possible again.
Finding Rare Earths in Japanese Mud
The Japanese offshore rare earth project is unlikely to change production math due to low concentration and high costs. Japan will continue trying new technologies because it is the least resource-rich major power.
The Ukraine War, Drones, and Starlink
Private companies now control military munitions and information, ending the era where nation-states determine security. Europe will soon clash with private institutions like Musk's as they try to rein in or redirect them.
Armenia’s Not Getting Off the Struggle Bus Just Yet
Armenia is effectively being sold to the United States as the cheapest way to lock it into the American orbit. There is a stable basis for the moment to work with in bilateral relations in a way that really doesn't exist between the United States and any other country in the world.
The Supreme Court Just Ruled Trump's Tariffs Unconstitutional || Free Patreon Preview
The U.S. Supreme Court just ruled that Donald Trump's tariffs are unconstitutional and that only Congress has the authority to tariff countries over a prolonged period of time. Trump is not going to abandon the tariffs.
Cuba Is Running Out of Time
Removing Venezuela's energy support will trigger a prolonged crisis and potential government collapse in Cuba. Regardless of details, there is going to be a show soon due to the fuel shortage.
I've Got This Bridge to Sell You…
Canada must accept U.S. terms because it lacks internal infrastructure. The alternative is to not build or use the bridge, in which Canada remains fractured and loses access to the world's largest investment and commercial market.
India Takes on the Shadow Fleet (Bonus Video)
India's raid on shadow fleet vessels signals a major geopolitical shift that could cripple Russia's war economy and force a broad structured rearrangement of international politics. If the United States and India align on these economic and strategic matters, we are looking at the single biggest shift in international politics of at least the last four years.
The U.S. Navy Goes Down Under
The U.S. Navy's plan to station submarines in Australia assumes the global system is broken beyond repair. Creating conditions that force a broken global system raises concerns about stability.
Japan Sees the Writing on the Wall
Japan is starting to lay the groundwork for going its own way because the American alliance is no longer guaranteed. The Japanese response to whatever happens can actually be pretty quick.
Japan's Debt Crisis Is Just the Beginning
The structural nature of the environment demographically and strategically is arguing for far bigger deficits moving forward. I don't know what is going to happen with debt.
Trump Announces $12B Rare Earth Stockpile
A $12 billion stockpile is insufficient because true independence requires building domestic processing infrastructure which currently lacks funding. Today, we are building the equivalent of a piggy bank that we still have to fill up.
The End of Nuclear Arms Control
The end of US-Russia arms control guarantees a new era of massive global nuclear proliferation. This trend of country after country building nuclear weapons will last for at least the next 15 years.
The Two-Speed EU of the Future
Europe cannot reform its institutions quickly enough because it lacks the cultural and legal structures for federalism, and no devastating conflict has yet occurred to force change. The EU will likely fracture under pressure rather than negotiate incrementally into a more federal structure.
Is Venezuela Ready to Move On?
Venezuela must avoid anarchy or civil war by using amnesty and truth-telling to build a new society. This unexpected step offers a rare moment of optimism for Venezuela's future.
The Real Winners After a Chinese Collapse
Investing in physical infrastructure that replaces Chinese industrial output is the only way to profit from a collapse. This approach is a long-term play and it is not a financial one.
India: Overhyped or Global Player
India matters not as a traditional global power but as a strategic broker controlling energy access. If the United States steps back, India will become the broker for global energy trade.
Electronic Warfare Innovations and Exports
New electronic warfare detection systems will spread globally to disrupt civilian communications. Technologies from hot zones will outwit pre-existing systems in unexpected places.
What's Wrong with the EU-India Trade Deal?
There is no free trade on a transcontinental or trans-oceanic basis unless there's freedom of the seas and global rule of law. Countries must develop an internal regional structure to support trade rather than seeking global deals.
Purging China's Central Military Commission
Political purges guarantee the collapse of institutions being reformed if the goal is merely political control. Today, functionally, China's military does not work.
The End of the Shadow Fleet? – French Edition
The French seizure marks the start of dismantling the shadow fleet, causing severe economic pain for Russia and Iran. The next six months will be wild in energy markets as the fleet is dismantled.
January 2026 · 26
U.S. Trade Talks with the UK
The United Kingdom must accept US regulatory dominance because its demographics make independence impossible. The UK has no viable alternative but to submit to US terms.
France Hits the Demographic Point of No Return
Countries aging out now face economic dissolution because the world is no longer young enough to buy their exports. Economic dissolution is expected within a decade for Germany and China due to rapid aging.
Canada's China Option
Canada has no viable alternative trading partner because all provinces trade more with the United States than with each other. The United States gains a uniquely beneficial deal by accessing Canadian workforce and infrastructure without paying for them.
Rolling Back Regulations in the U.S.
Donald Trump's second term creates a dangerous situation where outdated regulations remain on the books while the administration refuses to enforce them. The solution is for the government to be the government, but the government can't be the government without people.
The Semiconductor Tariff Nightmare
The new semiconductor tariff regime will freeze high-end usage and poison U.S. reindustrialization. The policy is a horribly designed tariff that will severely chill American manufacturing.
Good Luck, Texas (Prepare for the Cold Front)
Texas faces significant but manageable risks from the cold front due to its isolated grid and regional production vulnerabilities. Recent infrastructure improvements suggest sporadic outages are possible, but mass blackouts are unlikely.
Lessons From Japan's Demographic Collapse
Aging populations combined with broken supply chains create de-civilizational risks for nations outside the US-Japan alliance. Aligning with Japan and the US provides the most favorable security and economic access.
Latin American Militaries Can't Stop the U.S.
The United States can easily defeat Latin American militaries but lacks the systems to manage the aftermath effectively. The U.S. government is unprepared for this, and U.S. corporations are unprepared for this because for the last 80 years, we have drilled into every American company that rule of law on a global basis is the first issue.
The End of U.S. Military Deployments?
Withdrawing from key global bases would force rivals to build independent power, guarantee higher defense costs and long-term security challenges. The current footprint is optimized to avoid spending money or lives while controlling global security.
Venezuela's End: Peter Goes Squirrel Killin'
The US action against Venezuela was not a dress rehearsal for attacking Iran or other nations. The US will likely pursue a muscular policy toward Iran, but not through direct regime removal.
Why on Earth Would We Take Greenland?
The United States taking Greenland is one of the dumbest ideas that I have heard in my life. So no, not worth it.
Colombia Avoids War with the U.S.
Colombia avoids war with the United States due to shared strategic interests and a unique security alignment. Future cooperation depends on fixing infrastructure and adapting drug interdiction strategies to new realities.
