All episodes
753 episodes, newest first.
November 2026 · 15
5:22
The Problem with the U.S. Power Grid
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. cannot unify its power grids soon because geography and local authority barriers prevent efficient long-distance transmission. Real progress requires adjacent jurisdictions to share resources before attempting national grid unification.
5:18
China's Power Vacuum Worsens
Peter Zeihan
Xi Jinping has created a one-man dictatorship that is purging the bureaucracy to the point where China cannot function accurately. It is really hard to get an accurate view of what is going on inside the country now because everyone who used to collect that information has now been purged.
3:49
Polish Politics Get Persnickety
Peter Zeihan
Poland faces a constitutional crisis where both major factions make legally valid claims that prevent resolution without new elections. Expect this stalemate to be the new norm in Polish politics for several weeks or months.
26:22
Russia Just Declared War on...Pizza?
Paul J. Warburg
This isn't a war about weapons. It's not a war about territory.
25:17
Russia’s Population Collapse is Worse Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
Vladimir Putin has a use-them-while-you've-got-them mentality. Once the war in Ukraine is over, it's going to seem like small cookies compared to what happens to Russia over the ensuing decades and generations.
6:05
A New Explosive Threat in the Persian Gulf
Peter Zeihan
Conventional commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf is probably going to collapse because there is no good defense against speedboat attacks. The cost for the civilian shipping sector to try to cope with this is immense and will absolutely change the cost structure of how shipping happens.
25:25
Russian Soldiers are Suddenly Being Wiped Out Like Never Before
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is experiencing a catastrophic decline where casualty rates exceed recruitment and birth rates, leading to societal collapse. The war has eliminated any hope for Russia's demographic recovery and is running its society into the ground.
6:13
Bolsonaro Flees Brazil Following Election Loss
Peter Zeihan
The blood feud between Lula and the Bolsonaros is causing a top-to-bottom fissure in Brazil's state capacity. No matter how the political conflict resolves, it will matter to a great number of people including those in the United States.
+4
22:07
Russia Just Suffered the Ultimate Humiliation
Paul J. Warburg
One of the telltale signs that somebody is broke and doing everything they can to avoid bankruptcy is when they start to sell off everything they own just to meet their monthly obligations. We'll keep watching how these trends go and where they ultimately lead.
4:58
Attacks on Russian Data Centers: It's Not About Bots
Peter Zeihan
If you pull the plug on that, send them back 40 years or more, you get some catastrophic outcomes. That's what's going on in Russia right now with the Ukraine war.
6:13
What's Behind the French Protests
Peter Zeihan
The violence in France is caused by budget deficits and anarchist movements, not illegal migrants. Everyone out there is trying to beat their own ideological drum and point at France and say, C, C, C, but for most of them, the facts don't match the ideology.
4:11
France and the UK Choose the Nuclear Option
Peter Zeihan
The UK and France are pursuing nuclear weapons to prevent Germany from feeling secure enough to build its own deterrent. Allowing Germany to develop nukes would recreate the dangerous pressure cooker of 19th-century Europe.
5:38
The Paris Accords Can't Stop Climate Change
Peter Zeihan
The Paris Accords cannot stop climate change because they lack necessary funding and rely on a globalized system that is now breaking down. By the end of the century, we need to be starting to consider things like five and maybe even six.
4:56
El Salvador Invades Haiti with Help from the Trump Administration?
Peter Zeihan
El Salvador in general, does not have any military capability. Get ready for the worst.
18:12
Russia’s Oil Nightmare Just Returned IN FORCE
Paul J. Warburg
Russia faces a catastrophic financial scenario because its own data predicts oil prices will drop to $53 per barrel while it loses customers and production capacity. The point is, Russia already had their luck, and now their luck has run out.
October 2026 · 37
21:13
Ukraine Had an INCREDIBLE Night
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine has demonstrated it can independently stop Russian attacks and defy US political pressure regarding energy prices. Ukraine is willing to defy the United States and prove that Trump lacks control over energy prices just before the midterms.
4:02
What Happens When China Runs Out of Water?
Peter Zeihan
The People's Republic of China is going to vanish in the next couple of decades. The People's Republic of China is going to vanish in the next couple of decades.
4:27
India Has Three Major Problems (At The Moment)
Peter Zeihan
The normal things that produce stability in India at the moment are offline and inverted to cause instability. You should expect this to get significantly worse before it gets better.
6:11
Trump Might Be Onto Something with Data Center Energy
Peter Zeihan
The proposal indicates significant changes are coming if pushed forward. The proposal is a potential solution to current problems but faces serious political hurdles.
26:15
Ukraine’s Massive Advantage Over Russia is Now Impossible to Ignore
Paul J. Warburg
Modern democracies win wars and long-term competition because market incentives drive continuous innovation, while dictatorships stagnate due to fear of success. The future belongs to societies where youth are incentivized to build technology that solves problems rather than just seeking military salaries.
3:00
The Turn: Demographics Meet Deglobalization
Peter Zeihan
The United States will surrender its position in the Eastern Hemisphere before the end of the Trump administration. Everyone will soon notice major disruptions in agriculture due to these changing global mechanics.
26:41
Ukraine’s D-Day May Be Coming Soon
Paul J. Warburg
Sometimes, when things seem hopeless, all you have to do is hold on and actually have courage long enough for the enemy to break themselves against their own impatience. Personally, I see that as the most likely way this war ends through political change within Russia.
25:39
China Just Lost Its Best Chokehold On The Global Economy
Paul J. Warburg
China's long-term strategic hold on the global economy through rare earth metals is ending because its heavy rare earth supply is finite while other nations have untapped reserves. The geopolitical landscape is reversing as China faces a genuine supply shortage of heavy rare earths while the world develops alternatives.
6:55
How Will the Elections Impact Serbia and Brazil?
Peter Zeihan
Recent elections in Serbia and Brazil represent minor steps along a long road rather than landmark changes. No radical changes are expected in either country because they remain trapped by their specific geographic and historical constraints.
13:20
Data Centers: A Necessary Evil...Kinda
Peter Zeihan
Data centers are necessary for modern economic function because removing them would force a return to manual paper-based systems resulting in significantly lower standards of living. While data centers have negative effects like high energy use, eliminating them would condemn millions to low-value jobs and drastically reduce personal incomes.
20:15
Russia Just Had Its Worst Day of the Entire War
Paul J. Warburg
Pro-Russian pressure from the United States actually hurts the Russians far more than the Ukrainians, and it really does seem that Russia can't possibly do anything to win the war. It is encouraging to know that Ukraine's strategy is definitely, definitely working.
3:46
Oil Pricing Is Going Crazy
Peter Zeihan
A severe break in the security environment allows the market to function differently. By the time we get to the end of the year, unless something is resolved politically, we're going to be looking at outright breaks in supply lines.
22:01
Russia’s Tech Companies Just Entered Full Panic Mode
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is facing a permanent, systemic crisis in its cloud infrastructure that will worsen over time due to destroyed capacity and lack of global redundancy. The true scale of the damage remains hidden because both cloud companies and the Russian government suppress negative information to protect their interests.
6:18
The Great Oil Split Has Begun
Peter Zeihan
The United States has a functional ceiling on its energy prices of around $70 while Europe and Asia pay double or triple that amount due to transport disruptions. This fragmented market state is going to be the norm for the bulk of the next 20 years.
5:48
Ground Drones Hit the Frontlines in Ukraine
Peter Zeihan
The emergence of ground drones makes it very difficult for any sort of projection-based military to push force somewhere else. We're not going to figure that out in six months.
19:38
China Just Got Some Terrible News
Paul J. Warburg
China is afraid of losing Western markets and will not use coercion tactics that threaten its economic survival. Today, China, which traditionally has been more adversarial, finally got a really good check put in place on them.
5:53
Should the U.S. Military Invade Yemen?
Peter Zeihan
The United States faces an ugly choice between a difficult military occupation or accepting Iranian control over Gulf energy. A military solution is too involved to recommend, leaving the only viable option as a political deal with Iran.
5:44
Does China Have a Succession Plan
Peter Zeihan
If Xi dies tomorrow, there simply isn't an institution, much less a personality, who could potentially step forward and take over his role. The best case scenario is that Xi becomes the new Yeltsin or Brezhnev and remains just alive enough that he can be propped up in a chair and wave to the crowd every once in a while while everything slowly disintegrates around him.
6:27
The French Protests Were Inevitable
Peter Zeihan
France must cut social programs because its centralized system extracted resources from colonies to fund a welfare state that can no longer be sustained. The protests are inevitable because students and workers face a system custom designed to not cut spending that now has no money.
33:13
Why I’m Not Worried About Ukraine Losing U.S. Support
Paul J. Warburg
There are absolutely zero concerns that withdrawing U.S. support will create a catastrophe for Ukraine because the U.S. is not providing decisive aid. Public opinion creates a ceiling on how bad things can get, limiting U.S. actions against Ukraine.
3:41
China Gets a New Base in Southeast Asia
Peter Zeihan
China is building a self-sufficient base in Laos to project power across Southeast Asia despite the high risk of conflict with Thailand. Thailand represents a significant strategic hurdle because it is the most capable country in the region with a history of resisting foreign control.
18:56
Ukraine Just Sent Russia Back to the Stone Age
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is definitely now going to get left behind even further than they already were. In either case, Russia's data center problem is massive, and it's quickly growing tendrils into other areas that Russia likely never anticipated.
5:06
The End of Black Sea Shipping
Peter Zeihan
The escalation of naval drone warfare will shut down the Black Sea within days, crippling exports for both Russia and Ukraine. This shutdown represents a major economic hit to both sides as all cargo must now go out by rail through neighboring countries.
2:41
What Happens When India's Water Runs Out?
Peter Zeihan
We are looking at a water-driven calorie deficit in India within a decade or two that is just simply difficult to wrap your mind around. And it is nothing compared to the third one.
5:51
Defending the Homefront from Cheap Drones
Peter Zeihan
The entire industrial age needs to find a new way to operate because we are not ready for this. It is time to start noodling fast, hopefully, about what a post-drone economy can even be.
3:02
How Diesel Could Shape the Ukraine War
Peter Zeihan
If we actually go a six-month period or more where the Russians don't have enough fuel to keep their system operational from a military point of view, then we really have entered a new phase in this conflict. With the United States possibly about to remove the last remaining large supply of the global standards, that leaves the Russians completely high and dry.
20:30
Russia’s Winter From Hell is About to Begin
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's winter will be a nightmare due to logistical failures and fuel shortages, while Ukraine's morale remains resilient. Even if conditions worsen physically, Ukrainians may actually become happier due to shared adversity and community.
5:39
What’s Next for Iraq?
Peter Zeihan
The withdrawal of US troops leaves Iraq unstable, risking Iranian dominance in the south or a return to Sunni rule. Peace in the region is unlikely as history suggests Sunnis will rise again if the system becomes unmoored.
5:50
Will Putin Join the Miami G20 Summit?
Peter Zeihan
Putin may use the G20 summit to announce an invasion of a NATO country, forcing Trump to choose between Russia and the alliance. The outcome will determine if the US alliance completely shatters or remains intact.
+1
Peter Zeihan's First Fiction Novel || Pre-Order Acceptable Range Now
Peter Zeihan
The new book is coming out this January. The book is available for pre-order now.
31:48
Russia's Banks are Now Preparing for Sudden Collapse
Paul J. Warburg
Russia has entered an economic trap eerily similar to Nazi Germany towards the end of World War II. Russia is destroying its economic future by continuously degrading its system into a slow-moving car crash with no growth.
4:11
Ukraine Finally Pushes the Frontline Back
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine has reshaped battlefield tactics by using memory drones to starve Russian front lines of supplies. The tide of battle has changed significantly for Ukraine as tanks return to fight.
2:38
SpaceX Deploys 26 Satellites with New Starship
Peter Zeihan
The test represents a moderate step forward but requires significant additional work before success. The event is a positive direction, though substantial challenges remain for future operations.
3:35
What Happens When Fossil Water Runs Out?
Peter Zeihan
Three regions will cease to be agriculturally producing zones within the next 20 to 30 years. The problem is honestly drilling for water in these zones.
23:33
Ukraine’s New FP-7 Ballistic Missile is Quickly Becoming Russia’s Worst Nightmare
Paul J. Warburg
The introduction of FP-7 and future FP-9 ballistic missiles forces Russia to reallocate air defenses and burn through interceptors on cheap drones, creating a strategic advantage for Ukraine over the next one to two years. The combination of new missile capabilities and depleted Russian defenses will fundamentally alter the battlefield dynamics over the next one to two years.
5:44
Building Out the Power Grid: Large Power Transformers
Peter Zeihan
The United States cannot expand its grid by 50% to support reindustrialization because it lacks domestic large transformer production and faces severe permitting delays. Without significant changes in federal policy and domestic manufacturing, the US will fail to maintain its grid or reindustrialize.
7:56
How To Ban Diesel Exports
Peter Zeihan
Export bans without infrastructure changes create oversaturation that reduces domestic energy security. The conversation is misplaced until distribution systems are fixed alongside any bans.
September 2026 · 32
33:31
Is Russia Really Preparing to Attack NATO?
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is unlikely to attack NATO because doing so would open a massive new front while they are already failing in Ukraine. While we should prepare in case we're wrong, we should not fear a Russian attack because it's unlikely to happen.
5:02
U.S. Sanctions on Iran Take a New Approach
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. aims to make life difficult for the Iranian population so they will rebel and overthrow the government. Two arrogant and increasingly isolated men are pretending that they know what's going on.
3:31
The AI Race: U.S. vs. China
Peter Zeihan
China cannot compete in AI because export restrictions prevent them from building the necessary high-end hardware. The structural issues regarding data and ethics are irrelevant because the race comes down to hardware access.
6:07
The Diesel Shortage Hits America
Peter Zeihan
Diesel shortages will reverberate through the entire American economy for months. The US faces guaranteed transport problems affecting everything moved throughout the country for at least the next 18 months.
Ukraine’s New Strategy is an Absolute Nightmare for Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Ground robotics provide the only solutions currently conceivable to problems created by drone warfare. Ukraine's ground robotics are just now reaching a point of becoming exceptionally and exponentially more useful.
37:02
Why Putin Can NEVER Use a Nuclear Weapon
Paul J. Warburg
Russia cannot credibly threaten nuclear war because its arsenal is likely non-functional and launching would destroy the regime. The ultimate cost of operating one of the most corrupt countries on Earth is that everything crashes in on itself.
5:48
The Venezuela Oil Deal Is Just the Start
Peter Zeihan
The oil deals represent only the beginning of a potential renaissance, not an immediate turnaround. The current situation is a step in the right direction, but we must not get too crazy or ahead of ourselves.
3:58
My Two Cents on the AI Debate
Peter Zeihan
The current debate over AI safety is actually a positive sign of open conversation. The current debate does not need to bear fruit until the 2040s when supply chains are rebuilt.
+1
5:47
The Geography of… Bear Attacks
Peter Zeihan
Japan has seen hundreds of bear attacks this year due to demographic shifts and aggressive species. American black bears are scavengers scared by noise, while Asian bears view humans as intruders.
18:54
Ukraine Just Absolutely HAMMERED Moscow…Again!
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is winning the war of attrition by using cheap, scalable drone swarms to overwhelm Russia's defenses, while Russia is forced into an unsustainable cycle of expensive missiles and depleted air defense systems. As Russia runs out of air defenses and concentrates them in Moscow, Ukraine will soon be able to strike targets across the Russian Arctic, Siberia, and Far East.
5:08
China's Hold on Congolese Cobalt
Peter Zeihan
We must learn to get by with less because business as usual for tech advancement will simply not fly. More likely, the business as usual of tech advancement that we become used to is simply not going to fly.
3:40
Prize Courts Revived for Iran Seizures
Peter Zeihan
The prize court system is being set up in the southern district which includes Houston. This could mean that the rest of this year is going to get really interesting.
5:42
How to Work Together Like Early Rome
Peter Zeihan
Southeast Asia and Southern Latin America resemble pre-Rome due to economic integration and lack of historical conflict. These regions must form new alliances to survive the breakdown of current global systems.
29:51
China's Population Collapse is Worse Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
The Chinese government's strict population controls created a self-reinforcing collapse where people now refuse to have children. China is likely hiding the true scale of its population decline and may eventually resort to war or internal collapse.
4:44
Can AI-Driven Robots Save Japan?
Peter Zeihan
Japan must develop autonomous robots because it cannot import labor due to racism and faces a massive workforce shortage. The project looks pretty promising as it merges long-term Japanese automation efforts with new frontier technology.
3:51
What Is Zelensky's Political Future?
Peter Zeihan
Zelensky's historical legacy depends on whether Russia wins, a stalemate occurs, or Ukraine wins. History is still playing out on this specific question, and we are not going to get an answer this year, or next year, or the year after that.
18:11
Ukraine Just Sparked a Panic in the Russian Arctic
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's strategy of using its massive size as a defensive advantage is now obsolete. Ukraine is unlocking the entire country, and that hunting season won't end until Russia ends its war.
4:57
The Democrats Are Screwed, Too
Peter Zeihan
The Democrats' broad coalition strategy includes opposing factions that prevent policy discussion and have fractured their traditional vote banks. The Democrats face a hung Congress where the president cannot be impeached, resulting in another two years of political dysfunction.
+1
11:31
What Does Life After Donald Trump Look Like?
Peter Zeihan
Trump has destroyed the Republican Party's institutional capacity and mirrors the fragile personalist regimes of China and Russia. When these leaders leave, the result will be quick and complete collapse because governance is them.
+5
7:50
Does the Trump Administration Know What's Going On?
Peter Zeihan
The Trump administration lacks awareness because loyalists replaced experts who could provide accurate information. The next president will inherit a lobotomized government structure requiring years to fix.
+3
18:28
Vladimir Putin Just Got the Worst Possible News
Paul J. Warburg
If your population is happy despite whatever trial they're going through, everything else around that shrinks in importance. Because they are winning.
4:20
Back to the Glory Days of the Spice Trade
Peter Zeihan
The technologies of globalization are failing, and the system that has allowed the whole world to go wherever it wants and access any particle are breaking down. We're probably going to be going into a world where the single biggest impact is going to be a collapse in what we considered manufactured goods trade.
32:42
Something Very Strange is Happening to China’s Military
Paul J. Warburg
China is a paper tiger using propaganda to appear stronger than it actually is. Investing in cheap drones can overwhelm China's expensive, unproven military image.
3:04
Project Vault Doesn't Solve the Mineral Problem
Peter Zeihan
Project Vault fails to solve the mineral problem because most critical materials processing is done in China. Without diplomacy to secure resources from Canada, Australia, and Brazil, the initiative remains a rounding error.
4:28
Why a Russian-Chinese Pipeline Won't Happen
Peter Zeihan
The Chinese see the Russians as backwards barbarians and the Russians see the Chinese as peasants. Whenever Putin and Xi get together, the conversation always is, hey, let's do a pipeline.
3:59
Ukraine Is Shooting Fish in a Barrel
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine will stop Russia's significant oil export presence by destroying the non-reporting shadow fleet. The ports will eventually run out of storage facilities, cutting down production inland just as effectively as stopping the shadow fleet.
5:14
The End of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Peter Zeihan
Repeated usage is functionally ending the salt dome's useful lifespan. So either we have a new multi-billion dollar project authorized by Congress to establish an entirely new reserve, or the United States has to do something else in order to regulate markets.
5:27
Global Shipping Comes Under Attack
Peter Zeihan
No country can defend all eight major transit choke points simultaneously. No nation or coalition can keep global sea lanes safe anymore.
5:05
China’s Real Estate System Is Failing
Peter Zeihan
The Chinese government is now trying to get this money somewhere else. I've always found it very amusing of the people who want to get their money into China to make money when the people who are in China are desperate for any way to get the money out.
7:30
Russia Is Struggling to Defend Its Own Capital
Peter Zeihan
The combination of fuel shortages and the risks of peripheral mobilization makes the current situation looking pretty bad for the Kremlin. The convergence of battlefield losses and social pressure from forced mobilization creates a dangerous situation for the Kremlin.
21:55
China’s Biggest Problem Just Got SO MUCH Worse
Paul J. Warburg
China's water shortage puts them at a structural disadvantage against AI competitors and increases their incentive to provoke water conflicts. China's only real solution is geopolitical, potentially involving damming rivers or bringing water from Russia.
5:29
Trade War Revival: Trump, Canada, and Tariffs
Peter Zeihan
The US cannot reindustrialize under current conditions because uncertainty prevents investment. We are farther away from clarity now than we were in January of 2025.
August 2026 · 32
17:00
Satellite Images Just Revealed Something Very Strange in North Korea
Paul J. Warburg
North Korea is essentially the Hunger Games in the real world. This is how empires and kingdoms have always worked.
3:04
Relocate or Move On from the Middle East
Peter Zeihan
The United States lacks a good defense for these systems because it cannot build enough interceptors to match Iranian drone production. Moving bases to Jordan or Israel fails because Iranian drone ranges are extending daily to cover these areas, leading to a broad-scale American withdrawal from the region.
28:31
Something Utterly Bizarre Just Happened in China
Paul J. Warburg
China's technological dominance masks a fundamental weakness caused by massive debt and a lack of domestic energy resources. In the net, in China, what we see is a house of cards that is reported on as if it were a house of steel.
3:06
Israel and Turkey Call Dibs on Syria
Peter Zeihan
Syria is returning to a no man's land because globalization has ended. Israel and Turkey will struggle over the region without necessarily clashing militarily.
6:04
The U.S. Chooses Favorites: North Korea over South Korea
Peter Zeihan
The United States is abandoning South Korea, forcing it to develop nuclear weapons and triggering a regional arms race. The strategic balance of peace in Northeast Asia is ending because South Korea will likely build a nuclear weapon.
9:10
The Collapse of the World's Strategic Straits - Part 2
Peter Zeihan
The world is shifting from free international waterways to regulated choke points where local powers charge tolls and restrict global trade. This shift creates a new global order where nations near these straits hold immense leverage over energy and commerce.
