The Revolution in Military Affairs: Europe's Future

Peter Zeihan 11 min

Europe must abandon reliance on American military hardware and adopt drone technology to survive Russian aggression. Necessity is forcing Europe to operate under new constraints that require adopting unproven technologies like drones.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Europe's Security Crisis

    The US is no longer a reliable security guarantor for Europe, and Russia poses an imminent threat that requires immediate preparation. Traditional fighter jets like the F-35 are too expensive and take too long to produce for Europe's urgent needs. Existing European aircraft options like the Gripen and Rafal lack the production capacity to equip all nations.

  2. 4:25

    Germany's Strategic Shift

    Germany is investing in F-35 manufacturing to master the technology before abandoning the contract for its own use. Drones offer a cost-effective and scalable alternative to manned aircraft for ground strike air power.

  3. 5:14

    Cost and Range Advantages

    Drones are significantly cheaper than jets and can match their range while being produced in thousands.

  4. 6:44

    Ukraine as a Testbed

    Europe can leverage Ukraine's drone industry and testing ground to build its own capacity faster.

  5. 9:25

    The Critical Challenge of Jamming

    Success depends on developing electronic jamming capabilities to counter drone swarms effectively.

  6. 10:23

    Future Military Reality

    Necessity is forcing Europe to adopt new technologies that were previously considered impossible.

Key points

  • 0:00

    The Americans under the Trump administration have gone from being Europe security guarantor to perhaps even a security threat.

  • 0:00

    If Ukraine falls within two to three years they're going to be fighting on European territory.

  • 0:00

    The Europeans know in their bones that the Russians are coming for them.

  • 0:00

    Historically speaking, since World War II, about half of all European military procurement has come from American firms.

  • 0:00

    The F-35 airframe costs over $100 million with triple that added over the lifespan of the vehicle.

  • 0:00

    Sweden can make about 25 Gripen aircraft a year, which is not enough for anyone else.

  • 2:19

    The Eurofighter Typhoon industrial plant is designed for 60 a year but has never run more than 20.

  • 5:14

    The most advanced rocket drone that the Ukrainians have fielded so far only costs about a million dollars.

  • 5:14

    Anti-personal drones that the Ukrainians have been kicking out in the millions cost two orders of magnitude less.

  • 5:14

    The Shaheds that come out of Iran have the same range as the F-35 and can be sent out in the thousands.

  • 6:00

    Europeans are terrified because they have to turn the page on the technological book that they're used to.

  • 9:25

    It's jamming, because if you can prevent the drones from functioning, then they really can't target anything.

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