Venezuela’s End: Was a Deal Struck?
No deal exists because Russia and China lack the ability to offer security guarantees. The US will completely dismantle China's position in the hemisphere with minimal effort this year.
Venezuela Offers Trump an Oil Bribe
Venezuela must sell oil immediately or shut down production entirely. This deal could end Venezuela as an oil power right now.
Venezuela's End: Next on the Chopping Block
The United States is shifting from isolationism to active intervention in the Western Hemisphere to prevent foreign powers from gaining influence. While US intervention may succeed in destabilizing targets, reconstructing stable nations remains historically difficult and often fails.
The New Ukraine Proxy War
The war has evolved into a proxy conflict between Europe and China. The United States is failing to keep pace with the changing rules of war.
No Immigrants & Negative Growth = Canada’s Economic Tipping Point
Closing borders without a massive change in demographic structures risks hollowing out the entire economic fabric of the country. Canada must choose between accepting higher nationalism or enduring the Trump administration to secure necessary trade deals.
"Death to the Dictator" Protests in Iran
Iran is having a real problem adapting to the Industrial Revolution, which argues for a change in system. Just don't expect it to be overnight.
Venezuela's End: The Oil Question
Venezuela cannot maintain its Orinoco Belt production due to a lack of skilled labor and capital. The Orinoco Belt production will likely collapse to zero without foreign investment and expertise.
The US Navy Just Seized a Russian Tanker
The US seizure of a Russian tanker destroys the legal cover for the shadow fleet, causing its collapse and disrupting global oil supplies. We are at the beginning of a very dramatic period in human history as the global trade system sees one of its primary methods of keeping running energy starting to break down.
The US Economy Is (Kind of, Sort of) Growing
The US economy is growing artificially due to data center bubbles and wealthy spending while the majority cuts back. When this economic structure cracks, it will hurt more than necessary because growth relies on unstable factors.
US Foreign Policy After Trump
The United States is flying blind in foreign policy due to the collapse of bipartisan consensus and the gutting of planning institutions. The country must wait for a new political force to emerge and rebuild the structure, a process historically taking about a decade.
Venezuela's End: Reviving the Monroe Doctrine
The United States is returning home to focus on the Western Hemisphere. Venezuela now imports 80% of its food because only one major American company remains operational enough to generate capital.
The Beginning of Venezuela's End: Part 2
Venezuela is a dead state where civilization will disintegrate. We are at the beginning of a long descending spiral into chaos, starvation, famine, civil war, and mass out-migration.
Forced Reproduction in China: The 3-Child Policy
Forcing people to have children would require changing the residency style of the country and pushing them back to the outskirts. The Chinese no longer have enough people to even attempt, regardless of what the government tries to force upon its population.
Syria Turns Violent...Again
The Syrian desert is inherently unstable, and without strong state control or deep US intervention, ISIS will grow stronger. Expect continued chaos in Syria unless an outside power gets deeply involved.
December 2025 · 25
World's Largest Nuclear Plant Coming Back Online in Japan
Japan's unique geography forces a redundant power system that allows it to survive global energy breakdowns. Japan is better positioned than other countries to handle future energy supply disruptions.
The Beginning of the End of the Shadow Fleet
The collapse of the Shadow Fleet will cause a multi-phase shock hitting transport and production in at least two countries. Europeans will come up with something much more appropriate to their tool set for interdiction.
Help Wanted - The US Needs More Workers
Inflation is cooked into the system regardless of whatever else goes right or goes wrong. The only option is to increase productivity by adding new technology because capital is also in short supply.
Sub-Sea Drone Strike on Russian Sub
Sub-sea drones represent a significant threat to Russian ports but are not a game changer in modern naval warfare due to their limited guidance capabilities. The attack marks the functional end of the Russian Black Sea Fleet within 12 months.
The Beginning of Venezuela's End
The blockade will cause immediate food riots and a civil breakdown in Venezuela while triggering a massive global energy shock. The outcomes for Venezuela are beyond dire, leading to a general breakdown of civilization over the next several months.
Ukraine War Peace Talks
The current peace plan guarantees a multi-theater war if implemented because it ignores Russian strategic goals. The best outcome is a failed deal leading to ongoing weapons transfers and assistance.
Ukraine Hits the Caspian and Europe Goes Nuclear
Europe is forming new nuclear powers to compensate for American withdrawal from security commitments. This situation represents just the beginning as the United States dares Europeans to look after their own security.
Mexico Horses Around with Tariffs
Mexico's new tariff bill locks the US into a privileged economic union. The structure guarantees US-Mexico cooperation for the next two decades regardless of politics.
Bonus Video: The Death of the US Tech Sector: Part 2
The US tech sector is dying because the demographic window has closed and cheap capital is gone. The future of tech doesn't look great because there will be fewer breakthroughs and manufacturing capacity is lost.
Bonus Video: The Death of the US Tech Sector: Part 1
Tariffs actively disincentivize American participation in global supply chains. When deglobalization gets worse and China goes away, we will have very little to work from.
North Carolina's Silicon Mines: Leverage for the US?
Anyone who tells you that the Chinese can overtake us in this industry is ridiculous. But also, anyone who tells you that we could do it ourselves is ridiculous.
The Russian Breakdown
Russia will not immediately fall if it loses Ukraine, but long-term demographic shifts guarantee its eventual collapse. The end of the Russian Federation before the end of the century is pretty much certain.
Who Needs National Security Guidance Anyways
The new national security document functions as a domestic political campaign tool rather than strategic guidance. The inability to build institutions while tearing them down reduces global influence for decades.
What Would a Conflict in Taiwan Look Like?
Any meaningful attack on Taiwan is not just the beginning of the end of China's strategic power. It's the end of China as an entity.
Uh Oh for Space
Russia may intentionally disrupt low Earth orbit to make space unusable for others. If Russia cannot use space meaningfully anymore, making the orbit unusable benefits them by removing competition.
Israel Is Defending...Germany?!?
Germany is rearming with Israeli technology because Russian missiles from Kaliningrad threaten its survival. Germany must integrate this system immediately to prevent Poland from being the next target if the war expands.
What's The Deal in Canada?
Prime Minister Carney and Alberta Premier Smith reached a compromise on energy and carbon pricing after years of conflict. I'm hopeful they've got a lot of work ahead of them.
U.S. War Crimes in Venezuela? Here's What's Happening
The U.S. is engaging in war crimes and encouraging drug smuggling through contradictory policies. The world is currently all over the place regarding these chaotic events.