Something Very Strange is Starting in Russia's Far East
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is quietly making historical concessions to its neighboring nations due to weakness from war. The scale of weakness, dependence, and concessions is only growing as Russia continues to run lower on men.
4:51
Ukraine's Flamingos Crush Russia's Space Program
Peter Zeihan
Russia is losing its technological power and becoming dependent on China while Ukraine destroys its industry. Russia will likely lose its ability to export resources from the Black and Baltic Seas before year's end.
4:49
The Collapse of the World's Strategic Straits
Peter Zeihan
The United States cannot force Iran to keep Hormuz open, leading to its transformation into a toll system. Turning Hormuz into a toll system will formally or informally break over a century of international maritime law.
42:34
The U.S. National Debt Just Reached a Bleak Milestone
Paul J. Warburg
The U.S. debt is not a solvable problem because it funds the economy, and the real risk is inflation from printing money. We must focus on the complex system as a whole rather than just the symptoms like high debt numbers.
6:33
Moving Beyond the Patriot Missile
Peter Zeihan
The United States must overhaul its defense strategy because deglobalization and Ukrainian innovation render current advanced systems unsustainable. The US will soon stop delivering Patriots, accelerating global anti-ballistic missile technology research.
A Post-American Alliance for the Middle East
Peter Zeihan
The United States is removing itself from the Eastern Hemisphere, forcing local powers to integrate for their own security. By 2030, these nations will be in a very different environment where they are preparing for a post-American world.
Russia's "Starlink Alternative" Just Got Neutralized
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine holds a decisive structural advantage over Russia in space warfare because Russia cannot build its own network while under attack. Ukraine must continue to keep pressure on Russia to prevent them from fixing their weaknesses and breaking any future peace treaty.
The Shadow Fleet Is Sinking
Peter Zeihan
A ship is sinking off Oman, causing an ecological disaster three times as bad as the Exxon Valdez. The decrepit nature of the vessels is probably being their own worst enemy.
Japan Just Suddenly Became Russia’s Worst Nightmare
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is provoking Japan over the Kuril Islands to appease China, which could backfire by pushing Japan to support Ukraine. Japan already knows that to allow Russian aggression to go unanswered is to invite more aggression.
Russia Loses Its Foothold in Syria
Peter Zeihan
Russia loses its foothold in Syria and its ability to project power into the Mediterranean. This marks a good day for everyone but Russia, as it forces them to focus exclusively on Ukraine.
Is This the End of U.S. Biofuels?
Peter Zeihan
The macroeconomic situation that led us to doing ethanol at scale is fading pretty quickly. Ethanol was fine in a highly globalized world where there were lots of options.
Ukraine Will Soon Strike Russia’s Most Important Chokepoint (WORSE than the Crimean Bridge)
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine could soon conduct a massive military campaign against Siberia that cripples Russia's war effort. Russia is going to be in a world of hurt because Ukraine will be able to do damage to Russia like they've never done it before.
Global Energy Stressors: Can Anybody Help
Peter Zeihan
It all adds up to a pretty bleak picture for energy markets. Best guess is that the shortage of 10 to 12 million barrels per day is going to go up over the next three months.
Global Energy Stressors: Can Shale Save the World
Peter Zeihan
The United States cannot provide significant additional energy exports because domestic demand for electricity has outpaced supply. Europe is unprepared for rising energy prices that will cause deindustrialization.
Russia’s economy just screamed for help. No one answered.
Paul J. Warburg
Three ordinary Russians experience the economy very differently. A Russian plumber finds more work and higher income now than before.
Global Energy Stressors: Europe's Oil Supply Problem
Peter Zeihan
Europe faces a critical winter gas shortage because Russian supplies are gone and Qatari exports have collapsed due to war damage. The combination of lost Russian supply and damaged Qatari infrastructure leaves Europe with dangerously low winter gas reserves.
Global Energy Stressors: Kazakh Oil Exports
Peter Zeihan
Over a million barrels per day of Kazakhstan's oil capacity will likely go offline permanently due to the war. There is really nothing we can do about that loss of capacity.
The Events That Caused World War II Are Now In Motion Again (nobody believed it then either)
Paul J. Warburg
Current world leaders are repeating the exact same mistakes and failed strategies as those who led to World War II. World leaders must choose a different path rather than repeating failed strategies out of fear.
Why I Don't Worry About Cyberattacks (for the most part)
Peter Zeihan
The dispersed nature of cyber defense makes it impossible for an enemy to take down the country. This physical structure passes as good news in the world these days.
What Everyone Is Getting Wrong About Russia’s Ballistic Missile Surge
Paul J. Warburg
Headlines exaggerate Ukraine's vulnerability by ignoring the scale of the crisis and failing to put it in context, leading viewers to incorrect conclusions about an existential threat. Russia is playing a desperate short-term game that creates long-term vulnerabilities, whereas Ukraine holds the superior strategic position for the long haul.
The Limits of China's Military Reach
Peter Zeihan
China utterly lacked the military means in order to protect that trade even within sight of its own shore. But we now know that if they do go down, they're going to be taking the fuel systems of a half a dozen countries that the United States cares a fair amount about as a side effect.
Leaving the World Behind: Obama vs. Trump
Peter Zeihan
The Trump administration's deal represents a strategic abdication on financial and nuclear issues. We are now in a grade below D statecraft situation.
Why Bypassing Hormuz is a Pipe Dream
Peter Zeihan
Bypassing the Strait of Hormuz via pipelines is a pipe dream because all proposed routes are vulnerable to Iranian strikes except the Turkish route, which is too small and expensive to solve the problem. The Trump administration believes this is a quick and easy fix, but it is not.
The U.S. Can't Break the (Arctic) Ice
Peter Zeihan
The United States has lost its ability to project military power in the Arctic due to fleet collapse and failed international partnerships. This strategic void will resonate throughout the remainder of the century as the world churns.
South Africa's Immigration Problem
Peter Zeihan
South Africa's immigration situation is unique and cannot be compared to any other country on the planet. There is no other country on the planet that has anything like this or has in the modern era.
Russia’s Elites are FED UP With Putin About Ukrainian Strikes
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's elites are actively working against Vladimir Putin because Ukraine's strikes threaten their personal fortunes. As Ukraine's threats increase, Russia is fracturing into competing factions that may eventually turn on Putin.
July 2026 · 39
Ukraine's Military Reshuffling Highlights Resource Problems
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine cannot fight effectively because it lacks the resources to maintain both essential drone and artillery systems simultaneously. Zelensky must personally balance two hostile factions that cannot function without him, leaving the situation unchanged.
Putin’s Worst Nightmare Just Hit Russia's Banks
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's banking system is collapsing because it cannot borrow money while being forced to fund a losing war. Ukraine's strikes on Wildberries are actively accelerating this banking crisis and could cause the whole thing to blow up.
Spain's Immigration Solution Turns Into a Crisis
Peter Zeihan
Spain's pro-immigration strategy works because its former empire provides a unique pool of young, culturally compatible workers. Whether or not anyone else can follow in their footsteps, well, that's a different question.
Ukraine is About to Turn Russia Into Hell on Earth
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is humiliating Russia through unprecedented daily innovations in drone production, range, and robotics. The trajectory of Russia's decline has reached a point where it is no longer just a trajectory; we are actually seeing it in real time.
Houthis Declare Open Season on Saudi Arabia
Peter Zeihan
The Houthis threaten Saudi oil infrastructure via Iranian-supplied drones, but logistical hurdles make immediate success doubtful. Time will tell if the hardware arrives and whether it can cause significant damage.
Ukraine Closes the Sea of Azov
Peter Zeihan
Russia's economic and military logistics are collapsing due to the loss of the Sea of Azov. The closure will cripple Russian supply lines and remain a problem for a year.
Russia's New Recruitment Crisis is Next Level Incompetence
Paul J. Warburg
Russia cannot fix its core problems because it lacks willing technical experts and relies on desperate tactics that fail against an innovative Ukrainian society. Ukraine will be victorious because its innovative capabilities and defensive preparations overwhelm Russia's desperate mobilization efforts.
Chinese Marriage Data Confirms Demographic Crisis
Peter Zeihan
China faces an irreversible demographic crisis because there are not enough people left to marry and repopulate the nation. The situation is dire and will not last much longer.
The Situation in the Black Sea is INSANE Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is permanently losing revenue while Ukraine faces only temporary, manageable losses due to its superior economic strategy and storage capabilities. Ukraine's campaign renders Russia largely irrelevant in the world market by cutting it off from the Black Sea.
Putin’s Worst Nightmare is Unfolding in Belgorod Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is proactively softening the Belgorod region and disrupting logistics to counter an expected Russian mobilization of 500,000 men. Ukraine is highly confident in its ability to prepare the ground and maintain the initiative while Russia mobilizes.
The Demographics of Central Europe
Peter Zeihan
The Central European region is depopulating so severely that historical patterns suggest a future where Turkey expands northward to fill the vacuum. Considering the timeframe, a lot of us, whether we're watching from the outside or the inside, are going to live to see it because that's not that far from now.
Russian Sleeper Cells Don't Scare Me
Peter Zeihan
High-cost intelligence requires immediate massive payoffs that do not exist in dormant operations. Sleeper cells are restricted to low-end fiction and are not a realistic threat.
Why Space and Data Centers Don't Go Together
Peter Zeihan
Anyone who tells you that data centers in space are coming because we don't have room is lying to you. So anyone who tells you that data centers in space are coming because we don't have room is lying to you.
Ukraine’s Wildberries Strikes are Ripping Russia Apart
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine's strikes on Wildberries facilities are strategically disrupting Russia's economy and military logistics. The disruption is causing growing frustration among Russians, potentially leading to internal changes.
Russia Had a DEVASTATING Week
Paul J. Warburg
Striking Wildberries facilities disrupts Russia's ability to mobilize and equip new soldiers while causing unprecedented economic chaos. The war now has a real cost on every Russian citizen and the entire supporting system.
Defending Against Rising Sea Levels
Peter Zeihan
Breaking globalization forces a switch to coal and wood, accelerating climate change and raising sea levels beyond current defenses. Humanity must adapt to rising sea levels as material shortages prevent scaling green energy without globalization.
How to Solve the Cocaine Problem
Peter Zeihan
Domesticating cocaine production is geographically impossible and economically disastrous. The simplest answer is just not do cocaine.
France Just Dealt Russia a DEVASTATING Blow
Paul J. Warburg
Countries are positioning themselves within Ukraine's future sphere of influence rather than trying to control Ukraine. Ukraine will hold power over other countries dependent on its weapons supplies.
The Future of Drone Tech: Naval Strategies
Peter Zeihan
The entire Black Sea is starting to become a no-go zone. By the end of the year, Russian access to the Black Sea for shipping will be lost.
Satellite Imagery Just Confirmed Putin's Worst Nightmare
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's removal of air defenses from strategic bases proves it is bluffing about attacking NATO. Russia is decisively losing the war due to an air defense shortage it cannot fix.
South Korea Goes All-In on Drones
Peter Zeihan
South Korea must adopt drone warfare because its demographic collapse and North Korean artillery threat make traditional armies obsolete. The DMZ in the Korean Peninsula is likely to be at the top of the list for strategic environments that will change.
Russia Just Got Some TERRIBLE News
Paul J. Warburg
There is a mathematical upper limit to the damage Russia can cause, which is insufficient to force Ukraine to capitulate. Ukraine is nowhere close to losing this war, and every country that has fought for its independence has found the cost worth it.
What’s the REAL Reason Zelensky Just Dismissed Ukraine’s Defense Minister?
Paul J. Warburg
The dismissal likely results from a strategic leadership conflict rather than corruption. Viewers should exercise critical thinking and give leaders the benefit of the doubt until the war ends.
The Future of Drone Tech: Ukraine's Innovation
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine's rapid innovation currently outpaces Russia, but Russia can produce far more units once it adapts designs and secures parts from China. This year will determine if China backs Russia to catch up or if Ukraine grinds down the Russian industrial base.
Why Nobody Came to Help the U.S in Iran
Peter Zeihan
Allies did not help because they lack independent naval power and were excluded from intelligence sharing. The situation is a trap caused by a leader who refuses to surround himself with anyone but sycophants.
The Situation on Crimea Has Become Truly Insane
Paul J. Warburg
Crimea has become uninhabitable due to fuel, electricity, water, and food shortages, forcing a collapse into a barter economy. Putin faces a massive defeat as he cannot admit the crisis while citizens flee and Ukraine proves it can reclaim Crimea using robots.
A Canadian Pipe(line) Dream
Peter Zeihan
Canada's heavy crude is trapped in North America due to lack of export routes and political friction with the US. Albertans keep talking about independence because if they can get a different relationship with the United States, then all of a sudden a lot of that mechanical stuff just disappears.
Russia is Now Fleeing the ENTIRE Sea of Azov (75 Ships Disabled!)
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is executing a successful long-term attrition strategy that disables critical Russian capabilities without suffering equivalent strategic losses. The trajectory of the war favors Ukraine, leading to an optimistic outlook for its future despite the prolonged conflict.
The U.S. and Ukraine Make a Drone Deal
Peter Zeihan
This direct contract allows the United States to take advantage of the war zone in Ukraine to help test an entirely new set of weapon systems. This represents a step in the right direction along a long path of tighter partnership.
Korean Exports Skyrocket Thanks to AI
Peter Zeihan
The current AI boom relies on a fragile global supply chain involving over 50 countries. We must build everything possible now because the current system will soon fail.
Russia Has Gone Completely Insane
Paul J. Warburg
Russia has entered a self-feeding cycle of fuel shortages, chaos, and rebellion that is destroying societal norms. The crisis will likely continue to get worse through winter, causing economic collapse and threatening survival for many Russians.
Ukraine Just DELETED Russia’s Shadow Fleet
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine knows exactly what victory is, and they are executing a strategy to achieve it. Russia has been reduced to flailing around, especially from a military standpoint, while Ukraine executes a strategy to achieve victory.
Status Update on the Persian Gulf
Peter Zeihan
The current peace deal lopsidedly serves Iran's purposes by allowing only them unrestricted access to the world's most important energy waterway. This situation is an ongoing catastrophic economic and strategic event for the world as a whole.
U.S. Oil Export Restrictions Coming Soon
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. Government must restrict energy exports to control prices as the international system loses energy. The administration will likely choose an export tax because it avoids supply shortages while raising domestic prices.
Say Goodbye to Kazakhstan Oil
Peter Zeihan
Kazakhstan relies on Russian infrastructure for oil processing. Expect more attacks on Russian infrastructure that largely exists to serve Kazakh needs.
Russia is Threatening to “Use the Nukes” Again (lol)
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's nuclear threats are fear tactics designed to manipulate Western behavior rather than genuine intentions to use them. The incentive structure in Russia actually prevents a nuclear strike, making the threats a manipulation of fear.
Russian Society is Completely Unraveling
Paul J. Warburg
Russian society is completely unraveling due to widespread dissatisfaction, elite dissent, and historical precedents for disintegration. Something dramatic really could happen in Russia, potentially destroying Putin's legacy and country.
Russia is Completely Folding Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's air defenses have never been weaker, and they continue to get weaker every single day. Right now, the war is going in a very, very clear direction.
Russia Gets Knocked Off Its Horse
Peter Zeihan
The destruction of Russia's semiconductor capacity will cause a qualitative collapse in its military hardware. The war is shifting from a slow grind to a more dynamic conflict soon.
June 2026 · 40
4:18
Ukraine Starts Cracking Open the Occupied Territories
Peter Zeihan
Russian authorities have suspended all fuel purchases for all civilians whether it's personal cars or businesses. The Russian position across the entire southern parts of the occupied territories is really falling apart.
Nukes for All! (But Finland First)
Peter Zeihan
But that is exactly the circumstances the Trump administration is unraveling. So instead, we're going to get at least another half a dozen nuclear powers in the broader world.
Russia’s Military Has Begun Abandoning the Front Lines
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is being forced into a trap where protecting cities leaves the front lines vulnerable, leading to inevitable abandonment. The situation is not good for Russia because even moving air defense systems to Moscow might not make a difference there.
The End of NATO
Peter Zeihan
The US withdrawal of assets and pre-positioning for China ends NATO's strategic purpose. Europe is forced to make procurement decisions that functionally end the alliance anyway.
The Reality of the Global Energy Situation
Peter Zeihan
The global energy shortage represents the biggest shock the human race has ever experienced. Even in the best case scenario, the situation remains terrible for everyone this summer.
Putin's Closest Ally Just Betrayed Him
Paul J. Warburg
Lukashenko's military buildup is intended to protect his regime and internal power rather than to attack Ukraine. It is more likely that Lukashenko is preparing for a potential attack by Ukraine to maintain his power.
Russians Are Now FLEEING Crimea in HUGE Numbers
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine's strategy of isolating Crimea will force millions of Russian civilians to flee, causing a massive internal crisis in Russia. The influx of millions of refugees into Russia's populated areas will create unpredictable political and social repercussions for the Russian state.
The Future of Drone Tech: Russian Scale
Peter Zeihan
There is no way that Ukrainians are anywhere close to getting any degree of control over their airspace. If the Ukrainians do manage to launch a ground assault, they're going to be doing so under a hail of glide bombs because they can't really do much about it.
France and Germany's Fighter Jet Program (FCAS) Is Dead
Peter Zeihan
Europe's abandonment of its joint fighter jet program prevents Germany from building the independent military power needed to threaten its neighbors. The decision to cancel the program is positive because it ensures Germany remains economically strong but militarily contained.
Russia's Propagandists are Panicking About Crimea Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is panicking because its military effort is disintegrating. Russia desperately wants the world to focus on minor gains at Kostyantinivka while ignoring the catastrophic isolation of Crimea.
Will Ukraine Make a Play on Crimea?
Peter Zeihan
Ukrainian drone attacks are strangling Russian logistics, turning Crimea into a strategic drain rather than a military springboard. The Russian logistical effort for the southern front will crumble if Ukrainians continue to bottle up convoys in kill zones.
Ukraine Just Warned ALL Russians to FLEE Crimea (while they still can)
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is using fuel shortages and logistical denial to force Russian citizens to flee Crimea and undermine Putin's legacy. This strategy creates circumstances in the future that will allow Ukraine to take their territory back from Russia.
Ukraine Just Triggered a MASSIVE Fuel Crisis in Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is strategically targeting civilian fuel supplies to pressure Putin and worsen Russia's long-term economic decline. The trend indicates the situation will deteriorate further in the coming years.
The Long Awaited "Iran Deal"
Peter Zeihan
The United States will release all the funds that have been frozen by all previous American administrations to Iran immediately. It is difficult to overstate what a collapse an American position agreement to this would be.
Something BIG is Brewing in Chechnya Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is facing a massive potential crisis in Chechnya, but it's not just Chechnya, let me remind you. This crisis could easily expand to the North Caucasus, to several different republics, just as it did after the First Chechen War.
The Belarus Situation is Becoming a BIG Problem for Putin
Paul J. Warburg
Lukashenko's shift from claiming Russian victory to admitting Russian defeat shows he is hedging his bets against a collapsing Russia. Russia has already lost Belarus as a loyal partner because Lukashenko now prioritizes his own safety over the union state agreement.
DHS Gets Funding... A Lot of Funding
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. population is dying faster than being born due to retiring baby boomers. He's got what he needs to do whatever he wants on the issues that he cares about as long as he's alive or in office.
Russia Just Lost Their Most Important Leader (more important than Putin)
Paul J. Warburg
Nabulina's disappearance signals that her inflation-curing policies have failed, forcing Russia toward a desperate total war economy. Russia is likely trying to push its central banker out of the way to pave the path forward towards escalation and total war.
Screwworms Take a Bite Out of Texas’ Beef Industry
Peter Zeihan
The United States lacks the expertise and capacity to control screwworms, leading to long-term economic damage. The situation represents a long-term economic burden on the system for months and years to come.
Putin's Response to Armenia's Election Was Absolutely INSANE
Paul J. Warburg
Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine completely backfired, accomplishing exactly the opposite of increasing Russia's influence in the world. Russia has already lost its international influence and failed their major objective, now just holding on for the sake of their pride.
China No Longer Controls North Korea
Peter Zeihan
North Korea is no longer a Chinese satellite but an independent state seeking leverage against Beijing. This shift makes North Korea a dangerous wildcard that will cause pain to dynamic Asian economies.
The Future of Drone Tech: Hybrid Drones
Peter Zeihan
Hybrid drones have doubled Ukrainian strike range to 100 kilometers, making Russian force massing impossible. If Ukraine clears minefields during the summer offensive season, they will achieve a decisive tactical advantage.
Putin is FURIOUS as Elite Russian Soldiers Flee Their Positions
Paul J. Warburg
It proves how Ukraine can force Russian soldiers out of their positions, which doesn't have to be through direct military action. So no matter how we slice it, this is a very, very encouraging development.
A Massive Energy Break Coming Soon
Peter Zeihan
A massive energy break is coming soon as relief measures evaporate by June or early July. Get ready for a fun summer because the deadline is probably going to happen regardless of negotiations.
Russia is Preparing to Sacrifice 1,000,000 More Men
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is preparing to sacrifice up to one million more men in a desperate, futile attempt to win a war it cannot win. The mobilization represents a needless waste of human life.
Armenian Election Signals It's Done with Russia
Peter Zeihan
Armenia must cooperate with Turkey to survive, as Russia can no longer provide security guarantees and other neighbors are unreliable. This election is really the start of a very difficult process, and we're not going to see it wrapped up this year.
The Situation in Crimea is Spiraling Out of Control
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is executing a brilliant social and psychological warfare strategy by concentrating shortages in Crimea. This campaign will lead to a Russian exodus from Crimea and accelerate dissatisfaction with the war.
Insulating the President with Loyalists
Peter Zeihan
President Trump isolates himself from intelligence agencies to ensure he remains the smartest person in the room. Trump keeps institutions away from him because he does not want anyone with real foreign policy experience near him.
The Ukraine War is About to Get MUCH Worse for Russia
Paul J. Warburg
The war is becoming more of a disaster for Russia every single day. There's a reason that President Zelensky, just a couple days before I recorded this video, sent a letter to Vladimir Putin taunting him, essentially saying exactly that, saying that Ukraine is ready for peace talks whenever Russia is.
