Something BIG is Brewing in Chechnya Right Now

Paul J. Warburg 27 min

Russia is facing a massive potential crisis in Chechnya, but it's not just Chechnya, let me remind you. This crisis could easily expand to the North Caucasus, to several different republics, just as it did after the First Chechen War.

  • Vladimir Putin
  • Bashar al-Assad

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Growing Crisis in Chechnya

    Vladimir Putin has a growing crisis on his hands, and if you can believe it, it's actually completely separate from the war in Ukraine, though the two do feed into each other and make each other much worse. Russia's power in this region is being threatened in a way that it hasn't been threatened in a very long time. And it could easily fall out of Russia's grasp with a lot of geopolitical implications. And right now, as this crisis is brewing in Chechnya, on the north side of the Caucasus Mountains, there's an equal crisis, maybe not an equal crisis, but a parallel crisis happening in Armenia to the south of the Caucasus Mountains.

  2. 5:06

    The Risk of Chechen Secession

    This then is not just a story about one region. It's a story of a spark that could start a wildfire. A wildfire that Putin has successfully put out in the past, but that Putin no longer has as much power to put out as he once did.

  3. 7:22

    Kadyrov's Terminal Illness and Succession

    There is so much human drama here, and as you study this story, you learn so much about history, human psychology, and geopolitics. I just find it fascinating.

  4. 21:09

    The Weakness of Kadyrov's Successors

    In Chechnya, your successor needs to be at least 30 years old. And Kadyrov's oldest child is a daughter who is 27. Not exactly a great candidate because she's a female in that society, anyways, and she's still three years off.

  5. 21:54

    The Potential for Chechen Independence

    That really could start up another movement. All of that being said, we're still not done yet, and this is potentially the most interesting piece yet. Because there is yet another spark that makes a potential rebellion in Chechnya in some ways more likely than it has actually been in the past. There is actually a Chechen government in exile in Ukraine, in the capital city of Kyiv. And there are a couple of Chechen battalions fighting on Ukraine's side in their war against Russia.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Vladimir Putin has a growing crisis on his hands, and if you can believe it, it's actually completely separate from the war in Ukraine, though the two do feed into each other and make each other much worse.

  • 0:00

    Russia's power in this region is being threatened in a way that it hasn't been threatened in a very long time. And it could easily fall out of Russia's grasp with a lot of geopolitical implications.

  • 5:06

    This then is not just a story about one region. It's a story of a spark that could start a wildfire. A wildfire that Putin has successfully put out in the past, but that Putin no longer has as much power to put out as he once did.

  • 21:09

    In Chechnya, your successor needs to be at least 30 years old. And Kadyrov's oldest child is a daughter who is 27. Not exactly a great candidate because she's a female in that society, anyways, and she's still three years off.

  • 21:54

    That really could start up another movement. All of that being said, we're still not done yet, and this is potentially the most interesting piece yet. Because there is yet another spark that makes a potential rebellion in Chechnya in some ways more likely than it has actually been in the past.

  • 21:54

    There is actually a Chechen government in exile in Ukraine, in the capital city of Kyiv. And there are a couple of Chechen battalions fighting on Ukraine's side in their war against Russia.

  • 0:00

    And right now, as this crisis is brewing in Chechnya, on the north side of the Caucasus Mountains, there's an equal crisis, maybe not an equal crisis, but a parallel crisis happening in Armenia to the south of the Caucasus Mountains.

  • 25:13

    Russia is facing a massive potential crisis in Chechnya, but it's not just Chechnya, let me remind you. This crisis could easily expand to the North Caucasus, to several different republics, just as it did after the First Chechen War.

Who and where

People · 2

  • Drawing of Vladimir Putin

    Vladimir Putin 22

    President of the Russian Federation

    Photo 1

  • Drawing of Bashar al-Assad

    Bashar al-Assad 1

    Syrian convicted fugitive and former President of Syria from 2000 to 2024

    Photo 2

1. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

2. Photo: khamenei.ir, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Bashar al-Assad)

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AI-generated summary · model qwen3.5:9b-12k · prompt version whole-3.window-7.combine-10.s-f4be8e · video id dMHxXIgSPws · Watch on YouTube