Ukraine Targets the CPC in Recent Drone Strikes
Combined attacks on Black Sea and Baltic routes approach the upper limit of removable global oil flow. Calendar year 2026 is predicted to start with a major energy disruption.
Where Would I Put a US Semiconductor Fab?
The Midwest is the only viable location for a full semiconductor sector transplant. The obstacles are many, but the investments will be huge.
Global Depression Is Coming Sooner Than Expected
Trump's policies are not the primary cause of an impending global depression; rather, they are accelerating a collapse that was already inevitable due to long-term demographic shifts and deglobalization trends. Current U.S. policies make the situation worse for the United States than it needs to be.
Kessler Syndrome and the Future of Space
Adding more satellites to a crowded orbit creates a risk of triggering a cascade of debris that renders low Earth orbit permanently unusable for space exploration. A catastrophic debris event would likely clear the orbit within a decade, allowing for a fresh start after a ten-year setback.
South Korea and the US Make a Nuclear Deal
South Korea could build nuclear missiles on new submarines within a year, forcing Japan and Taiwan to follow suit. This decision might increase South Korean security but will come at the cost of introducing an arms race to the broader region.
Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan to End the Ukraine War
The plan forces Ukraine to never apply for NATO membership and enshrine that refusal into their constitution. I consider that a win.
The Reality of Electricity in America
The US cannot build a digital future without nuclear power or coal. Anyone who cannot lay it out like that to you has been blinded by a degree of ideology or personal interests.
November 2025 · 25
Navigating Reindustrialization in a Deglobalized World
Deglobalization and tariffs will prevent a broad civilian economic boom despite increased defense spending, as the necessary infrastructure for industrialization cannot be built quickly enough. The civilian sector will not benefit from the military buildup, and critical technologies like AI will face decades of delay due to supply chain constraints.
Can Anyone Replicate the US Shale Revolution?
Australia cannot easily replicate the US shale revolution due to geological distance from cities, water scarcity, and lack of mineral rights. Only Argentina, Mexico, and Canada are positioned closer to achieving similar shale success than Australia.
Child Care for All? In New Mexico?
For the first time in the United States, we actually have somebody at the state level that is thinking about what the future of the demographic profile looks like and what the future of the workforce looks like. I call that good news.
Ukraine's Energy Scandal
Ukraine's energy corruption stems from a Soviet-era focus on volume over efficiency, which war has now exposed. The collapse of the old statist model will force a significant overhaul of Ukraine's remaining energy infrastructure.
China's New Ship: Enter the Sichuan
The new Chinese carrier is designed only for regional intimidation within the first island chain and is useless against major naval powers. The vessel serves no purpose beyond intimidating weaker neighbors in the immediate periphery.
Ukraine’s New Drone Killer: The Octopus
The Octopus drone represents a potential shift in warfare if it can be produced cheaply enough to hunt other drones. We will know by the end of the year if this new defense works or not.
Demographic Lessons from the Mongols
Shrinking populations render existing economic models obsolete, requiring new systems to be invented. Change is guaranteed, but the time it takes for new systems to settle remains unpredictable.
Can 3D Printing Save U.S. Manufacturing?
While 3D printing will find more niches as deglobalization kicks in, it will always be coming from behind when it comes to mass application because of that speed issue. The speaker likes the technology and wishes we would hurry up and get there, acknowledging its incremental improvement despite current limitations.
The AI Race to Regression
We are in a moment right now where AI is possible with ChatGPT 5.0 and all the rest, that will not last. We're going to see the beginning of that within this next decade.
The Fourth Shale Revolution: Supermajor Tech
The shale revolution is nowhere near done. So this year is not the last year of the shale revolution.
Crippling the Kremlin with Russian Sanctions
The sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil will cripple the Kremlin because they cannot operate their own assets. This marks the first time this administration has shown awareness of political and economic realities on the ground.
Myanmar Is More Important Than You Think
Myanmar holds strategic value for global manufacturing, drug supply reduction, and Chinese trade alternatives. December elections will determine if Myanmar becomes a step toward Western access or remains under military control.
The Semiconductor Frontier
The semiconductor industry faces a critical juncture where new technology could either revive Intel or leave it as a solid second-best player, all while remaining dangerously dependent on fragile global supply chains. While there is a little sliver of hope that high numerical aperture technology might simplify supply chains, the industry remains overextended and threatened.
New Strategies in the Ukraine War
Ukraine's shift to targeting moving trains and uninsured oil tankers creates a new, dangerous phase in the war. The speaker believes the next month or two will reveal how this new strategy plays out.
The Last Generation to Protest
The places where youth protests can change government structure are becoming fewer and less important. The global stage for youth protests is shrinking as major economies age out of the protest phase.
How Was Trump's Trip to Asia?
Trade relationships with aging nations must eventually go to zero regardless of political reasons. The back and forth and the ebb and flow continues without final resolution.
Imminent US Strikes Against Venezuelan Government
Overthrowing the Venezuelan government is easy, but rebuilding it afterward will be messy. Whatever comes next to Venezuela, it's going to be messy.
Markets Drop After Fed Rate Cut
The Fed faces a hardwired box where investment is difficult, consumption is expensive, and inflation is rising. The Fed is in a bit of a box because the White House is part of the problem and baby boomers are no longer part of the solution.
Announcing My New Book: Acceptable Range
The speaker announces his fifth book, Acceptable Range, which will be released between late 2026 and 2027. This new work is a fictional story set against the backdrop of globalization's collapse.
Why I'm Bullish on Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia is well positioned to take advantage of both regional trade and demographics. These countries look good on their own.
Will Japan and South Korea Gang Up on China?
Japan and South Korea cannot form a meaningful alliance against China due to historical hatred and shared economic vulnerabilities. The United States is moving in a direction that damages its relationship with Japan, causing Japan to evaluate other options for its security.
Slavery Can't Fix China's Demography
China cannot fix its demographic collapse by importing a massive workforce because neighboring countries lack sufficient populations or are hostile. Current economic models like fascism, socialism, communism, or capitalism will simply not work much longer for many countries.
These Six Countries Are Running Out of People
Six specific countries face severe demographic challenges due to unique historical or geographical factors. India and Brazil must improve birth rates immediately to avoid future demographic degradation.
The Future of Bolivian Lithium
Bolivia faces tough times because it lacks the legal structure for lithium extraction while global demand trends are fading. The speaker concludes that Bolivia is currently hanging at a soft point for commodities with tough times ahead.
Regime Change for Venezuela
Removing the Maduro government will trigger a civil war and state collapse that makes conditions worse than they currently are. The operation will likely cause almost one-third of the population to flee the country again.