The Future of Drone Tech: Naval Launch Platforms
Peter Zeihan
Naval drones are evolving into drone carriers that launch aerial units via tethers to bypass jamming and expand frontline reach. That is something we're probably going to see within a month or two.
The Future of Drone Tech: Mid-Range Drones
Peter Zeihan
The collapse of Russia's logistical capacity due to mid-range drones makes their current strategy unsustainable. The financial viability of this drone warfare for the Ukrainians is extremely high due to low costs.
The Future of Drone Tech: Long-Range Strikes
Peter Zeihan
Sustained drone attacks will permanently cripple Russia's ability to export oil. By year-end, Russia will lose oil power in western and northwestern Siberian fields.
America’s Decline is Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
Military dominance actually historically is a measure of willpower. The threat is that we lose access to the system that has supported the biggest wealth-gaining capabilities, really, in history, especially for a population our size.
Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt the Russian Economic Summit
Peter Zeihan
The combination of physical insecurity and technological gaps makes it impossible to justify investment in Russia. The disruption of the summit proves that no place within 600 miles of the Ukrainian border is safe.
The Future of Drone Tech: Israel's Iron Dome
Peter Zeihan
The Iron Dome system is woefully ill-designed to deal with low-level fiber optic drones that evade radar and jamming. This new technology is dramatically shifting the power balance between the Israeli military and Hezbollah.
Putin Just Had His Worst Day of the Entire War
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is caught in a trap where it must continue an expensive war to prevent economic collapse. The strike on the oil terminal was the best return on investment move Ukraine has made.
Should Alberta Secede from Canada?
Peter Zeihan
The Supreme Court of Canada ruled decades ago in the case of Quebec that if there is a plebiscite and they vote for a referendum, you've got to let them go. Independent Alberta would need to negotiate some sort of extensive free trade pact with Canada or apply for U.S. statehood and join the United States.
Russia’s Front Line Nightmare Just Got So Much Worse
Paul J. Warburg
The war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed as a stalemate ends in Ukraine's favor due to AI-driven logistics strikes. Russia is unable to supply its front lines, forcing a situation similar to Germany in World War I.
Magyar Tries to Rebuild the Visegrád Group
Peter Zeihan
The meeting is not a political alliance based on election results but a strategic shift where the Visegrád Group gains voting power. The Central Europeans can now stand up for themselves on day-to-day government issues.
Ebola Outbreak and Delayed Detection by the U.S.
Peter Zeihan
Political decisions have consequences. And one of these means that Ebola may be coming to a town near you.
May 2026 · 38
Will the U.S. and Iran Reach a Deal?
Peter Zeihan
Real negotiations aren't happening because the State Department is listless and without leadership, while Ansum Manir represents American interests in talks with Iran. We will see whether real negotiations that actually involve an American citizen begin once we hit a record low for global inventories.
Sweden Just Dealt Russia a DEVASTATING Blow
Paul J. Warburg
Sweden's delivery of Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine will neutralize Russian glide bombs and tip the tide of the war. The arrival of Gripen jets combined with growing Western support indicates Ukraine is finally positioned to defeat Russia.
Russia’s New War Strategy is Already a MASSIVE Failure
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is pivoting to a historically unsuccessful strategy of targeting civilians to break morale, but this approach is doomed to fail because it invigorates resistance rather than causing capitulation. Ukraine should continue to fight with resolve, denying Russia the victory it seeks through killing Ukrainian children.
Can Iran Control Internet Cables in the Gulf?
Peter Zeihan
Iran's targeting of internet cables exposes Gulf nations to blackmail, proving physical data connections are indefensible. The vulnerability of data cables forces a transition to satellites, creating new challenges for space sovereignty.
Civita di Bagnoregio: A Microcosm of Italy
Peter Zeihan
Resilience is really just an exercise in reimagining what it is to be stubborn. They're finding ways to turn their challenges into things that allow them to survive in the way of life that they want.
The U.S. Gets a Taste of Corruption
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. is adopting a strategy similar to Russia's 1990s approach of conflicting guidance requiring bribes. We should expect significantly more things like this.
Russia Just Made The Most Desperate Move I've Ever Seen
Paul J. Warburg
Vladimir Putin is making desperate moves by plundering bank debts because he has no other options left. Vladimir Putin is choosing to make a banking crisis worse by asking citizens to join the war instead of addressing the cause.
Taking Naval Options Away from China
Peter Zeihan
New weapon systems deployed by Japan and the US permanently lock China into the western side of the first island chain. China is screwed because every nation in the region now has the ability to destroy its economy by interrupting sea lanes.
Latvia's Political Flux Caused by Drones
Peter Zeihan
The pace of this technological revolution is overwhelming what we understand aerospace, what we understand automation, what we understand war to be. We are about to have some crazy stuff happen in calendar year 2026 as all of this comes to a head in multiple theaters.
Russia's Worst Nightmare Just Happened to Crimea
Paul J. Warburg
Sieging Crimea forces civilians to flee across the bridge, exposing the war's failure to Russian society. This strategy could lead to a movement in Russian society to get rid of Putin.
Cuba Faces a Humanitarian Crisis
Peter Zeihan
Smashing the Cuban system creates a failed state requiring military intervention and a 20-year rebuilding program rather than partnership. Getting from here to there, especially with this intermediate step of smashing the place first, is definitely the harder, more expensive way to do it.
Is Now a Good Time for China to Invade Taiwan?
Peter Zeihan
China cannot invade Taiwan successfully because the US can cut off its energy supply. The short-term distraction does not change China's overall vulnerability to US energy control.
Russia’s Banks are Failing Faster Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
Russia faces an economic death spiral worse than Japan's 1990s crisis due to ongoing war and sanctions. The main danger is runaway inflation leading to societal apathy or revolt rather than immediate collapse.
Using U.S. Energy as Leverage
Peter Zeihan
The United States will try to leverage its energy security and economic strength in order to get whatever it wants out of anyone. It is frustrating to see this leverage used against allies rather than potential foes.
Russia’s Oil Tycoons are Now Preparing for Sudden Collapse
Paul J. Warburg
Russia faces sudden economic collapse due to halted oil production and frozen infrastructure. The end of the war in Ukraine is getting closer as Russia runs out of money to fund its military.
Impacts on the U.S. Power Grid from the Iran War
Peter Zeihan
The United States is insulated from immediate Iran war impacts due to energy export status and geographic location. Indirect supply chain issues may arise later in the year affecting manufacturers.
Iran Diplomacy Has Yet to Begin
Peter Zeihan
Meaningful diplomacy has not begun because Trump refuses to allow lower-level officials to do their jobs. The entire region remains in a holding pattern until Trump realizes only a political deal can end the situation.
Trump Claims the U.S. Killed a Top ISIS Commander || Bonus Video
Peter Zeihan
Knocking off regional leaders has never impacted ground operations despite being done repeatedly. The current administration's approach will likely lead to problems for future administrations.
So You Want to Break Iran...
Peter Zeihan
Forcing Iran to accept a deal requires taking away their transport options rather than attacking oil production. Targeting the shadow fleet in the Indian Ocean is the most effective way to force Iran to the table.
Will the Swiss Cap Their Population?
Peter Zeihan
Limiting population to 10 million ends Switzerland as an advanced economy over the long run. Populist pushes on migration do not match policies that allow the economy to continue at growth rates and wealth levels enjoyed for the last century.
The Situation in Crimea is INSANE Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine has systematically cut off Crimea's air defenses, supply routes, and storage facilities, putting the peninsula in its weakest position since the war began. Ukraine has potentially decided they have done enough attrition to the Russian military and can now start setting up the next phase of the strategy, which isn't just grinding down the Russian equipment, but it's actually making some steps to start pushing forward.
This Ain't Your Father's Tanker War
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. Navy no longer has the ability to impose a strategic reality on the local basis against a fourth-rate security power. It is very, very difficult to restore access to waterways during future conflicts.
Russia Just Sold Their Entire Future to China
Paul J. Warburg
China is exploiting Russia's desperation by extracting massive discounts on resources while selling goods at inflated prices, turning Russia into a resource vassal that ultimately benefits China. Russia has effectively become a modern resource vassal where its resources ultimately benefit China, and this dynamic will likely only get worse.
Welcome to Captain Phillips' Nightmare
Peter Zeihan
The Red Sea will once again become a no-go zone. This is going from bad to worse in a very short period of time.
Russia’s Front Lines Have Never Looked Worse
Paul J. Warburg
The situation on the front lines of the war in Ukraine has never looked worse for Russia. This is a trend that is going in a very clear direction.
Why U.S. Deployments in Germany Matter
Peter Zeihan
This is arguably the most important footprint the United States has anywhere in the world for power projection. That is by far the most expensive way to do it.
Something is Going Seriously Wrong in China
Paul J. Warburg
China is facing a structural trap where coalescing factors like debt, population decline, and geopolitical shifts make recovery impossible. Historically, declining powers go to war, and Russia is identified as a potential target that could fix China's problems.
Markets Flash Back to the Past
Peter Zeihan
Markets are ignoring permanent structural breaks because they rely on American security guarantees that no longer exist. Get ready to return to the past later this year.
The Situation in Moscow is CRAZY Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Putin is terrified of internal dissent and the optics of defeat, forcing him to weaken Russia's overall strength to protect Moscow. This situation creates a massive opportunity for Ukraine to exploit Russia's vulnerabilities.
El Jardinero Gets Trimmed by Mexican Authorities
Peter Zeihan
When you have an organization... that doesn't have a clear leader, you tend to get a lot of competition within the factions, and eventually that turns into a shooting war. Mexico's near-term future is probably more fighting as the most violent cartel they have ever had now falls into infighting as well.
Russia Tucks Tail in Mali
Peter Zeihan
Russia's Africa Corps faces an embarrassing retreat across the Sahel because it lacks the capacity to fight or withdraw. The Russian presence across the Sahel will likely end with a humiliating withdrawal from north to south.
Russia Did NOT Expect India to Do This
Paul J. Warburg
India is shifting its strategic alignment from Russia to Ukraine because Ukrainian military technology and survival outcomes are superior. India's nationalist ideology prioritizes its own survival and independence, leading it to potentially separate from both Russia and China by adopting Western-aligned military technology.
Japanese Weapons Are Open for Export
Peter Zeihan
Japan's new ability to export weapons combined with its robotic society will make it a massive drone power. We are utterly unprepared for what it means when the Japanese take a lead in that sector.
The Iran War Approaches a Tipping Point
Peter Zeihan
The US blockade forces Iran to shut in wells permanently, threatening the IRGC's funding. This is the first time the people making decisions will actually feel pain.
China’s Taiwan Problem Just Got Much Worse - with Greg Terry
Paul J. Warburg
The war in Ukraine has made a Chinese invasion of Taiwan impossible through military means. The West must stop its arrogance and learn from Ukraine's example of winning through unity and action.
Russia is Now Preparing for Total Air Defense Collapse
Paul J. Warburg
Russia faces greater and widening problems with air defense than Ukraine, leading to a cascading loss of capability. The situation shows things keep getting worse for Russia and better for Ukraine, with trend lines converging.
Underwater Drones and the Future of Naval Warfare
Peter Zeihan
The global security breakdown necessitates that cargo ships mount their own weapon systems. Cargo ships must mount airborne drones to strike surface threats and maintain trade.
Ukraine Just Sabotaged China's Plot to Attack Taiwan
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine has now single-handedly made it impossible for China to ever successfully invade or annex Taiwan through military action. The war in Ukraine has caused a lot of good for the world that may, in the net, actually be a net benefit.
April 2026 · 40
America's Leg Up on Petrochemicals
Peter Zeihan
The Iran war has created a global oil shortage that makes the United States the only functional large-scale supplier of key petrochemicals. The next two years will see a shattering of petrochemical supply chains on a global basis outside of North America.
Germany is Suddenly Becoming INSANELY Powerful Again
Paul J. Warburg
Germany is rapidly transforming into a military powerhouse to replace US influence and protect Europe. Germany could become a geopolitical powerhouse that reshapes the world order if its current trajectory continues.
The Return of Kremlin Terrorism
Peter Zeihan
Russia will exploit broken people and disintegrating far-right groups to create terror cells in the West. Russia will be exposed, but the low volume of people needed to start this process makes it likely.
Italy Gives Trump the Cold Shoulder
Peter Zeihan
The United States is in the Western Hemisphere, and most of its military operations are in the Eastern Hemisphere. So we now have Italy and Spain and France and the United Kingdom that are giving the United States a cold shoulder in any number of ways.
California’s Coming Energy Crisis
Peter Zeihan
We are dealing with the fact that crude oil is shut in. That's not this year, and it's probably not next year either.
Ukraine Just Humiliated Russia in the Best Possible Way
Paul J. Warburg
The approved loan represents a decisive defeat of Russia on the political and economic fronts. This moment marks a decisive shift comparable to the American Revolution and World War II.
Iran War Winners and Losers: North American Energy
Peter Zeihan
High oil prices will force a U.S. export ban and refinery adaptation that hurts producers short-term. The conventional wisdom that a lot of people saw in the first couple of weeks of the conflict really doesn't apply.
Putin’s Own Propagandists are Now Preparing Russia for Defeat
Paul J. Warburg
The situation in Russia is seriously deteriorating, and it's deteriorating quickly. Things in Russia are developing in the direction of a revolution.
Guam and the Practical Impact of Climate Change
Peter Zeihan
Guam is the premier American leaping off point for pretty much all of Asia, but a super typhoon is striking it now and there is nothing else around. There's no really other place to plant a flag and project power from.
A New Era in Hungary: Orbán Gets the Boot
Peter Zeihan
Hungary's election of a pro-European government removes a major obstacle to European unity, but Slovakia's continued alignment with Russia prevents full consensus. The new Hungarian government will quickly restore European norms, yet Slovakia remains a persistent barrier to complete unity.
Say Goodbye to the Global Order
Peter Zeihan
Globalization is ending because naval blockades and attacks on transport infrastructure make global trade impossible. If you are dependent on global agriculture, energy, or manufacturing, you need to look at where you're getting your parts or your inputs.
Bring On the Jet Fuel Shortages
Peter Zeihan
A global jet fuel shortage will last at least a year due to production bottlenecks and lack of substitutes. There will probably be more shooting.
Russia is pursuing an INSANE new plan…it involves Belarus
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is likely building infrastructure in Belarus as a feint to distract Ukraine and control narratives rather than planning an immediate invasion. Ukraine remains not out of the woods and needs sustained support through purchasing goods from Ukrainian businesses.
MAGA – Breaking Up Is Hard
Peter Zeihan
Russia is using extreme right-wing figures to break the American political system by targeting the now-dominant MAGA movement, which Trump fails to recognize. MAGA faces the end as a unified political force.
Putin’s Paranoia is Getting Out of Control
Paul J. Warburg
Regimes only criminalize listening when they know they are no longer capable of winning the argument. The implementation of these new repressive strategies indicates an underlying problem within Russian society that will grow over time.
Russia's Banks are Now Preparing for Sudden Collapse
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is trapped in a cycle where military spending destroys productive assets while income sources vanish. Russia will likely face a long-term, boring economic depression rather than an immediate dramatic collapse.
China Tries to Build Sand Bases, Again
Peter Zeihan
The new larger island will sink bigger and crack bigger than previous attempts. The outcome is not worrisome but anticipated as a delightful disaster when military plans based on these flawed islands are tested.
Ukraine Just Launched an INCREDIBLE New Strategy Against Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Russia has to trade men to get territory while Ukraine trades machines to get territory. This is the best things have ever looked for Ukraine, at least since this war started.
The Blockade of Iran Begins
Peter Zeihan
To pressure the IRGC effectively, the US must block oil exports and prevent drone imports. The blockade is the first action that successfully targets the IRGC's specific financial interests.
The Energy Crisis: Downstream Impacts
Peter Zeihan
The combination of halted Persian Gulf exports and the loss of Russian crude will cause a severe global energy crisis within weeks. It took a war launched by Donald Trump on Iran in order to make Iranian oil legal again.
Trump Goes on a Firing Spree
Peter Zeihan
Trump's administration consists of incompetent appointees chosen for loyalty rather than skill, and firing them will not improve the situation because no better talent exists. The administration is facing more problems, inconsistencies, and incompetence as Trump loses his grip on the presidency.
Russia is Absolutely PANICKING About Hungary’s Election Results
Paul J. Warburg
Viktor Orban served Russia by stalling European unity and Ukraine aid until his people rejected his corrupt manipulation. The defeat of Orban shows that people can reject dishonest narratives and choose leaders based on vision rather than fear.
Winners and Losers of the Iran War: Ukraine and Russia
Peter Zeihan
The region used to export 22 million barrels of crude a day. It is now down to probably something between 10 and 12.
Ukraine’s New Combat Robots are Absolutely Shredding Russia Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine will ultimately be victorious because ground robotics allow it to overcome Russia's manpower advantage and win without high casualties. Ukraine needs sustainable income from selling its technology rather than handouts to rebuild itself after the war.
What Does This Ceasefire Actually Mean?
Peter Zeihan
If Trump accepts Iranian terms, it would be the greatest capitulation of American power in the Middle East in the history of the Republic. Trump has either lost his mind or he's gotten so bored of the situation, he's willing to do anything to move on.
The End of the WTO
Peter Zeihan
The collapse of the WTO will trigger decades of conflict among states and within states as existing models fail. The collapse of the WTO will trigger decades of conflict among states and within states as existing models fail.
The U.S. Has Officially Lost ALL Leverage Over Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
The average American has lost more money by not supporting Ukraine than they would have by providing thorough support. Focusing on the upfront costs of aid rather than the benefits gained from the global system results in significant financial loss.
How to End American Power
Peter Zeihan
Trump's demand for independent military forces guarantees the fastest reduction in American strategic power in our lifetimes. The current administration is actively pushing to create strategic competitors for future generations, a move described as potentially the most stupid thing possible.
So You Want to Take Iran's Oil…
Peter Zeihan
There is no good way to take other countries' oil. We will be in occupation in the Middle East just like we were for the bulk of the last 25 years.
The War in Iran Just Changed the Calculus on China’s Invasion of Taiwan
Paul J. Warburg
The war in Iran reveals that while it creates a theoretical window for China to attack Taiwan, the conflict actually makes a successful invasion much less likely due to China's lack of readiness and the rise of asymmetric warfare. In the specific context of an invasion of Taiwan, it's probably more cons than pros.
Russia Draws American Blood in Iran
Peter Zeihan
The current administration has failed to treat this deliberate sharing of tactical information as a serious negative development despite the clear threat to US military hardware and personnel. The current administration has failed to treat this deliberate sharing of tactical information as a serious negative development despite the clear threat to US military hardware and personnel.
Iran Is Hitting Saudi Energy Infrastructure Hard
Peter Zeihan
The successful Iranian attack on Jabal exposes the entire Gulf region's energy infrastructure to direct threat and long-term market disruption. Significant damage to Abkhaz could remove five to seven million barrels of crude from the market for years.
Ukraine Just Put Russia’s Economy on Life Support
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is vulnerable to collapse because its economy depends entirely on energy revenues and artificial military stimulus. The argument leads to an inevitable Russian collapse driven by the breakdown of artificial stimulus and lost industries.
A Flawed Trade System in Europe
Peter Zeihan
Europe cannot establish a viable alternative international trade order without the U.S. Navy. The European Union will fail to ratify major new trade deals due to agricultural protectionism and internal delays.
Can the British Reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
Peter Zeihan
There is not a military solution to this problem because no other country has enough naval force. The best scenario is that the US pulls out completely and the Iranians just move on, which is not likely.
Russia’s Population Collapse Just Hit Critical Levels
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is experiencing a true societal shift that is inevitable regardless of the war's outcome. One outcome is already locked in.
The Strait of Hormuz Remains Open...For Iran
Peter Zeihan
The US military is doing nothing to interrupt commercial flows going to and from Iran. Someone please tell Trump because until this is interrupted in some way, two big problems.
Ukraine’s New Iran War Deal is a NIGHTMARE for Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine's new deal with Middle Eastern countries marks a major geopolitical shift. The United States needs to intentionally reverse course to restore trust and preserve its global position.
U.S. Ground Troops Coming to Iran
Peter Zeihan
Occupying Karg Island is a bad idea because it removes Iran's oil income and invites devastating retaliation. The current plan to occupy Karg Island will end in a bit of a debacle.
The Death of the First-Time Home Buyer
Peter Zeihan
Negative population growth and capital scarcity will prevent housing prices from dropping significantly for first-time buyers this decade. Housing affordability will not improve significantly for the rest of this decade due to structural economic shifts.
March 2026 · 43
Ukraine Strikes Hit Baltic Export Facilities
Peter Zeihan
Infrastructure within about 600 miles of a hostile actor is now completely vulnerable to ongoing cheap drone attacks. We are also going to lose the crude that's coming out of the St.
How to Break Iran
Peter Zeihan
The only viable path to change the Iranian regime is to break the IRGC by crushing its economic assets. The United States must try to remove the IRGC as part of the process to change the regime.
Ukraine’s New Strategy is QUICKLY Breaking Russia
Paul J. Warburg
A new multi-layered strategy combining Ukrainian attacks and NATO enforcement is rapidly breaking Russia's energy revenue. Russia is in a massive dilemma with no effective response, as its net position is worse than before the war in Iran.
Aluminum Shortages Coming Soon
Peter Zeihan
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will cause Iranian attacks on gas infrastructure to shut down Persian Gulf smelters, creating global aluminum shortages. All six facilities will probably be going offline over the course of the next month if this war continues.
Russian Soldiers are Suddenly Being Wiped Out Like Never Before
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is losing more soldiers than it can replace while gaining no territory, leading to an unsustainable attrition crisis. Things eventually really could come to a tipping point where Russia actually just loses its ability to wage war.
As Fertilizer Falls, Famine Will Follow
Peter Zeihan
Global food production will stall and crash because the rest of the world faces a chronic nitrogen deficit within fifty years. China must think significantly different about its security policy to manage direct access to the Persian Gulf.
Marines, Uranium, and a Symbolic Win?
