Russia Just Lost Their Most Important Leader (more important than Putin)
Paul J. Warburg
19 min
Nabulina's disappearance signals that her inflation-curing policies have failed, forcing Russia toward a desperate total war economy. Russia is likely trying to push its central banker out of the way to pave the path forward towards escalation and total war.
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Vladimir Putin
Chapters
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0:00
The Missing Central Banker
Elvira Nabulina, Russia's central banker, has been missing for three weeks, possibly dead or removed from power.
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1:06
The Competence Paradox
Russia is a kleptocracy where competence is usually a liability, yet Nabulina was essential to keep the economy functioning.
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3:16
Economic Tactics and Limits
Nabulina used high interest rates to keep rubles stable, but these tactics are now failing as military spending consumes the economy.
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5:39
Military vs. Economy Conflict
The military demands increased budget while economists demand cuts, creating a deadlock that Nabulina previously managed.
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6:35
Suspicious Circumstances
Nabulina's disappearance is suspicious due to missing staff, removed bodyguards, and absence from key meetings.
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9:28
The Breaking Point
Nabulina likely resigned or was removed because her policies preventing total war are no longer viable for the current situation.
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14:12
Desperation and Total War
Russia is likely shifting toward a total war economy similar to WWII Germany or the Soviet Union.
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15:43
Conflict of Interests
Nabulina prioritized curbing inflation for the people, while Putin now needs money printing to fund total war.
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16:58
Inevitable Escalation
Removing Nabulina allows Putin to increase government purchasing power, signaling the war will worsen before it ends.
Key points
- 0:00
Elvira Nabulina has been missing for approximately three weeks.
- 1:06
Competence is often a liability in Russia's kleptocratic system.
- 3:16
Nabulina stretched Russian resources despite heavy sanctions and battlefield losses.
- 5:39
The military now demands increased budget while economists demand cuts.
- 6:35
Nabulina's staff and bodyguards have also disappeared or been removed.
- 9:28
Nabulina previously tried to resign when the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
- 14:12
Her policies prevented martial law and wide-scale mobilization.
- 15:43
Nabulina's high interest rates kept rubles stable but curbed money printing.
- 16:58
Putin now needs to increase government purchasing power for total war.
- 14:12
Russia is likely shifting toward a desperate total war economy.
Who and where
People · 1
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Vladimir Putin 11
President of the Russian Federation
Photo 1
1. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)
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