October 2025 · 24
A Reckoning for Pakistan
Pakistan faces an internal reckoning because it was built for external warfare and relies on globalization. The Punjabis certainly aren't going to go down quietly as the built-in tension of the Pakistani state finally being laid bare for all to see.
Bonus Video - Russia: Trump Pulls the Trigger
Trump's current sanctions are insufficient to change Russia's view because they lack the scale and administrative capacity needed for a total embargo. The Trump administration faces significant challenges in building the government structures required to enforce effective secondary sanctions.
Trump and Petro Revive the Colombian Cocaine Industry
The US withdrawal of aid will force Colombian farmers back to coca cultivation. The Trump administration has established the perfect environment to make sure cocaine acreage explodes.
A $20 Billion Band-Aid for Argentina
Argentina has proven that if you get up every day for decades and try to figure out how I can make it a little bit worse, you can overpower geography. The United States is a powerful country largely because of its geography, but Argentina has the second best geography in the world.
Qatar Bribes Its Way into Idaho
The US must accept Qatari bribes and funding to maintain its status as a global great power. The US has no choice but to accept these arrangements as the price of its global influence.
Venezuela and the War Powers Act
the president still can do whatever he wants so long as Congress does not act. unless and until Congress starts acting like Congress, the Trump administration has full leave to do whatever it wants legally.
Congressional Midterms: Electoral Bloodbath or More of the Same
The midterms will be a redux of what we've seen the last three election cycles because no alternative parties exist. Electoral bloodbath is not seen, but a broad electoral reset over the remainder of the decade remains a different question.
Tomahawk Missiles for Ukraine
The speaker argues that sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine is unlikely because the required land-based delivery systems are not yet ready. If such weapons were sent, it would place the US in a fundamentally new position using Moscow for target practice.
So, You Want to Invade Venezuela...
Knocking off Nicolas Maduro and his government is not the hard part. The hard part is then keeping the city and the country alive.
Israel-Palestine: Credit Where Credit's Due
The current peace is a temporary success due to Kushner's business leverage, but it will fail because land scarcity and contradictory agreements remain unresolved. The deal is built on contradictions and everyone agreeing to disagree, meaning violence will return sooner or later.
All That Bitchin' Won't Keep China Around
The trade relationship with China is going to zero regardless of tariffs or politics. Everyone needs to plan for a world without China sooner or later.
Should China Invade Siberia?
Invading Russia is never as easy, it sounds. No sign that that is happening right now.
Life After Trump: President JD Vance
The short answer is no idea. It will not happen because of the circle of people he surrounds himself with, which makes it overall a risky bet.
Would You Like Some Plutonium with That?
The US lacks the materials processing capabilities and civilian plutonium infrastructure required to safely implement MOX fuel for grid expansion. The only country in the world that has decided that putting weapons-grade plutonium in civilian hands is a good idea is Russia.
A Dark Future for American Agriculture
You need to prepare for the world where China doesn't buy any of your stuff. The only possible way that we exit this next five-year period with all of our producers is if somehow the Trump administration works out a French-style support system.
A Break for Ukraine
The potential provision of precision targeting information could destroy Russia's primary income source and force allies to stop subsidizing the war. Once the intel is provided, for every day that it is there, the Ukrainians will definitely be striking, leading to a dramatic change in the course of the war.
A Rare Sign of Life in Congress
The Republican Party has effectively ceased to exist as an institution, but the withdrawal of E.J. Antoni's nomination shows Congress is finally considering acting independently. This event marks a very good day because Congress is finally considering doing its job as an independent branch of government.
America’s Generals Gathered for...That?
Pete Hegseth is the least qualified defense secretary in American history and his policies will cripple recruitment. The speaker considers the event a win despite the bumbling leadership and lack of encouragement.
And You Thought the Jones Act Was Dumb...
The Jones Act is one of the dumbest laws ever adopted by the United States. The Jones Act now faces competition from new tariffs affecting the American economy.
Testing NATO (Trump and Europe Prepare for the Worst)
Russia tests NATO capabilities to determine if allies can fight effectively without overwhelming force. NATO states will begin massive rearmament regardless of the results of this initial testing.
Say Goodbye to the World's Trade Routes
Globalization breaks down and military alliances fracture, causing multiple trade routes to face danger simultaneously. Middle East shipments look really bad, the Red Sea is not much better, and the Baltic is something to keep an eye on.
What Does a Post US NATO Look Like?
Europe must reorganize into a military grouping led by France, Poland, and the Scandinavians because the current economic union is failing due to demographics. Sweden, Poland, and France are the ones to watch the most in terms of economics and defense.
10:50
The Most Violent Chapter of Israel and Palestine
The current extreme violence is driven by a unique convergence of strategic emptiness, political incentives for war, and a broken information system. There is literally no place for the Gazans to go if they were to be relocated, so extreme violence will continue.
+3
Immigration and Tariff Policies Stunt US Economy
The combination of collapsing immigration and high tariffs will generate an economic adjustment soon. Manufacturing is the sector to look at first because it is easiest to relocate supply chains outside of the country.
September 2025 · 21
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan Sign A Mutual Defense Treaty
The United States is getting out of the mutual security business. We should expect to see more and more things like this as we are not in that world anymore.
The Pressure Is Dialing Up on Russia’s Oil Network
The Russians are losing flexibility within their system. We could be, three years into this war, finally on the verge of a crude shortage because the Russians just can't play.
Nvidia Purchases $5 Billion of Intel Stock
The partnership between NVIDIA and Intel does not speed up the process or move the needle for anyone. NVIDIA has design capabilities but lacks the manufacturing technology required to compete at the highest level.
The Swiss Are Screwed
Either the Swiss are going to have a catastrophic reduction in their standard of living as industries basically can no longer function in the new environment, or they have to get in bed with the monster that is at the door and that's the European Union. Not a great position to be in, but that's where they are.
Ukraine (And Everyone Else) Develops Glide Bombs
The era of American strategic primacy with global reach is now over. It is now a question about managing the withdrawal and dealing with the consequences of that.
Everybody Wants to Bomb Qatar
The United States looks toothless after allowing an attack on its own base location. This situation will have consequences here, there, and a lot of places in between.
The Federal Reserve's Dilemma
The Federal Reserve faces a no-win situation where it cannot balance growth and inflation due to conflicting policies. Governance is hard, especially when you're a quasi-independent institution like the Federal Reserve.
Why Trump's Stance on Canada Makes Sense
An independent power on America's borders bears a security risk and is strategically unsound. Annexation is financially impossible, but maintaining Canada as an independent neighbor contradicts long-term US strategic interests.