Peter Zeihan
The administration is looking for a way out and looking for a way to manufacture a success. Now it's like, of course, we need a new.
Ukraine FINALLY Hit Russia in the BEST Possible Place
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine has reached a unique moment where it can strike Russian energy exports without losing critical political support. Ukraine has the least to lose politically while Russia has the most to gain, making major attacks on energy infrastructure inevitable.
Trump Gets Introduced to Section 301
Peter Zeihan
Trump is forced to use the slow Section 301 process because his arbitrary tariff approach was ruled illegal and he lacks the political power to get broader authority from Congress. The administration is stuck in a stall because the legal path is blocked and the political path is unavailable.
The U.S. and Mexico Kick Off NAFTA Talks
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. Prioritizes Mexico over Canada despite better economic outcomes with Canada because political hostility prevents choosing the obvious path. The U.S. Should prioritize Canada to avoid wasting resources rebuilding infrastructure before global trade collapses.
Iran Gets a Little Less Weird
Peter Zeihan
Donald Trump extended Iran's deadline by five days. Backing down from the threat represents a victory in the age of Trump II.
Ukraine is Planning Something MASSIVE
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is presenting Russia with a massive dilemma where responding creates gaps elsewhere, and not responding leaves critical assets exposed. The chaos itself may be the desired outcome for Ukraine to grind down Russia over time.
Something INSANE is Happening in Moscow Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
The need to control information and surround yourself with an abnormal amount of security, an abnormal amount of police and soldiers, is not a sign of strength. It's actually a sign of weakness.
Why Russians are Panicking About the War in Iran - with Professor Gerdes
Paul J. Warburg
America First policies weaken the U.S. reserve currency status and create power vacuums for rivals like China. The world is heading toward a more chaotic place where conflicts continue in different formats due to unchanging human nature.
Russia’s Ukraine War Lessons Are Hitting the Gulf
Peter Zeihan
Russia has shared drone lessons with Iran, forcing the Western Gulf to run out of interceptors quickly. The Western Gulf is very close to running out of defensive firepower against incoming drones.
Russia is Now Simultaneously Collapsing Across Three Different Fronts
Paul J. Warburg
The war is shifting decisively in favor of Ukraine across three fronts: the front lines, logistics, and economy. Russia cannot sustain the war effort long-term due to collapsing fronts and economic strain, while Ukraine gains strategic leverage.
Putin Has NEVER Looked This Terrified - with Professor Gerdes
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is trapped in a strategic siege and will likely collapse internally due to economic strain and fear of rebellion. The war will likely end not on the battlefield but through an economic collapse in Russia that forces a political change.
The U.S. Dollar: Short vs. Long Term
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. dollar will rise over decades due to structural strengths but drop in the short term due to active policy choices. The result is at the moment, in a moment of global crisis, surprisingly small gains for the US dollar.
The Shield of the Americas
Peter Zeihan
Aggressive US military intervention in Latin America to combat drug cartels risks damaging vital trade relationships with Mexico. While the US can interfere deeply in the region, it cannot solve drug problems without risking the trade network.
Israel Just Hit Iran's Energy System
Peter Zeihan
If this is a conscious decision to change tactics and start going after the power infrastructure, Iran's going to become a very nasty place very soon. If this is a conscious decision to change tactics and start going after the power infrastructure, Iran's going to become a very nasty place very soon.
What You AREN’T Being Told About the War in Iran
Paul J. Warburg
The war in Iran consists of two distinct conflicts where the US wins the first but loses the second. The US will declare victory in the first war while ignoring the second, effectively losing it.
Sweden Grabs Its First Shadow Fleet Vessel
Peter Zeihan
The simultaneous exit of multiple crude sources and the capture of the shadow fleet will cause a global vessel shortage. The collapse of Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan crude combined with port shortages creates a major logistical crisis.
The U.S. Helps India and Russia Helps Iran
Peter Zeihan
The Trump administration granted India temporary waivers to import Russian crude after Persian Gulf supplies were cut off. Meaningful policy change will not occur until pro-Russian advisors like Witkoff and Gabbard are removed.
The Iran War: Enter Sting Interceptors
Peter Zeihan
Preserving global infrastructure now runs through Kiev, as Gulf states realize the need for Ukrainian tech. The best chance for preserving infrastructure runs through Kiev, and Gulf states will likely invest immense cash there.
Why Ukraine is Suddenly Pushing Russia Back
Paul J. Warburg
The war in Ukraine has fundamentally shifted from a Russian offensive to a sustainable Ukrainian counter-offensive. Time is clearly on Ukraine's side as Russia loses more soldiers than it can recruit.
The Iran War Has Sparked a Surprising Global Shift
Paul J. Warburg
The war in Iran has caused significant changes to the world order. The world order is changing as countries reorient themselves around who supplies their weapons.
Iraq, Oil, and a Break for Chevron
Peter Zeihan
American oil interests moving into Iraq were thin. Chevron is in the first position to enter negotiations.
Why Would Europe Trust France with ALL the Nukes?
Peter Zeihan
Europeans have lost confidence in the United States and will develop independent nuclear deterrents because NATO no longer guarantees their security. In the next few years, many European countries will get their own deterrent because they must make decisions that not only the Americans don't like, but other Europeans don't like either.
The U.S. LUCAS Rivals Iran's Shahed
Peter Zeihan
These are exactly the sort of weapons that we need in this transition phase from going for an old, very, very high cost system to whatever the future of drone warfare happens to look like. This achieves that basic concept at a fraction of the cost, assuming it works.
The War in Iran is Hurting Russia More Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
This war is extremely bad news for Russia. The cons for Russia are vastly understated and much more durable in terms of timeframe.
The Iran War’s New Targets: Oil, Water, and Global Chaos
Peter Zeihan
Targeting civilian water and oil infrastructure will cause rapid decivilization and mass death in the Gulf. The shift to civilian targets signals preparation for a paralyzation of general movement and global chaos.
Iceland and Norway Ponder EU Membership
Peter Zeihan
Iceland and Norway are reconsidering EU membership because the United States is acting as a predatory security guarantor demanding Greenland. The Nordic countries are shifting their strategic policy away from relying solely on the United States.
Belgium Seizes Shadow Fleet Vessel
Peter Zeihan
The shadow fleet will be destroyed by US and European actions combined with the war in Iran. The entire Shadow Fleet will be wrapped up here in a matter of weeks to a few months.
Everyone Keeps Getting This Wrong About the Iran War
Paul J. Warburg
The global system has checks and balances that prevent an Iranian blockade from causing the catastrophic financial ruin predicted by headlines. The crisis shrinks in size at each level of response, making the situation far less concerning than projected.
The Iran War: China’s Discrete Supply Route
Peter Zeihan
The current strategy allows China to supply Iran with drone components while risking its own energy security. The United States must decide whether to confront China or stop the vessels docking.
The FULL Story on the Iran War That You Aren’t Being Told
Paul J. Warburg
The US is attacking Iran primarily to achieve regime change rather than just stopping nuclear development. While a long war could hurt the global economy and briefly help Russia, Ukraine gains strategic leverage by providing essential air defense technology.
Panama Boots China from the Canal
Peter Zeihan
China's position in the Western Hemisphere is based on one very stupid assumption: that the United States will actively keep the sea safe for Chinese shipping. The United States possesses the tools to reshape diplomacy and economic activity in the region.
The Iran War - Day 6: Energy Disruption, Regime Fragmentation, and Ukraine
Peter Zeihan
The conflict has caused immediate, long-term energy disruptions while shifting Iran's warfare to a fragmented, non-political state. The deployment of cheap Ukrainian counter-drone technology offers hope despite the ongoing strategic difficulties.
Targeting Problems in Ukraine
Peter Zeihan
The United States is starting to point its finger at Ukraine about the targets it's supposed to attack in Russian territory. And if you want to talk about something that's going to hit Russia's bottom line, that's the way to do it.
The Iran War: Interceptors and a Costly Mistake
Peter Zeihan
The United States's decision to cut off military connections with Ukraine has a big price because that technology hasn't filtered up to the U.S. military. The American decision to not engage the Ukrainians where they have been defending themselves against Russian-launched Iranian Shahed drones now for three years is having a real price.
Russia is Now Actively Preparing for Financial Catastrophe
Paul J. Warburg
Often, the harder someone works to appear wealthy on the outside, the poorer that person actually is in reality. It means that eventually Russia will be forced into a position of massive inflation, far higher than anything they've experienced.
Buying Time With Drugs
Peter Zeihan
Monoclonal antibodies are too expensive and ineffective to solve aging. Focus on exercise, diet, and emotional living from birth to extend life.
Iran War Escalates: 20 Million Barrels a Day of Crude Oil Disrupted
Peter Zeihan
Sustained disruptions to global oil supply generate awful outcomes due to inelastic demand. The world is heading toward a real crisis because oil markets are stuck in an unstable holding pattern.
February 2026 · 36
Ukraine Just Unleashed a GAME CHANGER That Few Have Noticed
Paul J. Warburg
The United States risks being left behind by a shifting global order due to arrogance and a failure to recognize Ukraine's rising power. Eventually the United States could find itself in the exact same position that this region of the world currently finds itself in with the United States.
Attack on Iran Underway
Peter Zeihan
A collapse of the government in Iran is not particularly likely without a ground force. We will find out real quick whether or not the United States military has the power to do something about that dispersed nuclear program.
China's Alleged Nuclear Test
Peter Zeihan
The accusation lacks technical credibility and likely serves a political purpose rather than reflecting reality. The administration is pushing this line without sharing evidence with the wider world.
U.S. Boots on the Ground in Nigeria
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. deployment marks a shift from relying on rhetoric to gathering facts about a complex security environment. The outcome will depend on whether these troops can hold Islamic terror at bay before it spreads to central or southern Nigeria.
Russia is Absolutely PANICKING About Europe’s €90 Billion Loan to Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
Europe's €90 billion loan structure is strategically brilliant because it guarantees Ukraine long-term funding while creating future leverage over Russian leaders through frozen assets. This strategic approach is good news for ending the war.
Ukraine Goes on the Offensive
Peter Zeihan
Cutting off Starlink allows outnumbered Ukrainian forces to isolate and wipe out small Russian groups. For the moment, Ukrainian forces are pushing forward in a way critics said was never possible again.
Russia’s Military Has Hit a New Wall That They CAN'T Overcome
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is permanently losing competence and capabilities that they need to be effective. There will be a rather dramatic swing over the course of this year where Russia will look less and less effective on the battlefield, and there will be really no structural way for them to overcome that.
If Russia collapses…what happens next?
Paul J. Warburg
Claims that Russia can never collapse as a result of their war against Ukraine are the most speculative idea of all. There are strong reasons once you understand the internal makeup of Russia to see that people might actually want to split away from that country.
Finding Rare Earths in Japanese Mud
Peter Zeihan
The Japanese offshore rare earth project is unlikely to change production math due to low concentration and high costs. Japan will continue trying new technologies because it is the least resource-rich major power.
The Ukraine War, Drones, and Starlink
Peter Zeihan
Private companies now control military munitions and information, ending the era where nation-states determine security. Europe will soon clash with private institutions like Musk's as they try to rein in or redirect them.
Armenia’s Not Getting Off the Struggle Bus Just Yet
Peter Zeihan
Armenia is effectively being sold to the United States as the cheapest way to lock it into the American orbit. There is a stable basis for the moment to work with in bilateral relations in a way that really doesn't exist between the United States and any other country in the world.
The Supreme Court Just Ruled Trump's Tariffs Unconstitutional || Free Patreon Preview
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. Supreme Court just ruled that Donald Trump's tariffs are unconstitutional and that only Congress has the authority to tariff countries over a prolonged period of time. Trump is not going to abandon the tariffs.
Cuba Is Running Out of Time
Peter Zeihan
Removing Venezuela's energy support will trigger a prolonged crisis and potential government collapse in Cuba. Regardless of details, there is going to be a show soon due to the fuel shortage.
I've Got This Bridge to Sell You…
Peter Zeihan
Canada must accept U.S. terms because it lacks internal infrastructure. The alternative is to not build or use the bridge, in which Canada remains fractured and loses access to the world's largest investment and commercial market.
Russia's Leadership is Now Actively Preparing for Defeat in Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's leadership is actively preparing for defeat by prioritizing internal control over military victory. The regime is paralyzed by fear of its own people, making it paranoid rather than strong.
Ukraine’s Flamingo Missile is Making a MASSIVE Comeback
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine has overcome major hurdles to deploy Flamingo missiles, forcing Russia into a strategic dilemma that favors Ukraine's long-term victory. Consistent progress over years indicates long-term success, and the Flamingo missiles will eventually fly.
India Takes on the Shadow Fleet (Bonus Video)
Peter Zeihan
India's raid on shadow fleet vessels signals a major geopolitical shift that could cripple Russia's war economy and force a broad structured rearrangement of international politics. If the United States and India align on these economic and strategic matters, we are looking at the single biggest shift in international politics of at least the last four years.
The U.S. Navy Goes Down Under
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. Navy's plan to station submarines in Australia assumes the global system is broken beyond repair. Creating conditions that force a broken global system raises concerns about stability.
Japan Sees the Writing on the Wall
Peter Zeihan
Japan is starting to lay the groundwork for going its own way because the American alliance is no longer guaranteed. The Japanese response to whatever happens can actually be pretty quick.
Japan's Debt Crisis Is Just the Beginning
Peter Zeihan
The structural nature of the environment demographically and strategically is arguing for far bigger deficits moving forward. I don't know what is going to happen with debt.
Ukraine is Finally Calling Trump’s Bluff
Paul J. Warburg
The US lacks leverage over Ukraine because it has disengaged, so pressuring Ukraine only encourages Russia to continue the war. The best outcome is for the US to stop pressuring Ukraine and either consistently disengage or consistently engage.
Something BIG Has Changed on the Front Lines in Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
The war is progressing towards a different conclusion than expected because Ukraine has reached a point where it can do more damage behind Russian front lines. The strategy is working, and there is reason to be hopeful that Ukraine will eventually take its land back.
Trump Announces $12B Rare Earth Stockpile
Peter Zeihan
A $12 billion stockpile is insufficient because true independence requires building domestic processing infrastructure which currently lacks funding. Today, we are building the equivalent of a piggy bank that we still have to fill up.
Russia Just Declared War On My Channel
Paul J. Warburg
Russia uses disinformation to keep Western societies disengaged and apathetic rather than unified against them. Russia fears truth and unity, proving that light overcomes darkness.
The End of Nuclear Arms Control
Peter Zeihan
The end of US-Russia arms control guarantees a new era of massive global nuclear proliferation. This trend of country after country building nuclear weapons will last for at least the next 15 years.
Russia’s Starlink Crisis is Much Worse Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
The Russian military's loss of Starlink access has turned out to be much worse than expected. No matter how this ultimately plays out, the Ukrainian military is going to win in a couple of major ways.
The Two-Speed EU of the Future
Peter Zeihan
Europe cannot reform its institutions quickly enough because it lacks the cultural and legal structures for federalism, and no devastating conflict has yet occurred to force change. The EU will likely fracture under pressure rather than negotiate incrementally into a more federal structure.
Is Venezuela Ready to Move On?
Peter Zeihan
Venezuela must avoid anarchy or civil war by using amnesty and truth-telling to build a new society. This unexpected step offers a rare moment of optimism for Venezuela's future.
The Real Winners After a Chinese Collapse
Peter Zeihan
Investing in physical infrastructure that replaces Chinese industrial output is the only way to profit from a collapse. This approach is a long-term play and it is not a financial one.
The Situation in Iran Is Worse Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
The US failed to destroy Iran's nuclear program, forcing it to seek regime change via protests while Iran uses this stalemate to buy time. Iran is exploiting US hesitation to delay conflict while strengthening its position against internal threats.
Russia Just Lost One of Their Most Important Assets (in a single night!)
Paul J. Warburg
Restricting Russian access to Starlink closes critical gaps in Ukrainian defenses and removes Russia's ability to strike deep targets. The accumulation of these favorable shifts leads to increasing confidence that Ukraine will win the war.
India: Overhyped or Global Player
Peter Zeihan
India matters not as a traditional global power but as a strategic broker controlling energy access. If the United States steps back, India will become the broker for global energy trade.
Electronic Warfare Innovations and Exports
Peter Zeihan
New electronic warfare detection systems will spread globally to disrupt civilian communications. Technologies from hot zones will outwit pre-existing systems in unexpected places.
What's Wrong with the EU-India Trade Deal?
Peter Zeihan
There is no free trade on a transcontinental or trans-oceanic basis unless there's freedom of the seas and global rule of law. Countries must develop an internal regional structure to support trade rather than seeking global deals.
Purging China's Central Military Commission
Peter Zeihan
Political purges guarantee the collapse of institutions being reformed if the goal is merely political control. Today, functionally, China's military does not work.
The End of the Shadow Fleet? – French Edition
Peter Zeihan
The French seizure marks the start of dismantling the shadow fleet, causing severe economic pain for Russia and Iran. The next six months will be wild in energy markets as the fleet is dismantled.
January 2026 · 37
U.S. Trade Talks with the UK
Peter Zeihan
The United Kingdom must accept US regulatory dominance because its demographics make independence impossible. The UK has no viable alternative but to submit to US terms.
France Hits the Demographic Point of No Return
Peter Zeihan
Countries aging out now face economic dissolution because the world is no longer young enough to buy their exports. Economic dissolution is expected within a decade for Germany and China due to rapid aging.
Canada's China Option
Peter Zeihan
Canada has no viable alternative trading partner because all provinces trade more with the United States than with each other. The United States gains a uniquely beneficial deal by accessing Canadian workforce and infrastructure without paying for them.
Rolling Back Regulations in the U.S.
Peter Zeihan
Donald Trump's second term creates a dangerous situation where outdated regulations remain on the books while the administration refuses to enforce them. The solution is for the government to be the government, but the government can't be the government without people.
Russia CAN'T Get Rid of Their Gold...that's causing major problems for Putin
Paul J. Warburg
Gold is only useful if it can be converted into cash to buy needed goods and pay expenses. No matter how much Russia boasts about fiscal security, the reality is it faces an internal crisis of paying soldiers or suffering inflation.
The Semiconductor Tariff Nightmare
Peter Zeihan
The new semiconductor tariff regime will freeze high-end usage and poison U.S. reindustrialization. The policy is a horribly designed tariff that will severely chill American manufacturing.
This Trump Move Was Easy to Miss — But It Explains a Lot
Paul J. Warburg
The administration is internally weak and panicked, pursuing short-term political gains through harmful policies to secure power before midterms. The administration feels nervous about its approval ratings and is pursuing long-term damage to hang on to short-term power.
Good Luck, Texas (Prepare for the Cold Front)
Peter Zeihan
Texas faces significant but manageable risks from the cold front due to its isolated grid and regional production vulnerabilities. Recent infrastructure improvements suggest sporadic outages are possible, but mass blackouts are unlikely.
Lessons From Japan's Demographic Collapse
Peter Zeihan
Aging populations combined with broken supply chains create de-civilizational risks for nations outside the US-Japan alliance. Aligning with Japan and the US provides the most favorable security and economic access.
Latin American Militaries Can't Stop the U.S.
Peter Zeihan
The United States can easily defeat Latin American militaries but lacks the systems to manage the aftermath effectively. The U.S. government is unprepared for this, and U.S. corporations are unprepared for this because for the last 80 years, we have drilled into every American company that rule of law on a global basis is the first issue.
Russia Just Reached Its Worst Tipping Point Yet
Paul J. Warburg
The Russian military has reached its peak size and is now shrinking because it cannot replace losses faster than they occur. Ukraine does not need to be forced into a peace deal earlier than they're ready.
The End of U.S. Military Deployments?
Peter Zeihan
Withdrawing from key global bases would force rivals to build independent power, guarantee higher defense costs and long-term security challenges. The current footprint is optimized to avoid spending money or lives while controlling global security.
Venezuela's End: Peter Goes Squirrel Killin'
Peter Zeihan
The US action against Venezuela was not a dress rehearsal for attacking Iran or other nations. The US will likely pursue a muscular policy toward Iran, but not through direct regime removal.
Why on Earth Would We Take Greenland?
Peter Zeihan
The United States taking Greenland is one of the dumbest ideas that I have heard in my life. So no, not worth it.
Russia is FREAKING OUT About France’s Latest Announcement
Paul J. Warburg
The United States has misunderstood its actual level of power. There's no reason to assume that history could not repeat itself for today's most overconfident empire who doesn't understand the repercussions of the choices they are currently making.
Colombia Avoids War with the U.S.
Peter Zeihan
Colombia avoids war with the United States due to shared strategic interests and a unique security alignment. Future cooperation depends on fixing infrastructure and adapting drug interdiction strategies to new realities.
Don’t Be Fooled - Iran Has Crossed the Point of No Return
Paul J. Warburg
Iran has likely reached the point of no return, where these protests will ultimately culminate in regime change. It seems almost a certainty that the regime will collapse at some point in your lifetime if you're watching this video.
Venezuela’s End: Was a Deal Struck?
Peter Zeihan
No deal exists because Russia and China lack the ability to offer security guarantees. The US will completely dismantle China's position in the hemisphere with minimal effort this year.
The U.S. Plan for Greenland is Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
The real justification for the United States controlling Greenland is access to the rare earth metals, not merely Greenland's position. Instead of focusing on the actions that these countries might or might not take in the future, you can focus on the actions that they are actually taking today.
Venezuela Offers Trump an Oil Bribe
Peter Zeihan
Venezuela must sell oil immediately or shut down production entirely. This deal could end Venezuela as an oil power right now.
Venezuela's End: Next on the Chopping Block
Peter Zeihan
The United States is shifting from isolationism to active intervention in the Western Hemisphere to prevent foreign powers from gaining influence. While US intervention may succeed in destabilizing targets, reconstructing stable nations remains historically difficult and often fails.
The New Ukraine Proxy War
Peter Zeihan
The war has evolved into a proxy conflict between Europe and China. The United States is failing to keep pace with the changing rules of war.
