Why Would Europe Trust France with ALL the Nukes?

Peter Zeihan 4 min

Europeans have lost confidence in the United States and will develop independent nuclear deterrents because NATO no longer guarantees their security. In the next few years, many European countries will get their own deterrent because they must make decisions that not only the Americans don't like, but other Europeans don't like either.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    France's Proposed Nuclear Shield

    Emmanuel Macron wants to expand France's nuclear deterrent to provide a missile shield for the entire European Union, positioning France as the sole EU nation with nuclear weapons following Britain's departure.

  2. 0:36

    Loss of Confidence in the United States

    Europeans have lost confidence in the United States after the Greenland incident, realizing that seventy-five years of alliance is functionally over and questioning American reliability on critical issues. Europe is building independent militaries and fusing defense with Ukraine, leading to a mass proliferation process where every country wants its own nuclear deterrent rather than relying on France. Any European country with a nuclear power plant can easily build weapons using existing technology, as there is no technical obstacle preventing proliferation.

  3. 2:19

    The Threshold Problem and National Sovereignty

    France cannot act as a shield because it will not use its own nuclear weapons for smaller nations' crises, leading every country to seek its own deterrent.

  4. 2:51

    Historical Context of European Conflict

    Europe is historically the most blood-drenched territory on the planet, with countries at odds with each other for centuries until American occupation forced unity. In the coming years, nations like Finland, Sweden, Romania, Poland, and Germany will likely develop their own nuclear deterrents as NATO loses meaning. As NATO loses meaning, Europeans will start making decisions for themselves that Americans and other Europeans may not like.

Key points

  • 0:00

    The president of France, Emmanuel Macon, wants to expand the French nuclear deterrent in order to provide a missile shield for everybody in the European Union.

  • 0:36

    When the Greenland fiasco happened earlier this year, the Europeans realized that 75 years of alliance was functionally over.

  • 0:36

    Part of this means building much bigger militaries that are independent of the United States.

  • 0:36

    Part of this means fusing their defense establishments with the Ukrainian one to put Ukrainian tech and European capital manufacturing capacity to generate an entirely new style of war.

  • 0:36

    Any country that has a nuclear power plant, there's a dozen European countries like that, could relatively easy build a nuke with what they have on hand.

  • 0:36

    The Europeans have lost confidence in the United States because of the Greenland incident.

  • 2:51

    Historically speaking, Europe is the most blood-drenched chunk of territory on this planet.

  • 2:51

    It's only with the post-World War II settlements where the Americans basically occupied the place for 40 years that all of these countries were forced to be on the same side.

  • 2:51

    We should be looking in the next few years for a number of countries that are already very close technically, Finland, Sweden, Romania, Poland, Germany, all getting their own deterrent.

  • 2:51

    If NATO doesn't mean anything anymore, then the Europeans have to start making decisions for themselves.

  • 2:51

    A lot of Europeans are going to make decisions that not only the Americans don't like, but other Europeans don't like either.

Map of the places in “France and the UK Choose the Nuclear Option” 4:11

France and the UK Choose the Nuclear Option

Peter Zeihan

The UK and France are pursuing nuclear weapons to prevent Germany from feeling secure enough to build its own deterrent. Allowing Germany to develop nukes would recreate the dangerous pressure cooker of 19th-century Europe.

7:54

The Two-Speed EU of the Future

Peter Zeihan

Europe cannot reform its institutions quickly enough because it lacks the cultural and legal structures for federalism, and no devastating conflict has yet occurred to force change. The EU will likely fracture under pressure rather than negotiate incrementally into a more federal structure.

4:07

Iceland and Norway Ponder EU Membership

Peter Zeihan

Iceland and Norway are reconsidering EU membership because the United States is acting as a predatory security guarantor demanding Greenland. The Nordic countries are shifting their strategic policy away from relying solely on the United States.

3:18

What Does a Post US NATO Look Like?

Peter Zeihan

Europe must reorganize into a military grouping led by France, Poland, and the Scandinavians because the current economic union is failing due to demographics. Sweden, Poland, and France are the ones to watch the most in terms of economics and defense.

23:40

France Just Dealt Russia a DEVASTATING Blow

Paul J. Warburg

Countries are positioning themselves within Ukraine's future sphere of influence rather than trying to control Ukraine. Ukraine will hold power over other countries dependent on its weapons supplies.

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