Syria and the Return of the March
Syria is returning to being a march. We will see more of the world looking like Syria.
Ukraine Hammers Russian Oil Infrastructure
If Russian crude cannot flow due to offline infrastructure, the Russian economic situation would then become a lot more difficult because oil sales remain what they have always been for Moscow. With politics changed and economic dependencies shifted, we should expect a lot more Russian crude going offline.
While I Was Gone, Part 4: US Security
The administration is leaking classified information massively and using the military for urban pacification. We are nearing a point where severe degradations in our models will take decades to unfuck.
While I Was Gone, Part 3: Economic Status
The Trump administration is pushing the US toward a constrained managed demand model that sacrifices efficiency for government control. The US should wait and observe other nations before adopting any new economic system, ensuring it is coherent and geared toward American strengths.
While I Was Gone, Part 2: US Health
The US bioweapons defense system has stopped because mRNA technology allows rapid production, but a freak show running HHS prevents effective response. The United States is now basically sitting in a box, digging itself into a hole and not even looking out for future threats.
While I Was Gone, Part 1: Trade Policy Updates
The current trade policy creates a significant breakdown of American manufacturing due to legal uncertainty and lack of government staffing. The situation remains unfavorable for the United States regardless of the Supreme Court's final decision on tariffs.
Should the UAE Invest in a Tech Sector?
The UAE lacks the skilled labor required to operate high-end semiconductor facilities. The resulting data center project will be too expensive and located too far from demand to be useful.
The Automation of War Drags On
Processing data is not the same as thinking. Autonomous weapon systems are simply not anywhere close.
Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap
Countries avoid the middle-income trap only by combining openness, advanced education, rule of law, and a growing population. The United States has done everything right but now faces a generational crisis due to falling birth rates below replacement levels.
Automation of US Agriculture
Automation cannot solve the agricultural worker shortage because current technology lacks mobility and dexterity for delicate tasks. A separation in pricing will occur between automatable crops and those requiring human labor.
Can China Break Through the First Island Chain?
China cannot break through the First Island Chain without the United States because it lacks the resources to conquer the necessary territories. An alliance of the First Island Chain nations is not needed because China is incapable of taking on the whole thing.
George Jetson Would Be Disappointed with Autonomous Vehicles
George Jetson would be disappointed with autonomous vehicles because the necessary infrastructure and chips are disappearing. Individual person vehicles will not be autopiloted or electric for much longer, though truck convoys may succeed.
Will the Drought in Iran Cause Political Change?
The short answer is probably not that this will cause political change. They're moving in the right direction in order to buy themselves more time.
August 2025 · 19
Smokey Bear's Best Friend: fire.airnow.gov
Smoke forecasts depend on moisture conditions in the Rockies, drying swamps in Canada, and atmospheric river patterns. The speaker advises using fire.airnow.gov to plan trips while avoiding dry areas in Colorado and Canada.
Ukraine Strikes Russia's Druzhba Oil Pipeline
Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil transit aim to cut off funding for Iran and North Korea. This is potentially the most dramatic economic shift seen in the war so far.
A Peace Deal for Azerbaijan and Armenia?
A successfully integrated Azerbaijan means a dead Armenia. The idea of putting 10,000 or 20,000 American troops on a landlocked chunk of territory surrounded by hostile powers with no supply lines, that's how you lose 10,000 or 20,000 troops.
American and Indian Relations Sour
Right-wing populist governments prioritize national uniqueness over international cooperation, destabilizing global consensus and increasing conflict potential. Decision-making becomes more hostile as right-wing governments rebel against the existing order to build their own.
Russian Evolutions in the Ukraine War
Russia has fundamentally changed its approach by reviving an industrial strategy to build capacity domestically and overwhelm defenses with decoys. This shift allows Russia to coordinate drone and missile attacks to obliterate traditional front lines.
The Alaska Summit: Putin and Trump Talk War
The US must use forceful military action because diplomatic arguments fail to address Russia's existential drive for border security. Trump will face a flat refusal or lies from Putin and must decide on forceful action.
Trump Trade Talks: NAFTA Deals Stall
The US must secure trade deals with Canada and Mexico to prevent an economic catastrophe, ensure manufacturing stability, and prepare for a post-China world. It is highly probable a deal will happen because NAFTA 2 was negotiated by the first Trump administration.
Trump Wants a Second Opinion on Labor Statistics
Trump's attack on statisticians destroys U.S. data integrity and mirrors Hugo Chavez's destruction of Venezuela. The administration will continue to function only if advisors stop speaking truth to power.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Artificial Intelligence
AI in war will not happen as expected because the semiconductor supply chain cannot survive de-globalization. The problem will become obvious in the 2050s.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: What's Ahead
Drones and new materials science will rapidly replace human soldiers in dangerous roles. We are only at the beginning of radical military applications driven by evolving technology.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Water Wars
Industrial bases and military power require water at the start of development. Uzbekistan will likely invade Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to control remaining water sources.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Recruitment
The military must recruit a diverse population with varied skill sets to adapt to rapid technological changes. The military cannot limit service based on identity because it needs everyone who has an interest of being in the U.S. military.
Trump Trade Talks: Japan Gets a Deal
The headline figure for tariffs going for goods coming from Japan to the United States is now 15%. We are, once again, at the beginning of this process, we are nowhere near the end.
Trump Trade Talks: US-EU Strike a Deal
The headline deal is a memorandum of understanding with no legal binding power. Real negotiations on investment and irritants have not even begun yet.
Why Trump's Stance on Ukraine Has Changed - Part 2
Russia views this war as its last chance to survive and has more nukes than the US, making it dangerous to leave them unchecked. Trump is now directing policy against Putin after realizing he was being lied to, though the specific outcome remains uncertain.
Why Trump's Stance on Ukraine Has Changed - Part 1
The war happened because of how the Russians view their world. This is just the next phase of Putin's plan, of the Russian plan, that, if anything, was written 500 years ago.
China vs. Mother Nature: Can the Dikes Hold the Rain?
Mass drownings in the capital would shatter political coherence. If conditions worsen, China could become underwater, leading to panic and widespread destruction.
Inflation Ticks Up Under Trump-2
Tariffs and immigration crackdowns are driving inflation through housing, food, transport, and labor costs. The speaker finds it dubious that a coherent second phase exists due to political gridlock.
What It Means to Be a State (France and Palestine)
External recognition of Palestine as a state achieves nothing because it lacks contiguous territory, unified government, defined borders, and economic independence. A solution to the Palestinian problem starts with talks with the Israeli government because Israel holds functional veto power.