Russia is Absolutely PANICKING About Venezuela Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
The US takeover of Venezuela is devastating to Russia. The world is moving more towards freedom in places that a lot of people took for granted would never be free again.
No Immigrants & Negative Growth = Canada’s Economic Tipping Point
Peter Zeihan
Closing borders without a massive change in demographic structures risks hollowing out the entire economic fabric of the country. Canada must choose between accepting higher nationalism or enduring the Trump administration to secure necessary trade deals.
"Death to the Dictator" Protests in Iran
Peter Zeihan
Iran is having a real problem adapting to the Industrial Revolution, which argues for a change in system. Just don't expect it to be overnight.
Venezuela's End: The Oil Question
Peter Zeihan
Venezuela cannot maintain its Orinoco Belt production due to a lack of skilled labor and capital. The Orinoco Belt production will likely collapse to zero without foreign investment and expertise.
The US Navy Just Seized a Russian Tanker
Peter Zeihan
The US seizure of a Russian tanker destroys the legal cover for the shadow fleet, causing its collapse and disrupting global oil supplies. We are at the beginning of a very dramatic period in human history as the global trade system sees one of its primary methods of keeping running energy starting to break down.
The US Economy Is (Kind of, Sort of) Growing
Peter Zeihan
The US economy is growing artificially due to data center bubbles and wealthy spending while the majority cuts back. When this economic structure cracks, it will hurt more than necessary because growth relies on unstable factors.
They're Lying to You About Venezuela
Paul J. Warburg
The United States intervened in Venezuela primarily to secure access to its oil reserves, not for justice or humanitarian reasons. Selective enforcement of laws against dictators creates a mafia-style society that breeds more crime and chaos.
US Foreign Policy After Trump
Peter Zeihan
The United States is flying blind in foreign policy due to the collapse of bipartisan consensus and the gutting of planning institutions. The country must wait for a new political force to emerge and rebuild the structure, a process historically taking about a decade.
This is ALREADY Russia's Worst Year Yet
Paul J. Warburg
2026 is already Russia's worst year yet because accumulated attrition, budget deficits, manpower shortages, and new Ukrainian fortifications make victory impossible. Ukraine will be in a better strategic position at the end of the year despite enduring warfare.
Venezuela's End: Reviving the Monroe Doctrine
Peter Zeihan
The United States is returning home to focus on the Western Hemisphere. Venezuela now imports 80% of its food because only one major American company remains operational enough to generate capital.
The U.S. Attack on Venezuela is Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
The U.S. capture of Maduro serves as a pretext to control Venezuelan oil while waiting for a compliant leader. Despite the underhanded methods, replacing Maduro is a net positive for the world.
The Iran Protests are Becoming Truly Insane
Paul J. Warburg
Autocratic regimes fall when they must use their power to repress people, weakening themselves until the people have nothing left to lose. The Iranian regime will almost certainly collapse within a lifetime.
The Beginning of Venezuela's End: Part 2
Peter Zeihan
Venezuela is a dead state where civilization will disintegrate. We are at the beginning of a long descending spiral into chaos, starvation, famine, civil war, and mass out-migration.
Forced Reproduction in China: The 3-Child Policy
Peter Zeihan
Forcing people to have children would require changing the residency style of the country and pushing them back to the outskirts. The Chinese no longer have enough people to even attempt, regardless of what the government tries to force upon its population.
Syria Turns Violent...Again
Peter Zeihan
The Syrian desert is inherently unstable, and without strong state control or deep US intervention, ISIS will grow stronger. Expect continued chaos in Syria unless an outside power gets deeply involved.
December 2025 · 36
This May Be the Worst News Putin Has Ever Gotten
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine's new extensive fortifications shift the war's initiative to Kyiv, making Russian victory impossible and forcing negotiations. Russia will eventually reach a point where they can go no further, allowing Ukraine to say you shall not pass.
World's Largest Nuclear Plant Coming Back Online in Japan
Peter Zeihan
Japan's unique geography forces a redundant power system that allows it to survive global energy breakdowns. Japan is better positioned than other countries to handle future energy supply disruptions.
The Beginning of the End of the Shadow Fleet
Peter Zeihan
The collapse of the Shadow Fleet will cause a multi-phase shock hitting transport and production in at least two countries. Europeans will come up with something much more appropriate to their tool set for interdiction.
Help Wanted - The US Needs More Workers
Peter Zeihan
Inflation is cooked into the system regardless of whatever else goes right or goes wrong. The only option is to increase productivity by adding new technology because capital is also in short supply.
Sub-Sea Drone Strike on Russian Sub
Peter Zeihan
Sub-sea drones represent a significant threat to Russian ports but are not a game changer in modern naval warfare due to their limited guidance capabilities. The attack marks the functional end of the Russian Black Sea Fleet within 12 months.
The Beginning of Venezuela's End
Peter Zeihan
The blockade will cause immediate food riots and a civil breakdown in Venezuela while triggering a massive global energy shock. The outcomes for Venezuela are beyond dire, leading to a general breakdown of civilization over the next several months.
Ukraine War Peace Talks
Peter Zeihan
The current peace plan guarantees a multi-theater war if implemented because it ignores Russian strategic goals. The best outcome is a failed deal leading to ongoing weapons transfers and assistance.
Putin Just Suffered ANOTHER Crippling Blow
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is suffering battlefield catastrophes where there is not a similar action happening on the other side, making this a uniquely Ukrainian advantage. Long story short, this was a big event for Ukraine.
Ukraine Hits the Caspian and Europe Goes Nuclear
Peter Zeihan
Europe is forming new nuclear powers to compensate for American withdrawal from security commitments. This situation represents just the beginning as the United States dares Europeans to look after their own security.
Mexico Horses Around with Tariffs
Peter Zeihan
Mexico's new tariff bill locks the US into a privileged economic union. The structure guarantees US-Mexico cooperation for the next two decades regardless of politics.
Putin Just Got Some REALLY Bad News
Paul J. Warburg
Europe's decision to finally fund a $90 billion loan for Ukraine is actually genius. This really does guarantee a Ukrainian victory so long as it keeps up.
Bonus Video: The Death of the US Tech Sector: Part 2
Peter Zeihan
The US tech sector is dying because the demographic window has closed and cheap capital is gone. The future of tech doesn't look great because there will be fewer breakthroughs and manufacturing capacity is lost.
Bonus Video: The Death of the US Tech Sector: Part 1
Peter Zeihan
Tariffs actively disincentivize American participation in global supply chains. When deglobalization gets worse and China goes away, we will have very little to work from.
What’s Trump REALLY doing in Venezuela right now?
Paul J. Warburg
The US blocked Venezuelan oil not to invade, but to reduce global supply and protect its own unprofitable producers. The most likely goal is to prevent Venezuelan oil from reaching the market rather than invading.
North Carolina's Silicon Mines: Leverage for the US?
Peter Zeihan
Anyone who tells you that the Chinese can overtake us in this industry is ridiculous. But also, anyone who tells you that we could do it ourselves is ridiculous.
Ukraine Never Ceases to Amaze Me
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is not losing the war; historical trends show defenders win if they wait long enough for aggressors to exhaust their resources. Ukraine must wait to outlast the enemy, as Russia is progressively weaker and Ukraine is progressively stronger.
Russia’s Point of No Return is Closer Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
Today, in the modern day, Russia looks very powerful on paper, but the reality is that they are getting quite close to the end of their actual resources. The reality is that Russia is almost out of gold.
The Russian Breakdown
Peter Zeihan
Russia will not immediately fall if it loses Ukraine, but long-term demographic shifts guarantee its eventual collapse. The end of the Russian Federation before the end of the century is pretty much certain.
Who Needs National Security Guidance Anyways
Peter Zeihan
The new national security document functions as a domestic political campaign tool rather than strategic guidance. The inability to build institutions while tearing them down reduces global influence for decades.
What Would a Conflict in Taiwan Look Like?
Peter Zeihan
Any meaningful attack on Taiwan is not just the beginning of the end of China's strategic power. It's the end of China as an entity.
Uh Oh for Space
Peter Zeihan
Russia may intentionally disrupt low Earth orbit to make space unusable for others. If Russia cannot use space meaningfully anymore, making the orbit unusable benefits them by removing competition.
Why is America Intentionally Throwing Away its Global Power?
Paul J. Warburg
America is intentionally sacrificing its long-term global power and prosperity by abandoning the system that created it. There's still a chance for the United States to go back to the way it was, to be the global power it was.
Yes, Russia is Really Running Out of Money
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is economically desperate and fundamentally weak because it is forced to cut military pay and sell gold reserves. Russia is clearly economically desperate and its strategy for solvency is failing as it undermines its own long-term power.
Israel Is Defending...Germany?!?
Peter Zeihan
Germany is rearming with Israeli technology because Russian missiles from Kaliningrad threaten its survival. Germany must integrate this system immediately to prevent Poland from being the next target if the war expands.
What's The Deal in Canada?
Peter Zeihan
Prime Minister Carney and Alberta Premier Smith reached a compromise on energy and carbon pricing after years of conflict. I'm hopeful they've got a lot of work ahead of them.
U.S. War Crimes in Venezuela? Here's What's Happening
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. is engaging in war crimes and encouraging drug smuggling through contradictory policies. The world is currently all over the place regarding these chaotic events.
Russia Just Reached a Critical Tipping Point
Paul J. Warburg
Putin's strategy of paying soldiers has collapsed, forcing him toward conscription that threatens his regime. The longer Ukraine holds its ground, the worse things get for Russia as recruitment fails.
Ukraine Just Unleashed a Secret Weapon Behind Russia’s Front Lines
Paul J. Warburg
Russia will lose the war in Ukraine if it devolves into an insurgency phase, just as the Soviet Union lost in Afghanistan. The only practical way to end this war is for Ukraine to fully retake its territory and restabilize it.
Ukraine Targets the CPC in Recent Drone Strikes
Peter Zeihan
Combined attacks on Black Sea and Baltic routes approach the upper limit of removable global oil flow. Calendar year 2026 is predicted to start with a major energy disruption.
Where Would I Put a US Semiconductor Fab?
Peter Zeihan
The Midwest is the only viable location for a full semiconductor sector transplant. The obstacles are many, but the investments will be huge.
Global Depression Is Coming Sooner Than Expected
Peter Zeihan
Trump's policies are not the primary cause of an impending global depression; rather, they are accelerating a collapse that was already inevitable due to long-term demographic shifts and deglobalization trends. Current U.S. policies make the situation worse for the United States than it needs to be.
Kessler Syndrome and the Future of Space
Peter Zeihan
Adding more satellites to a crowded orbit creates a risk of triggering a cascade of debris that renders low Earth orbit permanently unusable for space exploration. A catastrophic debris event would likely clear the orbit within a decade, allowing for a fresh start after a ten-year setback.
South Korea and the US Make a Nuclear Deal
Peter Zeihan
South Korea could build nuclear missiles on new submarines within a year, forcing Japan and Taiwan to follow suit. This decision might increase South Korean security but will come at the cost of introducing an arms race to the broader region.
Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan to End the Ukraine War
Peter Zeihan
The plan forces Ukraine to never apply for NATO membership and enshrine that refusal into their constitution. I consider that a win.
The Reality of Electricity in America
Peter Zeihan
The US cannot build a digital future without nuclear power or coal. Anyone who cannot lay it out like that to you has been blinded by a degree of ideology or personal interests.
Ukraine is Now Striking Russia’s Shadow Fleet
Paul J. Warburg
The decisive front is economic warfare that targets leadership and citizens, not territorial battles or soldier losses. Ukraine is winning strategically by targeting the economy while media focuses on combat zones that produce no meaningful results.
November 2025 · 38
Navigating Reindustrialization in a Deglobalized World
Peter Zeihan
Deglobalization and tariffs will prevent a broad civilian economic boom despite increased defense spending, as the necessary infrastructure for industrialization cannot be built quickly enough. The civilian sector will not benefit from the military buildup, and critical technologies like AI will face decades of delay due to supply chain constraints.
Why Russia Is Desperately Selling Off Its Gold
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is selling gold to oligarchs because its war chest is gone and it cannot fund the war anymore. The Russian regime will likely fall as it runs out of money and soldiers to continue the conflict.
Can Anyone Replicate the US Shale Revolution?
Peter Zeihan
Australia cannot easily replicate the US shale revolution due to geological distance from cities, water scarcity, and lack of mineral rights. Only Argentina, Mexico, and Canada are positioned closer to achieving similar shale success than Australia.
Child Care for All? In New Mexico?
Peter Zeihan
For the first time in the United States, we actually have somebody at the state level that is thinking about what the future of the demographic profile looks like and what the future of the workforce looks like. I call that good news.
Ukraine's Energy Scandal
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine's energy corruption stems from a Soviet-era focus on volume over efficiency, which war has now exposed. The collapse of the old statist model will force a significant overhaul of Ukraine's remaining energy infrastructure.
Why China is Suddenly Turning Against Russia
Paul J. Warburg
China is exploiting Russia's weakness to culturally and economically take over Siberia, potentially justifying a future military invasion. Russia does not have a lot of options if China decides they actually want to do something.
Why India is Suddenly Abandoning Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is learning a difficult lesson about its international partners. Russia is now on a steady path of decline.
China's New Ship: Enter the Sichuan
Peter Zeihan
The new Chinese carrier is designed only for regional intimidation within the first island chain and is useless against major naval powers. The vessel serves no purpose beyond intimidating weaker neighbors in the immediate periphery.
Ukraine’s New Drone Killer: The Octopus
Peter Zeihan
The Octopus drone represents a potential shift in warfare if it can be produced cheaply enough to hunt other drones. We will know by the end of the year if this new defense works or not.
Let's Crush the Biggest Myth About the Ukraine War
Paul J. Warburg
The belief that the war in Ukraine has gone on too long is a myth because historical evidence shows long wars favor defenders. Continuing to fight makes more sense historically and logically than surrendering now.
Demographic Lessons from the Mongols
Peter Zeihan
Shrinking populations render existing economic models obsolete, requiring new systems to be invented. Change is guaranteed, but the time it takes for new systems to settle remains unpredictable.
Russia’s Attacks on Poland Are NOT What You Think
Paul J. Warburg
Russia provokes Europe to distract attention from Ukraine, causing leaders to stockpile obsolete weapons instead of aiding the actual battlefield. Leaders must have the courage to risk their political careers to impose consequences on Russia and support Ukraine.
Why Ukraine WON'T Sign the U.S. "Peace Deal"
Paul J. Warburg
The United States does not have any leverage to force Ukraine into accepting a peace deal that requires conceding land. The US must stop trying to tell Ukraine what to do and instead apply its military and economic might against Russia.
There's a BIG Crisis Brewing for Russia in Occupied Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
Russia has effectively destroyed the value of the land that they've taken. Liberation for Russia actually looks like: if I can't have it, you can't have it either.
Russia is Bracing for a MASSIVE Revenue Shock
Paul J. Warburg
The rapid collapse of oil prices and the loss of buyer confidence will cause Russia to lose its ability to fund the war economically. Ukraine's strategy is to hold on as long as possible to accelerate Russia's economic decline.
Can 3D Printing Save U.S. Manufacturing?
Peter Zeihan
While 3D printing will find more niches as deglobalization kicks in, it will always be coming from behind when it comes to mass application because of that speed issue. The speaker likes the technology and wishes we would hurry up and get there, acknowledging its incremental improvement despite current limitations.
Russia’s Shadow Fleet Just Suffered a FATAL Blow
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's ability to fund its war is being destroyed by a combination of sanctions and kinetic strikes on energy terminals. The strategy is working because the US now benefits from higher prices, making support more dependable.
The AI Race to Regression
Peter Zeihan
We are in a moment right now where AI is possible with ChatGPT 5.0 and all the rest, that will not last. We're going to see the beginning of that within this next decade.
The Fourth Shale Revolution: Supermajor Tech
Peter Zeihan
The shale revolution is nowhere near done. So this year is not the last year of the shale revolution.
Crippling the Kremlin with Russian Sanctions
Peter Zeihan
The sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil will cripple the Kremlin because they cannot operate their own assets. This marks the first time this administration has shown awareness of political and economic realities on the ground.
Myanmar Is More Important Than You Think
Peter Zeihan
Myanmar holds strategic value for global manufacturing, drug supply reduction, and Chinese trade alternatives. December elections will determine if Myanmar becomes a step toward Western access or remains under military control.
The Semiconductor Frontier
Peter Zeihan
The semiconductor industry faces a critical juncture where new technology could either revive Intel or leave it as a solid second-best player, all while remaining dangerously dependent on fragile global supply chains. While there is a little sliver of hope that high numerical aperture technology might simplify supply chains, the industry remains overextended and threatened.
Ukraine Just Exposed China’s Greatest Weakness
Paul J. Warburg
China's greatest weakness is its inherent dependence on the Western world for economic survival. Because China relies so heavily on Western trade, it is not nearly the threat that most people think it is.
New Strategies in the Ukraine War
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine's shift to targeting moving trains and uninsured oil tankers creates a new, dangerous phase in the war. The speaker believes the next month or two will reveal how this new strategy plays out.
The Last Generation to Protest
Peter Zeihan
The places where youth protests can change government structure are becoming fewer and less important. The global stage for youth protests is shrinking as major economies age out of the protest phase.
What Everyone Gets Wrong About China Invading Taiwan
Paul J. Warburg
Threatening invasion benefits China politically while actual invasion brings only costs. The actual danger to Taiwan is not military invasion but a long-term propaganda campaign.
How Was Trump's Trip to Asia?
Peter Zeihan
Trade relationships with aging nations must eventually go to zero regardless of political reasons. The back and forth and the ebb and flow continues without final resolution.
Something is Going Seriously Wrong With China
Paul J. Warburg
China is doomed because it repeats the fatal mistakes of overextended empires by trying to be both a continental and maritime power without the necessary resources. The speaker concludes that China's rise has reached its upper limit and a period of progressive decline is now inevitable.
Imminent US Strikes Against Venezuelan Government
Peter Zeihan
Overthrowing the Venezuelan government is easy, but rebuilding it afterward will be messy. Whatever comes next to Venezuela, it's going to be messy.
Russia Does NOT Want You to Know the Truth About Their Nukes
Paul J. Warburg
Russia uses nuclear threats as propaganda to avoid conventional war rather than intending actual use. Russia's bluffing creates global instability by encouraging other dictators to seek nuclear weapons.
Markets Drop After Fed Rate Cut
Peter Zeihan
The Fed faces a hardwired box where investment is difficult, consumption is expensive, and inflation is rising. The Fed is in a bit of a box because the White House is part of the problem and baby boomers are no longer part of the solution.
Announcing My New Book: Acceptable Range
Peter Zeihan
The speaker announces his fifth book, Acceptable Range, which will be released between late 2026 and 2027. This new work is a fictional story set against the backdrop of globalization's collapse.
Why I'm Bullish on Southeast Asia
Peter Zeihan
Southeast Asia is well positioned to take advantage of both regional trade and demographics. These countries look good on their own.
Will Japan and South Korea Gang Up on China?
Peter Zeihan
Japan and South Korea cannot form a meaningful alliance against China due to historical hatred and shared economic vulnerabilities. The United States is moving in a direction that damages its relationship with Japan, causing Japan to evaluate other options for its security.
Slavery Can't Fix China's Demography
Peter Zeihan
China cannot fix its demographic collapse by importing a massive workforce because neighboring countries lack sufficient populations or are hostile. Current economic models like fascism, socialism, communism, or capitalism will simply not work much longer for many countries.
These Six Countries Are Running Out of People
Peter Zeihan
Six specific countries face severe demographic challenges due to unique historical or geographical factors. India and Brazil must improve birth rates immediately to avoid future demographic degradation.
The Future of Bolivian Lithium
Peter Zeihan
Bolivia faces tough times because it lacks the legal structure for lithium extraction while global demand trends are fading. The speaker concludes that Bolivia is currently hanging at a soft point for commodities with tough times ahead.
Regime Change for Venezuela
Peter Zeihan
Removing the Maduro government will trigger a civil war and state collapse that makes conditions worse than they currently are. The operation will likely cause almost one-third of the population to flee the country again.
October 2025 · 34
Ukraine Has Exposed the Truth About China’s Military (It’s Embarrassing!)
Paul J. Warburg
The world overestimates the power of nations like China and Russia, which are only a fraction as powerful as most people think they are. China has far more to lose by getting involved in a major global conflict than it does by staying out of global conflict.
A Reckoning for Pakistan
Peter Zeihan
Pakistan faces an internal reckoning because it was built for external warfare and relies on globalization. The Punjabis certainly aren't going to go down quietly as the built-in tension of the Pakistani state finally being laid bare for all to see.
Bonus Video - Russia: Trump Pulls the Trigger
Peter Zeihan
Trump's current sanctions are insufficient to change Russia's view because they lack the scale and administrative capacity needed for a total embargo. The Trump administration faces significant challenges in building the government structures required to enforce effective secondary sanctions.
Russia Is Officially On Its Last Reserves
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is completely incapable of actually winning the war anymore. Ukraine will continue holding the front line as long as it takes to actually win the war.
Trump and Petro Revive the Colombian Cocaine Industry
Peter Zeihan
The US withdrawal of aid will force Colombian farmers back to coca cultivation. The Trump administration has established the perfect environment to make sure cocaine acreage explodes.
A $20 Billion Band-Aid for Argentina
Peter Zeihan
Argentina has proven that if you get up every day for decades and try to figure out how I can make it a little bit worse, you can overpower geography. The United States is a powerful country largely because of its geography, but Argentina has the second best geography in the world.
Qatar Bribes Its Way into Idaho
Peter Zeihan
The US must accept Qatari bribes and funding to maintain its status as a global great power. The US has no choice but to accept these arrangements as the price of its global influence.
Venezuela and the War Powers Act
Peter Zeihan
the president still can do whatever he wants so long as Congress does not act. unless and until Congress starts acting like Congress, the Trump administration has full leave to do whatever it wants legally.
Russia’s Oil Crisis Keeps Getting So Much Worse
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is implementing price caps on gasoline to shift blame for shortages onto business owners rather than taking responsibility for economic collapse. The government fears its people and knows that forcing them to feel the war's costs could lead to revolution.