July 2025 · 24
Keep an Eye on Industrial Construction Spending
Basically, if we still want manufactured goods stuff, we're going to have to make a lot more of it here locally, and that means a lot more factories. If this number goes up, you know, we're moving in the right direction.
The Future of US Monetary Policy
Existing economic models are failing because the balance of inputs has changed. The speaker asserts that monetary authorities must evolve their mandates to address this new reality.
China's Stance on Iran
China views Iran as a strategic vulnerability rather than an important partner because it lacks critical oil export volume and leverage. Iran is falling off the map strategically and economically, becoming a liability for both China and the United States.
Key Economic Indicators to Watch: Retail Sales
Retail sales provide a relatively accurate picture of consumer spending but must be viewed as one factor among many. The statistic is an estimate, somewhat backward looking, and doesn't give the whole picture, but it's better than nothing.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Wars Without People
The combination of less manpower to establish that buffer, combined with an insufficient defensive envelope to provide passive cover for that buffer, means that more and more territory across the planet is simply going to be unlivable because of conflict. Future warfare will focus on denying the opponent's ability to function rather than protecting one's own.
A Ukraine-US Deal?
Ukraine retains all Soviet-era scientists while Russia acquired most weapons. Half of Ukraine's industrial plant sits empty due to lack of resources.
What Happens After Trump and Putin Split?
Donald Trump must either dedicate his entire presidency to the Ukraine issue or rebuild a competent government staff to avoid disastrous national security decisions. The current administration's lack of competent staff and reliance on uninformed advisors prevents effective policy implementation.
+1
Copper Imports Slapped with 50% Tariff
A 50% tariff on copper imports retards the entire production process and ends the economic boom. These policies harm U.S. interests as if a Russian agent were whispering in Trump's ear.
Trump and Putin Split, Ukraine Gets Aid Again
Trump's potential overreaction could trigger erratic military and economic policies that cause long-term problems. These actions will fall under the category of things that you wish for don't always go the way that you were hoping.
The Highs and Lows of Burgum's Energy Strategy
The shift to fossil fuels is driven by economic necessity and a specific geopolitical strategy against Russia. The current foreign policy team lacks competence, making the pragmatic energy strategy even more critical despite its long timeline.
Elon Musk's America Party
The current political landscape is unstable because the Republican Party relies on a single leader while major factions are shifting. The outcome depends on who makes the biggest mistake in this chaotic environment.
Tariff Day Is Here, Again!
The current tariff strategy creates an impossible environment where even the most compliant nations cannot secure deals due to a lack of negotiation staff and shifting deadlines. Business investment has collapsed to levels not seen since COVID because no one knows what the rules are or how to prepare for the next move.
Tariffs Hit Brazil
Threatening Brazil's rule of law is the dumbest thing to do for US interests. The current situation represents a strategic failure despite previous progress.
Stop Worrying About the BRICS Alliance
The BRICS alliance is a non-entity because its members are too divided to agree on anything. The administration's entire foreign policy depends on the ability to impose tariffs, which Congress can block.
Here's Why Inflation Isn't a Solution
Inflation reduces debt value but also erodes the worth of all other assets and income. The speaker votes against using inflation as a solution because it damages all asset classes.
"Made in China" Becomes "Made in Vietnam"
Vietnam offers a viable manufacturing alternative to China but faces administrative hurdles if targeted with specific tariffs. The speaker gives Vietnam an A for effort and a D for approach.
Why Do the Democrats Keep Losing Ground?
The Democratic Party probably has no future because its core pillars are fracturing. Democrats cannot win any big election unless there's something else very big in play.
Xi Purges Chinese Military of Corruption…Kinda
General Miao was arrested and fired from the Central Military Commission for corruption. Xi Jinping's purge targets political control rather than just corruption since 2012.
Rebuilding the American Industrial Base, Rare Earths Edition
The United States must rebuild its industrial base to avoid collapse from Chinese leverage. The speaker concludes that rebuilding is essential because the current administration lacks the grip on core issues needed for the next world.
The Art of Trump’s Trade Deal
Robert Lighthizer declined the trade role because the administration lacks the staff to negotiate hundreds of deals. The current stalled negotiations are due to the lack of staff in Washington rather than incompetence.
Finally, a Productive NATO Summit
Europeans must manage Donald Trump by flattering him to secure necessary defense commitments. If Europeans figure out how to play the game, the Russians are in a pickle.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Ditching Artillery
Artillery is incredibly vulnerable because drones cost less than shells and acoustic detection allows counter-battery fire before impact. The rules of war are changing every week, making current weapon systems obsolete for future conflicts.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: USS Nimitz
The U.S. cannot replace its alliance network with new technology because losing allies makes power projection prohibitively expensive. The United States will be forced to use older carriers as expensive mobile bases instead of retiring them.
The US Strikes Iran's Nuclear Facilities
There is never going to be a deal with Iran because they have never signed and implemented a security deal with anyone. The situation remains in a holding pattern where weapons are thrown but no fundamental change in the relationship occurs.
June 2025 · 23
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Naval Advances
Conventional naval warfare within 500 miles of the coast is obsolete, forcing a global rethink of maritime strategy. The era of easy coastal dominance is over, requiring nations to develop entirely new concepts for naval power.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Europe's Future
Europe must abandon reliance on American military hardware and adopt drone technology to survive Russian aggression. Necessity is forcing Europe to operate under new constraints that require adopting unproven technologies like drones.
Israel’s Uncertain Endgame in Iran
If there is going to be a meaningful regime change, if Iran is going to enter a fundamentally different governing age, it's going to have to be a revolution. It is unclear from my point of view if Donald Trump is falling for it yet.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Weapons Sales
American weapon sales are driven by U.S. geographic constraints, but recent political shifts have broken the security guarantees Europeans relied on. Europeans are now debating whether and how to stop buying American weapon systems.
What is Israel's Victory Condition in Iran?
Israel cannot destroy Iran's nuclear program but aims to delay it while potentially destabilizing its economy. Attacking oil refineries seems feasible to set back Iran more generally.
Oil Markets Aren't Worried About Iran
The United States shale revolution means the Middle East doesn't matter nearly as much as it used to. Even if Iran attempts a land invasion of Saudi Arabia, the operation would be hugely costly or lead to the end of the Iranian government.
Watch This Number for Recession Indicators
A policy recession caused by crazy decision-making in Washington will be revealed in July when consumption overwhelms inventories. The speaker warns that rising first-time unemployment claims within the revised lower range signal an imminent recession.
Israel Launches Attack on Iranian Nuclear Sites
Iran lacks the conventional military strength and robust defenses to effectively respond to Israel's nuclear-focused campaign. Iran faces a critical decision where using its remaining missiles may be its last shot with no guarantee of success.
Trump Calls in the Marines for California's Protests
Trump is deliberately instigating an issue in California to weaken its powerful economy. Putting the military in a position for law enforcement creates an awkward and potentially ugly situation for everybody.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Series Intro
The human race is about to experience a higher form of war. Countries must decide what they want and how big a technological jump they are willing to take.
Musk Pulls the Carpet Out from Under DOGE
There is no version of deficit control in the United States that is not centered on defense, social security, Medicare, and Medicaid. If you're not willing to take a very, very deep gouge into those four programs, not one of them, all of them, we are not going to get anywhere near a balanced budget.
Trouble in MAGA Paradise
The conflict between Musk and Trump exposes the fragility of US technological dominance and legislative stability. Trump has burned his political capital and alienated allies, leaving his executive actions vulnerable to immediate reversal.
Should the US Military Invade Mexico?
There is no sensible military option for the United States to invade Mexico because all strategies either fail or cause catastrophic economic damage. The only viable solution is to stop using fentanyl and cocaine rather than pursuing military action.
The Demographic Crisis in Russia
Russia faces a severe demographic crisis driven by historical industrialization, drug addiction, economic despair, and massive war losses. The true extent of the population collapse will soon become visible as the younger generation runs out of men to fight.
Finally, Some Clarity on US-China Relations
Two old guys driven by ideology who don't think the rules apply to them, who have blinded themselves to information, are going to have a talk about what's going to happen for the rest of us. The upcoming conversation between these two leaders will be consequential one way or another.
What's Up with the Middle East: Saudi Oil Slips
Saudi Arabia must resort to terror attacks to drive rivals offline because the US no longer needs its oil. Saudi Arabia will face significant policy change as it becomes apparent to them that the American relationship is over.
Coping Mechanisms 101: The "TACO" Trade
The United States faces an institutional crisis because the administration makes trade policy based on whim rather than data or legal authority. Expect nothing but more confusion as everyone tries to figure out what is happening while the floor keeps shifting under all of us.
Ukraine Strikes Russian Strategic Bombers
Ukraine proved that allies can deliver a blow to an enemy targeting the American homeland. The future depends on whether the administration realizes this achievement and makes policy around it.
What's Up with the Middle East: Syrian Dysfunction
Syria will not form a stable government because external powers prefer chaos over consolidation. Anarchy is the best outcome Syria will achieve.
What's Up with the Middle East: Turkish Dominance
The demographic situation for both the Russians, Ukrainians, and the Europeans is terminal. All we know for sure is Edarwan is committed to being the big man when everything breaks.
What's Up In the Middle East: Israel's Future
The Israelis are going to have to figure out how to function in a world where the United States just really doesn't care about the Middle East now. They're too small they're too dependent on energy imports they're too independent on food imports they're too dependent on technology imports but there are partners out there that might work.
The Future of Tourism: Part 2
Europe faces demographic collapse and Russian expansion while the Middle East relies on fragile oil systems that require new security guarantors. Turkey will become one of the fastest-growing, most successful, most powerful countries in the world for decades to come.
The Future of Tourism: Part 1
Travelers must prioritize long-term stability over beauty because demographics and deglobalization are smashing the old model. Many countries people like to think they want to visit aren't going to be options for much longer.
May 2025 · 26
America’s Processing Crisis: Racing China's Decline
The United States faces a critical reindustrialization crisis because it lacks domestic processing capacity while relying on subsidized Chinese infrastructure that is now collapsing. The US must rebuild local processing capacity immediately or face a future with no materials to work from.
The Future of Piracy (ARRRGH!)
Nations dependent on sea transport will fight pirates, while self-sufficient nations may support them. India will likely become a hybrid power supporting piracy to its east while opposing it to its west.
Did Trump Just Wreck US-India Relations?
The Trump administration wrecked US-India relations by brokering a ceasefire without consulting India, violating its principle of bilateral negotiations. Thirty years of progress toward a strategic partnership with India has been unwound by this unilateral action.
Iran Snuggles Up with the Houthis in Yemen
The US cannot subdue Yemen militarily and must negotiate with Iran instead. The US must accept a truce and engage in real talks with Iran.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: How Do You Lose 100 Million People?
China lost track of its population due to statistical fraud at the local level, leading to a massive undercount of births and an overestimation of the current workforce. The idea that a government can function if it blinds itself is a bit of a stretch.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Xi's Power Chokehold
The Chinese system is over-centralized and disconnected from reality, leading to catastrophic collapse. Assets in China must be removed immediately as the timeline for stability shortens.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: China's First Domino
The Chinese system is cracking apart under strain, forcing the US into an impossible industrialization pulse that will lead to stagnation. The disconnect caused by ideology makes it impossible to see the edge we are pushing closer to.
Aging Populations and Which Countries Look the Worst
Italy, China, and Korea face civilization crashing events due to rapid aging without adaptation. Korea might find a path out if any country can figure out how to adapt.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: The “Deal" With the Chinese
Everything about the Chinese system is terminal. This does give them a little bit more bandwidth and allows them to stall the end perhaps a little bit more.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Chinese Edition Intro
There was no way that the People's Republic of China was going to survive as a unified government. And that is before Donald Trump arrived.
VIDEO REPOST - Moody's Downgraded the Debt, So Let's Recap
The United States is the largest economy in the world. We are the safe haven for currency.
The Question of Leadership…And Management
Three world leaders are actively destroying their states' ability to function. Xi will destroy China, while Trump's actions may teach the US what to do and not do with its government.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: American Brands
Trump tariffs will cause American companies to vanish or go bankrupt, leading to long-term product shortages and high inflation. We can recover from this faster if we have Mexico and Canada and our other trading partners involved.
The Russians Continue Stirring the Romanian Pot
Russia must conquer Romania to secure its southern flank and complete its domination of the Eurasian steppe. The fall of Romania would fundamentally change the geopolitical landscape by isolating Turkey and Greece from the rest of the alliance.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Agriculture
Over the course of the next three or four years we're looking at somewhere between a quarter and a third of U.S. producers just going out of business because of the trade war. So as food becomes more approachable in the near term, you know it's going to become much more difficult in the long term.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: The Fed
Gutting the independence of the Federal Reserve will only make a coming recession deeper and darker. Expect Trump to slam his head into the Fed and then go to Congress to change the charter.