Congressional Midterms: Electoral Bloodbath or More of the Same
Peter Zeihan
The midterms will be a redux of what we've seen the last three election cycles because no alternative parties exist. Electoral bloodbath is not seen, but a broad electoral reset over the remainder of the decade remains a different question.
Tomahawk Missiles for Ukraine
Peter Zeihan
The speaker argues that sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine is unlikely because the required land-based delivery systems are not yet ready. If such weapons were sent, it would place the US in a fundamentally new position using Moscow for target practice.
Ukraine’s Military is Becoming INSANELY Powerful
Paul J. Warburg
The war in Ukraine has completely changed the future for all of humanity. We have a chance to use them to our benefit.
I’ve Never Seen Russia Look This Vulnerable
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is entering winter completely unprepared for energy and logistics, making General Winter a source of vulnerability rather than invincibility. The inability to prevent all problems will lead many Russian people to become upset with Vladimir Putin and realize the actual cost of the war.
So, You Want to Invade Venezuela...
Peter Zeihan
Knocking off Nicolas Maduro and his government is not the hard part. The hard part is then keeping the city and the country alive.
Israel-Palestine: Credit Where Credit's Due
Peter Zeihan
The current peace is a temporary success due to Kushner's business leverage, but it will fail because land scarcity and contradictory agreements remain unresolved. The deal is built on contradictions and everyone agreeing to disagree, meaning violence will return sooner or later.
All That Bitchin' Won't Keep China Around
Peter Zeihan
The trade relationship with China is going to zero regardless of tariffs or politics. Everyone needs to plan for a world without China sooner or later.
I’ve Never Seen Putin This Paranoid
Paul J. Warburg
When you start lashing out in paranoia against every potential opponent, what you reveal is you actually don't believe yourself to be that powerful. Coups are not the exception to the historical rules, but rather, coups tend to be the natural outworking of these types of systems.
Putin's Biggest Nightmare is Now Coming True
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is executing a brilliant strategy to force Russian citizens off Crimea by making life unsustainable while leaving an escape route open. This approach solves the biggest problem of retaking Crimea by providing a safe, voluntary exit for Russian citizens rather than forcing them to flee.
Should China Invade Siberia?
Peter Zeihan
Invading Russia is never as easy, it sounds. No sign that that is happening right now.
Putin's Favorite Puppet State is About to Collapse
Paul J. Warburg
Dictators destroying themselves in their quest to hold on to power. The very mechanisms that Putin and Lukashenko used to hold on to their power ultimately led to their demise.
Life After Trump: President JD Vance
Peter Zeihan
The short answer is no idea. It will not happen because of the circle of people he surrounds himself with, which makes it overall a risky bet.
Would You Like Some Plutonium with That?
Peter Zeihan
The US lacks the materials processing capabilities and civilian plutonium infrastructure required to safely implement MOX fuel for grid expansion. The only country in the world that has decided that putting weapons-grade plutonium in civilian hands is a good idea is Russia.
A Dark Future for American Agriculture
Peter Zeihan
You need to prepare for the world where China doesn't buy any of your stuff. The only possible way that we exit this next five-year period with all of our producers is if somehow the Trump administration works out a French-style support system.
A Break for Ukraine
Peter Zeihan
The potential provision of precision targeting information could destroy Russia's primary income source and force allies to stop subsidizing the war. Once the intel is provided, for every day that it is there, the Ukrainians will definitely be striking, leading to a dramatic change in the course of the war.
Russia's 'Dutch Disease' Just Became Fatal
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's economy is fatally diseased by Dutch disease, which will cause it to collapse. Russia must end the war immediately because command economies cannot recover from this structural weakness.
A Rare Sign of Life in Congress
Peter Zeihan
The Republican Party has effectively ceased to exist as an institution, but the withdrawal of E.J. Antoni's nomination shows Congress is finally considering acting independently. This event marks a very good day because Congress is finally considering doing its job as an independent branch of government.
America’s Generals Gathered for...That?
Peter Zeihan
Pete Hegseth is the least qualified defense secretary in American history and his policies will cripple recruitment. The speaker considers the event a win despite the bumbling leadership and lack of encouragement.
And You Thought the Jones Act Was Dumb...
Peter Zeihan
The Jones Act is one of the dumbest laws ever adopted by the United States. The Jones Act now faces competition from new tariffs affecting the American economy.
Testing NATO (Trump and Europe Prepare for the Worst)
Peter Zeihan
Russia tests NATO capabilities to determine if allies can fight effectively without overwhelming force. NATO states will begin massive rearmament regardless of the results of this initial testing.
Say Goodbye to the World's Trade Routes
Peter Zeihan
Globalization breaks down and military alliances fracture, causing multiple trade routes to face danger simultaneously. Middle East shipments look really bad, the Red Sea is not much better, and the Baltic is something to keep an eye on.
What Does a Post US NATO Look Like?
Peter Zeihan
Europe must reorganize into a military grouping led by France, Poland, and the Scandinavians because the current economic union is failing due to demographics. Sweden, Poland, and France are the ones to watch the most in terms of economics and defense.
10:50
The Most Violent Chapter of Israel and Palestine
Peter Zeihan
The current extreme violence is driven by a unique convergence of strategic emptiness, political incentives for war, and a broken information system. There is literally no place for the Gazans to go if they were to be relocated, so extreme violence will continue.
+3
Immigration and Tariff Policies Stunt US Economy
Peter Zeihan
The combination of collapsing immigration and high tariffs will generate an economic adjustment soon. Manufacturing is the sector to look at first because it is easiest to relocate supply chains outside of the country.
Ukraine’s HUGE Advantage Over Russia is Now Impossible to Ignore
Paul J. Warburg
The real problem isn't just the underlying political system, it's what that underlying political system does. When you have too much wealth in the hands of too few people, it creates a societal structure where people start to look to those people for opportunities.
September 2025 · 34
Siberia Now Wants to Secede From Russia
Paul J. Warburg
The war in Ukraine has created conditions where Eastern Russian republics may break away from Moscow, potentially turning to China for protection. If China decides to step in and offer protection to independence movements, it could be the catalyst that triggers the breakup of Russia.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan Sign A Mutual Defense Treaty
Peter Zeihan
The United States is getting out of the mutual security business. We should expect to see more and more things like this as we are not in that world anymore.
The Pressure Is Dialing Up on Russia’s Oil Network
Peter Zeihan
The Russians are losing flexibility within their system. We could be, three years into this war, finally on the verge of a crude shortage because the Russians just can't play.
Nvidia Purchases $5 Billion of Intel Stock
Peter Zeihan
The partnership between NVIDIA and Intel does not speed up the process or move the needle for anyone. NVIDIA has design capabilities but lacks the manufacturing technology required to compete at the highest level.
Russia's New Crisis Could Be Their Worst One Yet
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is playing a long game by destroying air defense systems faster than Russia can replace them, forcing Moscow to abandon distant regions to protect its own elite. Ukraine must keep executing this winning strategy to show Russia that attacking a free people whose homes and families are at stake will not succeed.
The Swiss Are Screwed
Peter Zeihan
Either the Swiss are going to have a catastrophic reduction in their standard of living as industries basically can no longer function in the new environment, or they have to get in bed with the monster that is at the door and that's the European Union. Not a great position to be in, but that's where they are.
Ukraine (And Everyone Else) Develops Glide Bombs
Peter Zeihan
The era of American strategic primacy with global reach is now over. It is now a question about managing the withdrawal and dealing with the consequences of that.
Everybody Wants to Bomb Qatar
Peter Zeihan
The United States looks toothless after allowing an attack on its own base location. This situation will have consequences here, there, and a lot of places in between.
The Federal Reserve's Dilemma
Peter Zeihan
The Federal Reserve faces a no-win situation where it cannot balance growth and inflation due to conflicting policies. Governance is hard, especially when you're a quasi-independent institution like the Federal Reserve.
Why Trump's Stance on Canada Makes Sense
Peter Zeihan
An independent power on America's borders bears a security risk and is strategically unsound. Annexation is financially impossible, but maintaining Canada as an independent neighbor contradicts long-term US strategic interests.
Russia’s Energy Crisis is MUCH Worse Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure create an unsolvable dilemma for Russia between funding the war and keeping its people alive. Russia is heading into a very rough winter with guaranteed downstream effects.
Syria and the Return of the March
Peter Zeihan
Syria is returning to being a march. We will see more of the world looking like Syria.
Ukraine Hammers Russian Oil Infrastructure
Peter Zeihan
If Russian crude cannot flow due to offline infrastructure, the Russian economic situation would then become a lot more difficult because oil sales remain what they have always been for Moscow. With politics changed and economic dependencies shifted, we should expect a lot more Russian crude going offline.
Russia's Attack On Poland Did NOT Go As Planned
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's recent incursions into Poland and Romania were a failed strategy designed to provoke NATO into reducing support for Ukraine. European leaders have responded by investing in Ukrainian interceptor drones, actively hurting Russia's strategy instead of helping it.
Russians Are Becoming FURIOUS About Putin’s War
Paul J. Warburg
The idea that the Russian people are too resilient and strong to ever quit or demand changes from their government is completely wrong. We need to stop believing in the myth of Russian invincibility.
While I Was Gone, Part 4: US Security
Peter Zeihan
The administration is leaking classified information massively and using the military for urban pacification. We are nearing a point where severe degradations in our models will take decades to unfuck.
Europe Might ACTUALLY Send Troops to Ukraine Now
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's victory depends on the assumption that European troops will not intervene, a mistake similar to Nazi Germany at Stalingrad. The speaker believes European intervention is inevitable as public opinion shifts, and Western nations owe Ukraine support for giving up its defense.
While I Was Gone, Part 3: Economic Status
Peter Zeihan
The Trump administration is pushing the US toward a constrained managed demand model that sacrifices efficiency for government control. The US should wait and observe other nations before adopting any new economic system, ensuring it is coherent and geared toward American strengths.
Russia is QUICKLY Losing its Ability to Wage War
Paul J. Warburg
Russia has lost the ability to wage war in the traditional sense and must switch to terrorizing Ukrainian cities. The Western world needs to recognize Ukraine's strength and give them what is needed to continue fighting for as long as possible.
What Everyone Missed About Russia’s Attack on Poland
Paul J. Warburg
Russia sends small incursions to distract NATO resources from Ukraine by exploiting fear and fragmented thinking. NATO should ignore Russia's threats and send functional weapons to Ukraine immediately.
While I Was Gone, Part 2: US Health
Peter Zeihan
The US bioweapons defense system has stopped because mRNA technology allows rapid production, but a freak show running HHS prevents effective response. The United States is now basically sitting in a box, digging itself into a hole and not even looking out for future threats.
While I Was Gone, Part 1: Trade Policy Updates
Peter Zeihan
The current trade policy creates a significant breakdown of American manufacturing due to legal uncertainty and lack of government staffing. The situation remains unfavorable for the United States regardless of the Supreme Court's final decision on tariffs.
Russia’s New Strategy Has ALREADY Failed
Paul J. Warburg
Russia has exhausted all strategic options after repeatedly failing and returning to the drawing board. Russia has gone back to the drawing board so many times that, in my opinion, it's now completely scribbled over.
Russia is LOSING the Battle for Crimea
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is playing a long game by exploiting Russian psychology and leaving a golden bridge for its opponent. It is in Ukraine's best interests for Russia to hold Crimea as long as possible until it becomes the very last target.
Should the UAE Invest in a Tech Sector?
Peter Zeihan
The UAE lacks the skilled labor required to operate high-end semiconductor facilities. The resulting data center project will be too expensive and located too far from demand to be useful.
The Automation of War Drags On
Peter Zeihan
Processing data is not the same as thinking. Autonomous weapon systems are simply not anywhere close.
Ukraine's New Flamingo Missiles Are ALREADY Crushing Russia
Paul J. Warburg
The Flamingo missile gives Ukraine the ability to paralyze the Russian economy and force negotiations without Western aid. Russia is left with no good options as any choice to reduce impact in one area increases it in another.
Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap
Peter Zeihan
Countries avoid the middle-income trap only by combining openness, advanced education, rule of law, and a growing population. The United States has done everything right but now faces a generational crisis due to falling birth rates below replacement levels.
Russia Just Fell for China’s Biggest Trick Yet
Paul J. Warburg
The relationship between Russia and China is one of convenience where China uses Russia to weaken itself and secure cheap energy for future goals. When it comes to the nature of China actually being able to help Russia and actually wanting to help Russia, what you need to look at are not the nice words that China and Russia throw at each other, but rather the actual concrete realities of how energy physically moves across physical territory.
Automation of US Agriculture
Peter Zeihan
Automation cannot solve the agricultural worker shortage because current technology lacks mobility and dexterity for delicate tasks. A separation in pricing will occur between automatable crops and those requiring human labor.
Ukraine Just Turned Russia’s Greatest Strength Into a FATAL Weakness
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine is turning Russia's biggest historical advantage of harsh winters into a fatal weakness by actively disrupting its long supply lines with modern weapons. Russia really should have negotiated while they had the chance before heading into winter with such vulnerable logistics.
Can China Break Through the First Island Chain?
Peter Zeihan
China cannot break through the First Island Chain without the United States because it lacks the resources to conquer the necessary territories. An alliance of the First Island Chain nations is not needed because China is incapable of taking on the whole thing.
George Jetson Would Be Disappointed with Autonomous Vehicles
Peter Zeihan
George Jetson would be disappointed with autonomous vehicles because the necessary infrastructure and chips are disappearing. Individual person vehicles will not be autopiloted or electric for much longer, though truck convoys may succeed.
Will the Drought in Iran Cause Political Change?
Peter Zeihan
The short answer is probably not that this will cause political change. They're moving in the right direction in order to buy themselves more time.
August 2025 · 33
Ukraine Just Outsmarted Russia in the Most Embarrassing Way
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine uses psychological trickery to make Russian soldiers afraid of exploiting battlefield advantages. Russia is forced back to the drawing board with very few options left to win the war.
Something BIG is Breaking in Russia Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Russia faces a catastrophic energy crisis this winter due to aggressive Ukrainian strikes and lack of international aid. Things are looking bad for Russia this winter already, and it's only barely about to be September.
Smokey Bear's Best Friend: fire.airnow.gov
Peter Zeihan
Smoke forecasts depend on moisture conditions in the Rockies, drying swamps in Canada, and atmospheric river patterns. The speaker advises using fire.airnow.gov to plan trips while avoiding dry areas in Colorado and Canada.
Ukraine Strikes Russia's Druzhba Oil Pipeline
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil transit aim to cut off funding for Iran and North Korea. This is potentially the most dramatic economic shift seen in the war so far.
A Peace Deal for Azerbaijan and Armenia?
Peter Zeihan
A successfully integrated Azerbaijan means a dead Armenia. The idea of putting 10,000 or 20,000 American troops on a landlocked chunk of territory surrounded by hostile powers with no supply lines, that's how you lose 10,000 or 20,000 troops.
Ukraine Has Found Russia’s BIGGEST Weakness
Paul J. Warburg
Vladimir Putin recently and quite accidentally revealed his greatest weakness and the thing that he is actually the most afraid of. This is definitely a step in the right direction.
American and Indian Relations Sour
Peter Zeihan
Right-wing populist governments prioritize national uniqueness over international cooperation, destabilizing global consensus and increasing conflict potential. Decision-making becomes more hostile as right-wing governments rebel against the existing order to build their own.
Russian Evolutions in the Ukraine War
Peter Zeihan
Russia has fundamentally changed its approach by reviving an industrial strategy to build capacity domestically and overwhelm defenses with decoys. This shift allows Russia to coordinate drone and missile attacks to obliterate traditional front lines.
The Alaska Summit: Putin and Trump Talk War
Peter Zeihan
The US must use forceful military action because diplomatic arguments fail to address Russia's existential drive for border security. Trump will face a flat refusal or lies from Putin and must decide on forceful action.
There’s BIG Chatter of a Coup in Moscow
Paul J. Warburg
Putin's paranoia about a coup is likely causing him to make decisions that will ultimately lead to his downfall. His paranoid actions betray a lack of confidence and suggest he is not winning the war.
Russia is Running Out of Russians
Paul J. Warburg
Russia has essentially already ceased to be a relevant global power, because their demographic crisis has now reached the point of no return. Because they focused so much on old world imperial ideology, their empire will crumble.
Trump Trade Talks: NAFTA Deals Stall
Peter Zeihan
The US must secure trade deals with Canada and Mexico to prevent an economic catastrophe, ensure manufacturing stability, and prepare for a post-China world. It is highly probable a deal will happen because NAFTA 2 was negotiated by the first Trump administration.
Trump Wants a Second Opinion on Labor Statistics
Peter Zeihan
Trump's attack on statisticians destroys U.S. data integrity and mirrors Hugo Chavez's destruction of Venezuela. The administration will continue to function only if advisors stop speaking truth to power.
Why Russia’s Manpower Situation is FAR Worse Than Ukraine’s
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine does not have a manpower shortage because its lower recruitment numbers are offset by Russia's much higher casualty rates. Ukraine will not run out of soldiers as long as it maintains its current defensive tactics and Russia continues its high-casualty offensive strategy.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Artificial Intelligence
Peter Zeihan
AI in war will not happen as expected because the semiconductor supply chain cannot survive de-globalization. The problem will become obvious in the 2050s.
5,000 Years of Military History Predict Russia's Defeat in Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
In every metric that actually matters, Ukraine has the momentum, not Russia. The point is, Ukraine is gaining momentum towards victory at the same moments that Russia is gaining momentum towards ultimate defeat.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: What's Ahead
Peter Zeihan
Drones and new materials science will rapidly replace human soldiers in dangerous roles. We are only at the beginning of radical military applications driven by evolving technology.
Putin Just Accidentally Revealed The Quickest Way to Defeat Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is economically irrelevant because it lacks manufacturing and relies on fair-weather allies for trade. Global nations can now use secondary sanctions to completely isolate and defeat Russia.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Water Wars
Peter Zeihan
Industrial bases and military power require water at the start of development. Uzbekistan will likely invade Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to control remaining water sources.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Recruitment
Peter Zeihan
The military must recruit a diverse population with varied skill sets to adapt to rapid technological changes. The military cannot limit service based on identity because it needs everyone who has an interest of being in the U.S. military.
Trump Trade Talks: Japan Gets a Deal
Peter Zeihan
The headline figure for tariffs going for goods coming from Japan to the United States is now 15%. We are, once again, at the beginning of this process, we are nowhere near the end.
Trump Trade Talks: US-EU Strike a Deal
Peter Zeihan
The headline deal is a memorandum of understanding with no legal binding power. Real negotiations on investment and irritants have not even begun yet.
Russia CAN’T Afford a Second Front — So Why Are They Putting Troops on NATO's Borders?
Paul J. Warburg
Russia uses exaggerated headlines to create fear that causes Europe to hold back military aid to Ukraine, thereby strengthening Russia's position. Europe should ignore fear-based headlines and focus on sending weapons to Ukraine today as the best defense for tomorrow.
Russia is Still Losing the War...and it's not even close
Paul J. Warburg
The cities of Pokrask and Chesovyar are critical for Ukraine to hold as long as possible, but losing them would not rapidly undermine the Ukrainian war effort. Russia's advance is a self-defeating exercise that destroys its own war machine, so viewers should continue to support Ukraine rather than giving in to despair.
Why Trump's Stance on Ukraine Has Changed - Part 2
Peter Zeihan
Russia views this war as its last chance to survive and has more nukes than the US, making it dangerous to leave them unchecked. Trump is now directing policy against Putin after realizing he was being lied to, though the specific outcome remains uncertain.
Russia’s Moral Decay is FAR Worse Than You've Been Told
Paul J. Warburg
The belief that Russia is a morally superior society fighting against Western decadence is a pervasive myth used to justify immoral acts. When Russia says that they are a highly moral society fighting against the evil of the West, there's zero truth to it.
Why Trump's Stance on Ukraine Has Changed - Part 1
Peter Zeihan
The war happened because of how the Russians view their world. This is just the next phase of Putin's plan, of the Russian plan, that, if anything, was written 500 years ago.
Ukraine Just Humiliated Russia in the Worst Possible Way
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine has humiliated Russia by stealing plans for new nuclear submarines, crippling its ability to project power and making its nuclear threats null and void. Ukraine is a good strategic ally who provides unique value by offering intelligence only culturally similar nations can access.
China vs. Mother Nature: Can the Dikes Hold the Rain?
Peter Zeihan
Mass drownings in the capital would shatter political coherence. If conditions worsen, China could become underwater, leading to panic and widespread destruction.
Inflation Ticks Up Under Trump-2
Peter Zeihan
Tariffs and immigration crackdowns are driving inflation through housing, food, transport, and labor costs. The speaker finds it dubious that a coherent second phase exists due to political gridlock.
The Siege of Crimea Has Already Begun…but nobody’s talking about it
Paul J. Warburg
The siege of Crimea has already begun and Russia is willing to abandon the peninsula under sufficient pressure. Ukraine can and will take Crimea when the time is right, destroying whatever remains of Vladimir Putin's legacy.
Why Russia’s Next Big War Might Be With China
Paul J. Warburg
Western leaders misunderstand China by applying their own strategic lens instead of studying Chinese military literature, which emphasizes deception and betrayal. The speaker concludes that there is a high probability China will target the Russian Far East first to secure resources before attempting an invasion of Taiwan.
What It Means to Be a State (France and Palestine)
Peter Zeihan
External recognition of Palestine as a state achieves nothing because it lacks contiguous territory, unified government, defined borders, and economic independence. A solution to the Palestinian problem starts with talks with the Israeli government because Israel holds functional veto power.
July 2025 · 40
A Tsunami Just Crippled Russia's Nuclear Fleet
Paul J. Warburg
A magnitude 8.8 earthquake, followed by a tsunami and volcanic eruption, has destroyed Russia's primary nuclear base in the Pacific. The simultaneous destruction of religious justification and nuclear threats removes Russia's main propaganda tools against the United States.
Keep an Eye on Industrial Construction Spending
Peter Zeihan
Basically, if we still want manufactured goods stuff, we're going to have to make a lot more of it here locally, and that means a lot more factories. If this number goes up, you know, we're moving in the right direction.