The Night the Lights Went Out in Geor- er, Spain
High reliance on renewable energy without sufficient fossil fuel backup creates unstable grids vulnerable to cascading failures. None of these solutions are great, but that is where the world currently stands regarding grid stability.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Recession Time
Basically, we're looking at a secular slowdown in economic growth in almost every sector at the same time. And when that happened, globalization was going to crash, but the tariffs are making it crash now harder and in a way that is causing a lot of heartbreak for Americans.
A Fresh Chance for Breakdown in South Asia - TEASER
A significant terror attack occurred on Indian territory recently. This event is comparable to India's 9-11 due to its political impact.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Housing Problems
The housing sector is the American industry most damaged by mid- and long-term trends combining labor shortages, tariffs, financing cuts, and insurance collapse. The housing sector is looking to be the sector that is potentially most damaged by the mid- and long-term trends that are coming together.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Steel and Aluminum
We've raised the cost of imported steel and aluminum, but we have not first built out the capacity of the U.S. economy to smelt or foundry more of the stuff itself. Everything is now moving more slowly at a higher expense at a time we just need more.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Finance
The combination of retiring baby boomers and unpredictable US policies is causing a massive reduction in global capital supply, which drastically increases borrowing costs. These factors combine to slow economic growth across the entire American economic space.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Port Fees
The port fees and tariffs will increase costs because the administration failed to build necessary ships first. We must pay more for everything because there is no alternative way to reindustrialize yet.
Will New Zealand Dive or Thrive?
New Zealand must adapt its agriculture and align with either the United States or Southeast Asia to thrive. The Kiwis have shown time and time again that change is something that they can handle.
A Concerning Update to the Russian Reach Series
The Trump administration has created a security crisis by replacing independent oversight with officials who spread Russian propaganda. The speaker leaves everyone to their own recognizance as to what is going to happen next.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: The Green Transition Is Over
Three factors have destroyed the economics of the green transition in the United States. The green transition will take a beat for at least two years due to manufacturing gaps.
April 2025 · 24
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Government Debt
The bigger problem is whether or not the United States is risking losing its position as the global currency, the global store of value, and the currency of first and last resort. Don't feel great about it.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: What Is Hegseth Doing?
Hegseth is destroying America's capacity to fight current and future wars through incompetence and felony-level negligence. The US faces a long, painful, drawn-out crash of national security management under this incompetent leadership.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Corruption
The current system forces American importers and businesses to bribe the people who do spot checks. Arbitrary policies imposed by tweet will cause an erosion of rule of law throughout the corporate world.
Why There's No Fentanyl in Easter Eggs This Year
Industrial-scale fentanyl production by La Familia Michoacán at a distant Mexican port makes it immune to standard enforcement. Targeting the specific port city offers a better chance than general door-to-door searches.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Bye-Bye De Minimis
The de minimis loophole ends on May 2nd with new tariffs that will kill most small-package shipping and significantly disrupt the current fentanyl supply chain. This policy is a win because it finally addresses a real problem, even though it comes at an economic cost.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Don't Expect Many Trade Deals
The United States isn't ready to have these talks because it is organizationally unprepared and operates with erratic policies. Real trade talks cannot begin until the erratic policy environment settles down.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Wait, The Recession Is Already Here?
The United States is already in a completely unnecessary recession caused by erratic policies and tariffs. The recession will start formally in the second quarter, certainly in the third, and last a lot longer than it would have ever needed to.
Should the US Stay in the Middle East?
The primary reason for US involvement was to maintain an alliance against the Soviet Union, not just oil. Every time we do truly nationalist and really do ostrich down, something happens in the Eastern Hemisphere that draws us back in in a very ugly way that costs us hundreds of thousands of lives.
I Hope You Didn't Want to Buy a Home
Housing is just expensive and only going to get more so because we cannot build it fast enough. If you are trying to get going, this is awful.
Is Trump Playing 4D Chess?
The proposed strategy to box in China through an allied coalition is unlikely to succeed due to administrative dysfunction and flawed tariff tactics. The world faces a recessionary, stagflationary environment until this situation is resolved one way or another.
Of Tariffs, Manufacturing and PSAs
Meaningful American manufacturing will not occur within two years due to complex supply chains and policy uncertainty. Consumers must buy electronics with existing U.S. inventory immediately to avoid massive tariff markups on new imports.
Stopping Trump's Tariffs with A New Trade Act
The only body that matters when it comes to hemming in a president who's gone off the rails is the Senate. The champion of rule of law in the Senate has been roused and things are starting to move.
Tariff Spotlight: Vietnam
The Trump administration's tariff on Vietnam is based on manufactured data and incompetent advisors, destroying a vital supply chain partnership. The tariffs will cause extreme pain and undo years of successful efforts to diversify supply chains away from China.
Spain's Economy Is Booming
Spain's current economic boom is a temporary one-shot deal dependent on immigration that will eventually require a new path. Luckily, there is a potential answer on deck.
India Complicates the US Fentanyl Crisis
The only real way to get fentanyl under control would be to address the consumption side of the equation. Addressing consumption is the solution because current supply-side strategies are flawed and ineffective.
Turkey Takes a Break from Democracy
Turkey is no longer a democracy. Erwan has destroyed that system over the last 25 years.
The Tariffs Stalk at Midnight + LIVE Q&A Starts Soon!
The new tariff policies will cause a significantly worse recession than previously predicted. We are just getting started on this dislocation.
The Death of US-China Trade
The largest bilateral economic relationship in human history is for all intents and purposes over now. This is going to go until something breaks, specifically the current economic expansion in the United States and the Chinese system as a whole.
Trump’s Tariffs: Reciprocal Edition + Live Q&A
The new tariffs will wreck the relationship with Southeast Asia and cause a year-long recession. We are easily looking at a recession that is going to last a year.
Why I'm Okay with Some of the Secondary Tariffs
Globalization is gone. It's not coming back.
You Mess with the Don, You Get the Tariffs
Secondary tariffs on crude oil buyers could force China out of the electronics supply chain. We are definitely moving into a deglobalized world and need different tools than we have used for eighty years.
Signalgate. It's Worse Than You Think.
The Trump administration's national security team is moronic because it lacks competence due to firing knowledgeable staff and surrounding itself with loyalists. The administration is making policy on behalf of all of us with people who literally have no idea how to keep information secure.
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Auto Tariffs and the Art of Routine Vehicle Maintenance
The new tariff policy will drive up vehicle costs significantly. The cumulative effect of these tariffs could easily see automobile costs going up by $10,000.
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Half A Million Immigrants Get the Boot
Rescinding legal status for half a million immigrants worsens the labor shortage and encourages future illegal migration. The next wave will definitely cross illegally and form an underclass in American society.