The Future of US Monetary Policy
Peter Zeihan
Existing economic models are failing because the balance of inputs has changed. The speaker asserts that monetary authorities must evolve their mandates to address this new reality.
Russia’s military is being totally paralyzed
Paul J. Warburg
There is a battle zone behind the scenes that impacts the war more than the front lines. It is far cheaper for Ukraine to destroy targets than for Russia to repair them.
China's Stance on Iran
Peter Zeihan
China views Iran as a strategic vulnerability rather than an important partner because it lacks critical oil export volume and leverage. Iran is falling off the map strategically and economically, becoming a liability for both China and the United States.
Russia is QUICKLY Descending Into Anarchy
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is descending into anarchy as the collapse of its police forces creates a self-feeding cycle of crime and vigilante justice that threatens the government's survival. The ongoing war against Ukraine makes a successful coup more likely as the government loses internal control and fails to protect its citizens.
Key Economic Indicators to Watch: Retail Sales
Peter Zeihan
Retail sales provide a relatively accurate picture of consumer spending but must be viewed as one factor among many. The statistic is an estimate, somewhat backward looking, and doesn't give the whole picture, but it's better than nothing.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Wars Without People
Peter Zeihan
The combination of less manpower to establish that buffer, combined with an insufficient defensive envelope to provide passive cover for that buffer, means that more and more territory across the planet is simply going to be unlivable because of conflict. Future warfare will focus on denying the opponent's ability to function rather than protecting one's own.
What happens if the war doesn’t end soon?
Paul J. Warburg
Ignoring Ukraine's crisis now will cause catastrophic failure later. The world needs leaders who are long-term strategic thinkers who think through cause and effect, who understand where things can lead, and who take active steps to solve those problems.
A Ukraine-US Deal?
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine retains all Soviet-era scientists while Russia acquired most weapons. Half of Ukraine's industrial plant sits empty due to lack of resources.
What Happens After Trump and Putin Split?
Peter Zeihan
Donald Trump must either dedicate his entire presidency to the Ukraine issue or rebuild a competent government staff to avoid disastrous national security decisions. The current administration's lack of competent staff and reliance on uninformed advisors prevents effective policy implementation.
+1
We Need to Talk About "NATO Expansion"
Paul J. Warburg
Russia invented a lie about NATO expansion to justify its invasion of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin's aggressive actions are the true cause of NATO expansion and war.
Copper Imports Slapped with 50% Tariff
Peter Zeihan
A 50% tariff on copper imports retards the entire production process and ends the economic boom. These policies harm U.S. interests as if a Russian agent were whispering in Trump's ear.
Trump and Putin Split, Ukraine Gets Aid Again
Peter Zeihan
Trump's potential overreaction could trigger erratic military and economic policies that cause long-term problems. These actions will fall under the category of things that you wish for don't always go the way that you were hoping.
The Hidden Reasons Ukraine is CONFIDENT About Recapturing Crimea
Paul J. Warburg
Politicians wrongly claim Crimea is unrecapturable because they lack imagination and ignore how siege and attrition will eventually make it vulnerable. Ukraine can actually win because its strategy of attrition and drone production will eventually force Russia to lose Crimea.
Putin No Longer Trusts His Own Soldiers…that’s worse than you think
Paul J. Warburg
Putin fears his own returning soldiers more than the war itself, driving him to prolong the conflict. Peace is unlikely unless Russia is actually defeated in the war.
The Highs and Lows of Burgum's Energy Strategy
Peter Zeihan
The shift to fossil fuels is driven by economic necessity and a specific geopolitical strategy against Russia. The current foreign policy team lacks competence, making the pragmatic energy strategy even more critical despite its long timeline.
Elon Musk's America Party
Peter Zeihan
The current political landscape is unstable because the Republican Party relies on a single leader while major factions are shifting. The outcome depends on who makes the biggest mistake in this chaotic environment.
Why Russia hasn't actually collapsed...yet
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's survival depends on a finite war chest that was originally meant for post-victory prosperity but is now exhausted. Russia cannot fight forever because its financial reserves are depleting and it lacks the resources to sustain the conflict indefinitely.
Tariff Day Is Here, Again!
Peter Zeihan
The current tariff strategy creates an impossible environment where even the most compliant nations cannot secure deals due to a lack of negotiation staff and shifting deadlines. Business investment has collapsed to levels not seen since COVID because no one knows what the rules are or how to prepare for the next move.
Tariffs Hit Brazil
Peter Zeihan
Threatening Brazil's rule of law is the dumbest thing to do for US interests. The current situation represents a strategic failure despite previous progress.
Ukraine FINALLY Has What it Needs to WIN the War
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine finally has what it needs to win the war because consistent long-term access to critical US weapons has been secured. Ukraine is now in a position where it essentially has guaranteed victory conditions as long as these support mechanisms remain true.
Stop Worrying About the BRICS Alliance
Peter Zeihan
The BRICS alliance is a non-entity because its members are too divided to agree on anything. The administration's entire foreign policy depends on the ability to impose tariffs, which Congress can block.
Here's Why Inflation Isn't a Solution
Peter Zeihan
Inflation reduces debt value but also erodes the worth of all other assets and income. The speaker votes against using inflation as a solution because it damages all asset classes.
"Made in China" Becomes "Made in Vietnam"
Peter Zeihan
Vietnam offers a viable manufacturing alternative to China but faces administrative hurdles if targeted with specific tariffs. The speaker gives Vietnam an A for effort and a D for approach.
Russia is Trapped in Their War…and the implications are terrifying
Paul J. Warburg
Leaders incapable of admitting defeat will gamble away their people's resources and lives. The war will not end until Russia is actually defeated and Vladimir Putin is out of power.
Why Do the Democrats Keep Losing Ground?
Peter Zeihan
The Democratic Party probably has no future because its core pillars are fracturing. Democrats cannot win any big election unless there's something else very big in play.
Xi Purges Chinese Military of Corruption…Kinda
Peter Zeihan
General Miao was arrested and fired from the Central Military Commission for corruption. Xi Jinping's purge targets political control rather than just corruption since 2012.
STOP Believing This LIE About Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is not the Soviet Union. It's much worse.
Rebuilding the American Industrial Base, Rare Earths Edition
Peter Zeihan
The United States must rebuild its industrial base to avoid collapse from Chinese leverage. The speaker concludes that rebuilding is essential because the current administration lacks the grip on core issues needed for the next world.
The War in Ukraine Has ALREADY Completely Changed Humanity’s Future...but no one's talking about it
Paul J. Warburg
The evolution of drone warfare shifts military advantage from resource stockpiles to data, making Ukraine the new strategic superpower. The US must trade conventional weapons for Ukrainian drone data to maintain its future superpower status.
Is the United States FINALLY Changing Course on Ukraine?
Paul J. Warburg
The United States is using Ukraine's vulnerability to negotiate better terms and profit from arms sales rather than acting out of moral obligation. This transactional approach is dangerous because it means alliances will only exist as long as the US benefits financially.
The Art of Trump’s Trade Deal
Peter Zeihan
Robert Lighthizer declined the trade role because the administration lacks the staff to negotiate hundreds of deals. The current stalled negotiations are due to the lack of staff in Washington rather than incompetence.
Why Modern Drones Scare Me FAR More Than Nukes Do
Paul J. Warburg
Western wishful thinking and failure to help Ukraine adequately allowed this terrifying technology to become a reality. Humanity must embrace this terrifying reality and take steps aligned with it rather than relying on fear or wishful thinking.
Finally, a Productive NATO Summit
Peter Zeihan
Europeans must manage Donald Trump by flattering him to secure necessary defense commitments. If Europeans figure out how to play the game, the Russians are in a pickle.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Ditching Artillery
Peter Zeihan
Artillery is incredibly vulnerable because drones cost less than shells and acoustic detection allows counter-battery fire before impact. The rules of war are changing every week, making current weapon systems obsolete for future conflicts.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: USS Nimitz
Peter Zeihan
The U.S. cannot replace its alliance network with new technology because losing allies makes power projection prohibitively expensive. The United States will be forced to use older carriers as expensive mobile bases instead of retiring them.
Something is Going DEEPLY Wrong in Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Putin is admitting to concessions because he fears his people and realizes the war effort is already coming to an end. The outcome depends on whether Ukraine can continue to hold on until those cracks have their ultimate effect.
The US Strikes Iran's Nuclear Facilities
Peter Zeihan
There is never going to be a deal with Iran because they have never signed and implemented a security deal with anyone. The situation remains in a holding pattern where weapons are thrown but no fundamental change in the relationship occurs.
History Tells Us How the Ukraine War Could End (it's worse than you think)
Paul J. Warburg
We must stop assuming aggressors are reasonable and force them to collapse to end the war. History proves that avoiding hard decisions now leads to catastrophic failure later.
June 2025 · 29
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Naval Advances
Peter Zeihan
Conventional naval warfare within 500 miles of the coast is obsolete, forcing a global rethink of maritime strategy. The era of easy coastal dominance is over, requiring nations to develop entirely new concepts for naval power.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Europe's Future
Peter Zeihan
Europe must abandon reliance on American military hardware and adopt drone technology to survive Russian aggression. Necessity is forcing Europe to operate under new constraints that require adopting unproven technologies like drones.
The Hidden Crisis Destroying Russia’s Army
Paul J. Warburg
Wars fought for profit or power cannot rely on fabricated patriotism to achieve victory. Russia's military failures stem from its motivation being profit rather than existential reasons, making victory impossible.
Israel’s Uncertain Endgame in Iran
Peter Zeihan
If there is going to be a meaningful regime change, if Iran is going to enter a fundamentally different governing age, it's going to have to be a revolution. It is unclear from my point of view if Donald Trump is falling for it yet.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Weapons Sales
Peter Zeihan
American weapon sales are driven by U.S. geographic constraints, but recent political shifts have broken the security guarantees Europeans relied on. Europeans are now debating whether and how to stop buying American weapon systems.
Russia’s Economic Crisis is Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's economy is extremely weak because it is built on an extremely shaky foundation. Russia has self-inflicted all of these problems by choosing war over working its own field.
What is Israel's Victory Condition in Iran?
Peter Zeihan
Israel cannot destroy Iran's nuclear program but aims to delay it while potentially destabilizing its economy. Attacking oil refineries seems feasible to set back Iran more generally.
Oil Markets Aren't Worried About Iran
Peter Zeihan
The United States shale revolution means the Middle East doesn't matter nearly as much as it used to. Even if Iran attempts a land invasion of Saudi Arabia, the operation would be hugely costly or lead to the end of the Iranian government.
Why the United States is Going to War With Iran
Paul J. Warburg
The United States is now at war with Iran because Israel could not destroy deep underground targets without US specialized bombs, making intervention almost certain. While the reasons may be legitimate, the conflict poses an economic risk to global trade rather than a threat of World War III.
Watch This Number for Recession Indicators
Peter Zeihan
A policy recession caused by crazy decision-making in Washington will be revealed in July when consumption overwhelms inventories. The speaker warns that rising first-time unemployment claims within the revised lower range signal an imminent recession.
Israel Launches Attack on Iranian Nuclear Sites
Peter Zeihan
Iran lacks the conventional military strength and robust defenses to effectively respond to Israel's nuclear-focused campaign. Iran faces a critical decision where using its remaining missiles may be its last shot with no guarantee of success.
Trump Calls in the Marines for California's Protests
Peter Zeihan
Trump is deliberately instigating an issue in California to weaken its powerful economy. Putting the military in a position for law enforcement creates an awkward and potentially ugly situation for everybody.
Still think Russia is winning the war? WATCH THIS
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine will defeat Russia if given enough time and support needed to accomplish that difficult but achievable objective. Giving Ukraine the ability to strategically and tactically defeat Russia today or within the next couple of months or even the next couple of years, that will actually be the most peaceful outcome in the end.
The Revolution in Military Affairs: Series Intro
Peter Zeihan
The human race is about to experience a higher form of war. Countries must decide what they want and how big a technological jump they are willing to take.
Musk Pulls the Carpet Out from Under DOGE
Peter Zeihan
There is no version of deficit control in the United States that is not centered on defense, social security, Medicare, and Medicaid. If you're not willing to take a very, very deep gouge into those four programs, not one of them, all of them, we are not going to get anywhere near a balanced budget.
Is Russia Preparing to Attack Sweden?
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is likely planning a long-term test of NATO unity rather than an immediate invasion. The public should recognize these strategies as annoying rather than scary and continue supporting Ukraine.
Trouble in MAGA Paradise
Peter Zeihan
The conflict between Musk and Trump exposes the fragility of US technological dominance and legislative stability. Trump has burned his political capital and alienated allies, leaving his executive actions vulnerable to immediate reversal.
Should the US Military Invade Mexico?
Peter Zeihan
There is no sensible military option for the United States to invade Mexico because all strategies either fail or cause catastrophic economic damage. The only viable solution is to stop using fentanyl and cocaine rather than pursuing military action.
I Have Some Difficult News to Share
Paul J. Warburg
My son was born with a rare heart condition and severe arm disabilities that nearly killed him. I must return to work soon to support my son's care and recovery.
The Demographic Crisis in Russia
Peter Zeihan
Russia faces a severe demographic crisis driven by historical industrialization, drug addiction, economic despair, and massive war losses. The true extent of the population collapse will soon become visible as the younger generation runs out of men to fight.
Finally, Some Clarity on US-China Relations
Peter Zeihan
Two old guys driven by ideology who don't think the rules apply to them, who have blinded themselves to information, are going to have a talk about what's going to happen for the rest of us. The upcoming conversation between these two leaders will be consequential one way or another.
What's Up with the Middle East: Saudi Oil Slips
Peter Zeihan
Saudi Arabia must resort to terror attacks to drive rivals offline because the US no longer needs its oil. Saudi Arabia will face significant policy change as it becomes apparent to them that the American relationship is over.
Coping Mechanisms 101: The "TACO" Trade
Peter Zeihan
The United States faces an institutional crisis because the administration makes trade policy based on whim rather than data or legal authority. Expect nothing but more confusion as everyone tries to figure out what is happening while the floor keeps shifting under all of us.
Ukraine Strikes Russian Strategic Bombers
Peter Zeihan
Ukraine proved that allies can deliver a blow to an enemy targeting the American homeland. The future depends on whether the administration realizes this achievement and makes policy around it.
What's Up with the Middle East: Syrian Dysfunction
Peter Zeihan
Syria will not form a stable government because external powers prefer chaos over consolidation. Anarchy is the best outcome Syria will achieve.
What's Up with the Middle East: Turkish Dominance
Peter Zeihan
The demographic situation for both the Russians, Ukrainians, and the Europeans is terminal. All we know for sure is Edarwan is committed to being the big man when everything breaks.
What's Up In the Middle East: Israel's Future
Peter Zeihan
The Israelis are going to have to figure out how to function in a world where the United States just really doesn't care about the Middle East now. They're too small they're too dependent on energy imports they're too independent on food imports they're too dependent on technology imports but there are partners out there that might work.
The Future of Tourism: Part 2
Peter Zeihan
Europe faces demographic collapse and Russian expansion while the Middle East relies on fragile oil systems that require new security guarantors. Turkey will become one of the fastest-growing, most successful, most powerful countries in the world for decades to come.
The Future of Tourism: Part 1
Peter Zeihan
Travelers must prioritize long-term stability over beauty because demographics and deglobalization are smashing the old model. Many countries people like to think they want to visit aren't going to be options for much longer.
May 2025 · 31
America’s Processing Crisis: Racing China's Decline
Peter Zeihan
The United States faces a critical reindustrialization crisis because it lacks domestic processing capacity while relying on subsidized Chinese infrastructure that is now collapsing. The US must rebuild local processing capacity immediately or face a future with no materials to work from.
The Future of Piracy (ARRRGH!)
Peter Zeihan
Nations dependent on sea transport will fight pirates, while self-sufficient nations may support them. India will likely become a hybrid power supporting piracy to its east while opposing it to its west.
Did Trump Just Wreck US-India Relations?
Peter Zeihan
The Trump administration wrecked US-India relations by brokering a ceasefire without consulting India, violating its principle of bilateral negotiations. Thirty years of progress toward a strategic partnership with India has been unwound by this unilateral action.
Iran Snuggles Up with the Houthis in Yemen
Peter Zeihan
The US cannot subdue Yemen militarily and must negotiate with Iran instead. The US must accept a truce and engage in real talks with Iran.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: How Do You Lose 100 Million People?
Peter Zeihan
China lost track of its population due to statistical fraud at the local level, leading to a massive undercount of births and an overestimation of the current workforce. The idea that a government can function if it blinds itself is a bit of a stretch.
Trump's New Plan for the Economy is Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
Trump's economic policies represent a dangerous shift toward central planning that contradicts Republican principles and risks catastrophic failure. The American people must recognize this overstep of authority and pay for the taxes they voted on to decide if this is the direction they want.
Why We Can’t Trust the Media Anymore
Paul J. Warburg
Journalists are incentivized to prioritize drama over honesty because that is what gets rewarded. Legacy media will eventually die, but the future risks disinformation spreading without accountability as viewers turn to independent sources optimized by algorithms.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Xi's Power Chokehold
Peter Zeihan
The Chinese system is over-centralized and disconnected from reality, leading to catastrophic collapse. Assets in China must be removed immediately as the timeline for stability shortens.
How Germany is Becoming Russia's Worst Nightmare
Paul J. Warburg
Germany had now reached a turning point and that Germany would be investing in becoming the most capable conventional military in all of Europe. And when Germany begins to move away from its traditionally fiscally conservative stance to do this, it shows you that Germany fully understands the threat that the world faces and they fully understand that that threat is real.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: China's First Domino
Peter Zeihan
The Chinese system is cracking apart under strain, forcing the US into an impossible industrialization pulse that will lead to stagnation. The disconnect caused by ideology makes it impossible to see the edge we are pushing closer to.
Aging Populations and Which Countries Look the Worst
Peter Zeihan
Italy, China, and Korea face civilization crashing events due to rapid aging without adaptation. Korea might find a path out if any country can figure out how to adapt.
Debunking the Most Dangerous Myth About NATO
Paul J. Warburg
The argument that the US should stop defending Europe because they have not paid their share ignores the history of a system the US created to benefit itself. It is morally indefensible for the United States to back down now when things are getting hard after collecting all the benefits of the system.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: The “Deal" With the Chinese
Peter Zeihan
Everything about the Chinese system is terminal. This does give them a little bit more bandwidth and allows them to stall the end perhaps a little bit more.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Chinese Edition Intro
Peter Zeihan
There was no way that the People's Republic of China was going to survive as a unified government. And that is before Donald Trump arrived.
VIDEO REPOST - Moody's Downgraded the Debt, So Let's Recap
Peter Zeihan
The United States is the largest economy in the world. We are the safe haven for currency.
The Question of Leadership…And Management
Peter Zeihan
Three world leaders are actively destroying their states' ability to function. Xi will destroy China, while Trump's actions may teach the US what to do and not do with its government.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: American Brands
Peter Zeihan
Trump tariffs will cause American companies to vanish or go bankrupt, leading to long-term product shortages and high inflation. We can recover from this faster if we have Mexico and Canada and our other trading partners involved.
The Russians Continue Stirring the Romanian Pot
Peter Zeihan
Russia must conquer Romania to secure its southern flank and complete its domination of the Eurasian steppe. The fall of Romania would fundamentally change the geopolitical landscape by isolating Turkey and Greece from the rest of the alliance.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Agriculture
Peter Zeihan
Over the course of the next three or four years we're looking at somewhere between a quarter and a third of U.S. producers just going out of business because of the trade war. So as food becomes more approachable in the near term, you know it's going to become much more difficult in the long term.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: The Fed
Peter Zeihan
Gutting the independence of the Federal Reserve will only make a coming recession deeper and darker. Expect Trump to slam his head into the Fed and then go to Congress to change the charter.
The Night the Lights Went Out in Geor- er, Spain
Peter Zeihan
High reliance on renewable energy without sufficient fossil fuel backup creates unstable grids vulnerable to cascading failures. None of these solutions are great, but that is where the world currently stands regarding grid stability.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Recession Time
Peter Zeihan
Basically, we're looking at a secular slowdown in economic growth in almost every sector at the same time. And when that happened, globalization was going to crash, but the tariffs are making it crash now harder and in a way that is causing a lot of heartbreak for Americans.
A Fresh Chance for Breakdown in South Asia - TEASER
Peter Zeihan
A significant terror attack occurred on Indian territory recently. This event is comparable to India's 9-11 due to its political impact.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Housing Problems
Peter Zeihan
The housing sector is the American industry most damaged by mid- and long-term trends combining labor shortages, tariffs, financing cuts, and insurance collapse. The housing sector is looking to be the sector that is potentially most damaged by the mid- and long-term trends that are coming together.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Steel and Aluminum
Peter Zeihan
We've raised the cost of imported steel and aluminum, but we have not first built out the capacity of the U.S. economy to smelt or foundry more of the stuff itself. Everything is now moving more slowly at a higher expense at a time we just need more.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Finance
Peter Zeihan
The combination of retiring baby boomers and unpredictable US policies is causing a massive reduction in global capital supply, which drastically increases borrowing costs. These factors combine to slow economic growth across the entire American economic space.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Port Fees
Peter Zeihan
The port fees and tariffs will increase costs because the administration failed to build necessary ships first. We must pay more for everything because there is no alternative way to reindustrialize yet.
Will New Zealand Dive or Thrive?
Peter Zeihan
New Zealand must adapt its agriculture and align with either the United States or Southeast Asia to thrive. The Kiwis have shown time and time again that change is something that they can handle.
A Concerning Update to the Russian Reach Series
Peter Zeihan
The Trump administration has created a security crisis by replacing independent oversight with officials who spread Russian propaganda. The speaker leaves everyone to their own recognizance as to what is going to happen next.
The REAL Reason Americans Feel So Poor (even when they aren’t)
Paul J. Warburg
Americans feel poor because they are objectively poorer than their parents. Individuals can find happiness by comparing themselves to those with less rather than the wealthy elite.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: The Green Transition Is Over
Peter Zeihan
Three factors have destroyed the economics of the green transition in the United States. The green transition will take a beat for at least two years due to manufacturing gaps.
April 2025 · 34
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Government Debt
Peter Zeihan
The bigger problem is whether or not the United States is risking losing its position as the global currency, the global store of value, and the currency of first and last resort. Don't feel great about it.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: What Is Hegseth Doing?
Peter Zeihan
Hegseth is destroying America's capacity to fight current and future wars through incompetence and felony-level negligence. The US faces a long, painful, drawn-out crash of national security management under this incompetent leadership.
Russia’s Population Collapse is Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's state of decline is still going to continue regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine. When we are having social problems within our own countries, we need to be very alert and very careful that politicians don't come in and start directing our attention towards external opponents.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Corruption
Peter Zeihan
The current system forces American importers and businesses to bribe the people who do spot checks. Arbitrary policies imposed by tweet will cause an erosion of rule of law throughout the corporate world.
Why There's No Fentanyl in Easter Eggs This Year
Peter Zeihan
Industrial-scale fentanyl production by La Familia Michoacán at a distant Mexican port makes it immune to standard enforcement. Targeting the specific port city offers a better chance than general door-to-door searches.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Bye-Bye De Minimis
Peter Zeihan
The de minimis loophole ends on May 2nd with new tariffs that will kill most small-package shipping and significantly disrupt the current fentanyl supply chain. This policy is a win because it finally addresses a real problem, even though it comes at an economic cost.
The Death Spiral That Can Kill Any Democracy (we’re in one now)
Paul J. Warburg
The force that creates democracy also leads to its own destruction if leaders follow basest emotions instead of leading with logic and education. Society can avoid destruction by lifting the will of the people back up to a higher level and choosing leaders who challenge us respectfully.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Don't Expect Many Trade Deals
Peter Zeihan
The United States isn't ready to have these talks because it is organizationally unprepared and operates with erratic policies. Real trade talks cannot begin until the erratic policy environment settles down.
This Is The Crisis China Has Been Waiting For
Paul J. Warburg
Trade wars with China create new economic holes that could sink the U.S. economy, which is currently more prosperous than any other system. The U.S. has been good for the world and itself, but current adversarial policies threaten this prosperity.
The Fire Hose of Chaos: Wait, The Recession Is Already Here?
Peter Zeihan
The United States is already in a completely unnecessary recession caused by erratic policies and tariffs. The recession will start formally in the second quarter, certainly in the third, and last a lot longer than it would have ever needed to.
Should the US Stay in the Middle East?
Peter Zeihan
The primary reason for US involvement was to maintain an alliance against the Soviet Union, not just oil. Every time we do truly nationalist and really do ostrich down, something happens in the Eastern Hemisphere that draws us back in in a very ugly way that costs us hundreds of thousands of lives.
I Hope You Didn't Want to Buy a Home
Peter Zeihan
Housing is just expensive and only going to get more so because we cannot build it fast enough. If you are trying to get going, this is awful.
Is Trump Playing 4D Chess?
Peter Zeihan
The proposed strategy to box in China through an allied coalition is unlikely to succeed due to administrative dysfunction and flawed tariff tactics. The world faces a recessionary, stagflationary environment until this situation is resolved one way or another.
Of Tariffs, Manufacturing and PSAs
Peter Zeihan
Meaningful American manufacturing will not occur within two years due to complex supply chains and policy uncertainty. Consumers must buy electronics with existing U.S. inventory immediately to avoid massive tariff markups on new imports.
Stopping Trump's Tariffs with A New Trade Act
Peter Zeihan
The only body that matters when it comes to hemming in a president who's gone off the rails is the Senate. The champion of rule of law in the Senate has been roused and things are starting to move.
How Trump's Trade Wars Could Cause a Real War
Paul J. Warburg
Trade wars often quickly lead to actual shooting wars because they max out an escalation ladder where no further economic damage can be inflicted without resorting to violence. The United States might win, but the lack of a clear victory condition makes the path uncertain and potentially dangerous.
Tariff Spotlight: Vietnam
Peter Zeihan
The Trump administration's tariff on Vietnam is based on manufactured data and incompetent advisors, destroying a vital supply chain partnership. The tariffs will cause extreme pain and undo years of successful efforts to diversify supply chains away from China.
Spain's Economy Is Booming
Peter Zeihan
Spain's current economic boom is a temporary one-shot deal dependent on immigration that will eventually require a new path. Luckily, there is a potential answer on deck.
India Complicates the US Fentanyl Crisis
Peter Zeihan
The only real way to get fentanyl under control would be to address the consumption side of the equation. Addressing consumption is the solution because current supply-side strategies are flawed and ineffective.
America Just Shattered 80 Years of Global Progress
Paul J. Warburg
The U.S. has permanently lost its global trade position because whiplash policies break trust and cause lasting economic damage. The U.S. will suffer shrinking domestic markets because companies lose profits and employment without receiving tariff benefits.
Turkey Takes a Break from Democracy
Peter Zeihan
Turkey is no longer a democracy. Erwan has destroyed that system over the last 25 years.
Russia Can't Survive the Oil Price Crash
Paul J. Warburg
Russia faces collapse similar to the Soviet Union due to falling energy prices and reduced profits. Cutting off Russian energy would rapidly accelerate the decline of the Russian state.
The Tariffs Stalk at Midnight + LIVE Q&A Starts Soon!
Peter Zeihan
The new tariff policies will cause a significantly worse recession than previously predicted. We are just getting started on this dislocation.
The Death of US-China Trade
Peter Zeihan
The largest bilateral economic relationship in human history is for all intents and purposes over now. This is going to go until something breaks, specifically the current economic expansion in the United States and the Chinese system as a whole.
Debunking the Biggest ‘Success’ Story of Trump’s Tariffs
Paul J. Warburg
Confusing correlation with causation is a common mistake used to win arguments without being correct. TSMC moves to the U.S. due to fear of Chinese attacks on Taiwan, not because tariffs make sense financially.
Trump’s Tariffs: Reciprocal Edition + Live Q&A
Peter Zeihan
The new tariffs will wreck the relationship with Southeast Asia and cause a year-long recession. We are easily looking at a recession that is going to last a year.
Why I'm Okay with Some of the Secondary Tariffs
Peter Zeihan
Globalization is gone. It's not coming back.
The Roman Empire Reveals How Russia Will Collapse
Paul J. Warburg
The better that Russia looks like Rome, it actually shows that they are accelerating the path towards their own collapse. Putin is keeping this war going, even though it's bad for Russia, because for him personally, it is key to his survival.
You Mess with the Don, You Get the Tariffs
Peter Zeihan
Secondary tariffs on crude oil buyers could force China out of the electronics supply chain. We are definitely moving into a deglobalized world and need different tools than we have used for eighty years.
What you’re not being told about the cost of the Ukraine War
Paul J. Warburg
The war in Ukraine is not so expensive that the United States cannot afford to continue supporting Ukraine. It's actually so affordable that from one perspective, we can't afford not to support them.
Signalgate. It's Worse Than You Think.
Peter Zeihan
The Trump administration's national security team is moronic because it lacks competence due to firing knowledgeable staff and surrounding itself with loyalists. The administration is making policy on behalf of all of us with people who literally have no idea how to keep information secure.
4:17
Auto Tariffs and the Art of Routine Vehicle Maintenance
Peter Zeihan
The new tariff policy will drive up vehicle costs significantly. The cumulative effect of these tariffs could easily see automobile costs going up by $10,000.
4:27
Half A Million Immigrants Get the Boot
Peter Zeihan
Rescinding legal status for half a million immigrants worsens the labor shortage and encourages future illegal migration. The next wave will definitely cross illegally and form an underclass in American society.
The Collapse of America’s Arms Industry Has Already Begun
Paul J. Warburg
The abrupt cessation of U.S. military aid has caused nations to seek alternatives, leading to a wholesale move away from U.S. technologies and a diminishing overall of America's global power. The United States is losing its influence because it sacrificed annual revenues two and a half times larger than the total of what they have sent to Ukraine.
March 2025 · 11
How Trump’s Ukraine Plan Makes Nuclear War MORE Likely
Paul J. Warburg
Supporting Ukraine and opposing Russia actually makes nuclear war less likely than the opposite. By not supporting Ukraine, we are making nuclear warfare either now or in the future more and more likely every single day.
Why Trump CAN'T Stop Russia's Economic Collapse
Paul J. Warburg
Removing US sanctions would be irrelevant because Europe controls trade routes, Ukraine can stop exports, and Russia's economy is already collapsing from internal failures. Donald Trump will not remove sanctions because it would be unpopular, offer no benefit, and undermine his goal of increasing US energy revenues.
The EU FINALLY Called Putin’s Bluff
Paul J. Warburg
A Ukrainian victory over Russia is already assured if defensive warfare and economic warfare are pursued consistently for a long term. The European Union is finally taking steps to accelerate support, denying Putin's ceasefire demands while securing Ukraine's path to victory.
Why did Russia just bomb…itself?
Paul J. Warburg
Russia does not want peace and will only accept it when forced, making defense the only path to ending the war. The world must recognize this reality and support Ukraine's defense to force Russia into accepting peace.
Why is Trump STILL Trying to Scam Ukraine?
Paul J. Warburg
The current peace negotiations are a charade where the U.S. inserts self-serving demands like energy ownership before offering any real help. Ukraine should not trust verbal guarantees but might receive significant support if the U.S. sees a direct profit in helping it.
Trump’s Trade Wars Are Inconsistent With Trump’s Actual Wars
Paul J. Warburg
The United States seems to be very willing to take military action against small targets that they know they can defeat. If Trump really believes in what he is doing with the Houthis, he should apply the same logic to helping Ukraine against Russia.
Why Elon Musk CAN’T Shut Down Ukraine’s Starlink
Paul J. Warburg
Elon Musk will not cut off Starlink access because doing so would damage his business interests more than any potential gain from aligning with Russia. Even if Starlink were removed, Ukraine has multiple alternative communication methods available, including other satellite providers, high-altitude balloons, government networks, and fiber optic cables.
Why is America Intentionally Destroying its Global Influence?
Paul J. Warburg
America is intentionally destroying its global influence by refusing to pay the costs of protection and trade. The US must change its narrative and embrace strategies that uphold global trust to avoid self-destruction.
What everyone is missing about Ukraine’s ceasefire proposal
Paul J. Warburg
A proposed ceasefire is a lose-lose dilemma for Russia designed to expose their desperation or weakness. The proposal is not genuine peace but a political maneuver that benefits Ukraine's reputation regardless of Russia's choice.
Can Ukraine Survive Without U.S. Aid?
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine will not capitulate despite the pause in U.S. aid because Europe can fill critical gaps and the likelihood of active U.S. support for Russia is extremely low. The situation is bad but not as bad as it could be, with frozen battle lines likely persisting until European spending bills produce weapons for Ukraine.
What everyone missed about Trump & Zelenskyy’s fight
Paul J. Warburg
The interaction is described as one of the biggest failures in diplomacy in history. The conversation began cordially but disintegrated halfway through when Zelensky was interrupted.
+1
February 2025 · 12
Why is North Korea Already Sending More Troops to Ukraine?
Paul J. Warburg
North Korea sending additional troops reveals a logical inconsistency in Russia's approach to escalation. The small troop shipment shows both Russia and North Korea are in a far more desperate position than estimated.
Trump’s Ukraine 'Minerals' Deal Could Be the Most Corrupt Thing I've Ever Seen
Paul J. Warburg
The US-Ukraine deal is primarily a reconstruction agreement focused on controlling funds for rebuilding rather than securing rare earth metals. Despite significant corruption risks and hypocrisy, the deal remains optimistic because it ensures immediate support for Ukrainian people.
Why Trump’s Mexico Tariffs Will Make the Border Crisis Even Worse
Paul J. Warburg
Tariffs will not help solve the problem of illegal immigration on the Mexican border, even if they do result in additional Mexican troops being placed there. The solution to this problem is to be a champion for the economic development of the entire world.
Did Trump Just Betray Ukraine?
Paul J. Warburg
Trump is using a bulldozing negotiation tactic to extract rare earth metals from Ukraine, creating conditions to blame them if the deal fails. Ultimately, we have to come down on the side of Ukraine because these rare earth metals are going to help in our fight against China when it comes to AI and building chips and things like that.
Russia’s Oil Industry is Dying Faster Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is in a catch-22 where it needs oil money to repair frozen infrastructure, but international support and aid are now unavailable. Russia requires international support to escape its current situation, but players who supported it previously are no longer willing to do so.
The Massive Hole in Trump's Tariff Plan (that no one is talking about)
Paul J. Warburg
Tariffs fail because they create artificial advantages that cannot incentivize long-term investment in democratic systems with frequent leadership changes. While government subsidies or long-term contracts are proven solutions, the public often chooses tariffs due to emotional reactions against government enrichment.
What everyone is getting wrong about Trump’s Ukraine peace talks
Paul J. Warburg
Peace in Ukraine is a secondary goal for Donald Trump, who seeks to secure access to Ukraine's rare earth metals. The US will likely favor Ukraine to secure the deal, but a permanent peace requires NATO membership and US troops on the ground.
The Truth About Siberia that Russia Wants to Hide
Paul J. Warburg
China may be using its focus on Taiwan as a cover to secretly plan an invasion of Russia's historical lands in Siberia. Russia has put itself in a massive quandary by invading Ukraine and failing.
Why Russia Can NEVER Use a Nuclear Weapon
Paul J. Warburg
Russia cannot effectively use nuclear weapons because actual use guarantees destruction and internal fail-safes prevent a single leader from ordering them. Ignoring Russian nuclear threats creates a more dangerous world by signaling that dictators can use nukes without checks.
Could Russia Actually Lose Kaliningrad?
Paul J. Warburg
Kaliningrad's growing cultural disconnect and reduced strategic value make secession more likely despite Moscow's fears. If Kaliningrad separates, it is likely to become an independent Baltic state focused on technology.
Russia is Caught in an Unemployment ‘Death Spiral’
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's wage growth is inherently unsustainable, and therefore, actually, very bad news for the average Russian. In the long term, unemployment will probably skyrocket.
Russia’s Banks Are Literally Running Out of Money
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is funding its war by forcing banks to lend money that will never be repaid, creating a financial trap. Putin realizes Russia's position is hopeless no matter what, so he is trying to win the war no matter the cost.
January 2025 · 7
The REAL Reason Putin is So Paranoid Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Assassinating Vladimir Putin risks creating a worse global conflict without guaranteeing peace for Ukraine. Ending the war requires courageous political leadership rather than assassination attempts.
Let's Talk About Why Russia Sends Teenagers to War
Paul J. Warburg
Analyzing differences in recruitment reveals a clear picture of each nation's moral standing. Ukraine is more morally upright than Russia and not as desperate as people often make them out to be.
Want to know how the world REALLY works? Start with these 5 books.
Paul J. Warburg
Reading books informs worldview and connects ideas. The speaker recommends five specific books to understand global dynamics.
The TRUTH About Russia's Shadow Fleet That Most People Miss
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine and the West are deliberately keeping Russian energy on the market through a price cap to prevent global instability and maintain political support. The strategy aims to weaken Russia long-term by strengthening allies like India while avoiding actions that could destabilize the region or lose Western backing.
The Only REAL Way to Stop the War in Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
Diplomacy cannot ultimately end the war in Ukraine because it does not resolve the severe disagreement forcing combat between the two nations. The only way to defeat Russia is to do just that: to defeat Russia.
Russia is Trying to Pull Transnistria Into the War (again)
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is manufacturing a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria to pull the region into its war against Ukraine or destabilize Moldova. Russia uses history as a guide because it repeats the same playbook of destabilization over former Soviet territories.
Russia’s Pipeline Problem is Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
Russia lost its leverage over Moldova and Transnistria when it cut off gas supplies. The West is winning in every important way, even if that victory isn't immediately apparent.
December 2024 · 2
What everyone is missing about Russia's arms industry collapse
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has backfired by causing a global shift away from Russian arms trade toward Ukrainian drone technology. If Ukraine emerges as the world's top supplier of drone technology, there are potentially unforeseen advantages where they could still be a big global player.
What everyone is getting wrong about Trump’s trade war
Paul J. Warburg
Tariffs provide a theoretical but unproven benefit in exchange for a well-cited catastrophic risk. It is a losing prospect to focus on the industries of yesterday rather than focusing on the strengths of what you can do as a country tomorrow.
November 2024 · 5
What you’re not being told about U.S. missiles striking Russia
Paul J. Warburg
The fear that Biden intentionally escalated the war to start World War III is false. Biden allowed strikes now to give Ukraine maximum advantage before a new administration takes over.
What everyone is getting wrong about Russia's economy
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is running out of money because its war chest was frozen and the war lasted too long. Western nations must maintain financial pressure so the Putin regime faces consequences.
The U.S. Finally Unlocked Long Range Weapons for Ukraine - Here’s how it will change the war
Paul J. Warburg
The U.S. unlocking long-range weapons for Ukraine removes Russia's only remaining tactical advantage and creates a low-risk window for escalation before the new president takes office. The timing allows Ukraine to disrupt Russian troop massing while minimizing escalation risk, and it encourages other major nations to contribute their resources.
What you’re not being told about Trump and Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
The prevailing theory that Trump can end the war by leveraging US aid is flawed because Ukraine has already proven it can fight without significant US assistance. Ukraine will not back down just because aid decreases, and US withdrawal might actually unlock options for a Ukrainian victory.
The hidden move that proves Putin's getting desperate
Paul J. Warburg
Putin cares deeply about public opinion because he fears his own people might overthrow him if they suffer too much. Just because Putin doesn't need his people's vote doesn't mean he doesn't fear what they think.
October 2024 · 11
Russia's Attrition Problem is Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
The war in Ukraine at its core is a war of attrition where the side that can outlast the other wins. Russia is currently losing the war from a nutritional standpoint and cannot sustain fighting much longer than about a year after current pushes.
How the West Can GUARANTEE a Ukrainian Victory Over Russia
Paul J. Warburg
The West can guarantee a Ukrainian victory over Russia if it continues to provide sufficient support. We must prove we are people of our word by continuing the fight because Ukraine gave up its nuclear missiles in exchange for security guarantees.
Russia is losing the drone war. Here’s why that matters.
Paul J. Warburg
Ukrainian drone strikes weaken Russia's nuclear credibility and threaten its defense production. We should probably all be paying a lot more attention to Ukrainian drone strikes.
What you're not being told about Russia's economy
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's economy is fundamentally weak because it must print money to cover a deficit, causing inflation and devaluing the ruble. Long story short, Russia is running out of money.
What Everyone is Getting Wrong About North Korean Soldiers in Ukraine
Paul J. Warburg
North Korea sends soldiers to gain resources and show commitment, not to learn combat tactics. People must understand how North Korean society is different from Western society to call Putin's bluff.
Russia’s Energy Empire is About to Collapse - Permanently
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's only real options for its future energy industry are to turn for foreign help to nations like China, becoming an energy vassal in exchange for subsidized prices. I don't personally see another way out of this for Russia, but maybe you do.
Russia's Demographic Crisis is a Ticking Time Bomb
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's demographic crisis is a ticking time bomb caused by collapsing population and low birth rates. Russia has already lost and is continuing to lose in absolute terms due to this worsening demographic crisis.
North Korean Troops in Ukraine are Worse Than You Think
Paul J. Warburg
North Korea entering the war is not a sign of Russia's geopolitical strength, but actually a sign of Russia's immense geopolitical weakness. Expect this to be a whole big nothing burger.
Is Ukraine About to Get Nuclear Weapons Again?
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine faces an existential threat that makes nuclear rearmament a theoretical necessity if NATO membership fails. While immediate development seems unlikely, the strategic calculus shifts as Russia alters its doctrine.
Why Sweden isn’t afraid of Russia…and what we can learn from them
Paul J. Warburg
The US fears Russian retaliation more than nearby nations like Sweden, causing it to delay permission for Ukraine to strike Russian targets. The US should consider granting Ukraine permission to use weapons against Russian territory to prevent further loss of life and strategic advantage.
Vladimir Putin Killed My Cousin
Paul J. Warburg
An American soldier with deep respect for Russian culture died fighting against Vladimir Putin after witnessing war crimes. There are people on every side of the political fence in America who support Ukraine.
July 2024 · 1
How We KNOW We're On the Right Side of History
Paul J. Warburg
You can know with certainty that you are on the right side of history by observing whether nations use force to silence people or rely on facts. Nations that use weapons and chains to silence their people are never in the right.
June 2024 · 6
Why Mexico Might be the Key to the World's Next War
Paul J. Warburg
The United States is vulnerable because it depends on Mexico for basic manufacturing needed for military production. We need to be aware of our vulnerability and maintain good relationships with our neighbors.
Russia's Navy Has a MASSIVE Problem
Paul J. Warburg
A functional navy is perhaps the most important factor in whether or not a nation can project global power. Russia is slowly or quickly becoming irrelevant as a naval power, and that is eroding their ability as a nation to be a global influencer.
Why Ukraine REFUSES Peace With Russia
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine refuses peace because Russia never honors agreements and commits atrocities. The West avoids funding total victory due to cost and geopolitical fears.
Why 154,000 Russian Prisoners Have "Disappeared"
Paul J. Warburg
Russia used prisoners as disposable cannon fodder to hide war costs from its people, while Ukraine recruits prisoners patriotically and integrates them into regular forces. The situations are polar opposites; Ukraine's prisoner recruitment is driven by patriotism and necessity, not deception.
The Impending Collapse of Russian Energy
Paul J. Warburg
Russia is facing an impending collapse because China and India are forcing it to sell energy at subsidized prices that destroy its budget. The strategy to use energy as a weapon against Europe has failed, leaving Russia with no viable options and a shattered economy.
The Ukraine War is Escalating QUICKLY
Paul J. Warburg
Western governments are actively trying to help Ukraine actually win the war by allowing it to fire on Russian territory and crippling Russia economically. The West is doing everything it can to help Ukraine defeat Russia by attacking them economically and allowing Ukraine to attack their territory.