The Siege of Crimea Has Already Begun…but nobody’s talking about it

Paul J. Warburg 15 min

The siege of Crimea has already begun and Russia is willing to abandon the peninsula under sufficient pressure. Ukraine can and will take Crimea when the time is right, destroying whatever remains of Vladimir Putin's legacy.

  • Vladimir Putin
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Importance of Crimea

    Crimea is a pivotal event in both Russian and Ukrainian history, with Russia ranking it third in importance after WWII and the first astronaut launch. Ukraine views it as the starting point of the war that must end there.

  2. 5:06

    The Siege Strategy

    A siege involves making Crimea militarily untenable by preventing equipment replacement rather than starving civilians. Ukraine has already forced the Black Sea Fleet to relocate and destroyed air defenses.

  3. 7:35

    Abandoning the Peninsula

    Russia has abandoned Crimea by diverting supplies through land routes instead of the bridge due to fear of destruction. This proves they cannot defend it under siege conditions.

  4. 10:02

    Strategic Ambiguity

    Ukraine strikes the Kerch Strait Bridge repeatedly but does not destroy it. This signals capability while leaving an escape route for Russian citizens living on the peninsula.

  5. 11:35

    Escalating Pressure

    Ukraine is ramping up strikes on helicopters, air defenses, and railway infrastructure. Historical precedents show using threats as leverage without immediate destruction.

  6. 12:53

    The Likely Conclusion

    Ukraine can and will take Crimea when the time is right. This outcome will destroy whatever remains of Vladimir Putin's legacy if the world continues to support Ukraine.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Crimea ranks as the third most important event in Russian history after World War II and the first astronaut launch.

  • 0:00

    Ukraine President Vladimir Zelensky stated that the war began in Crimea and will end there.

  • 5:06

    A siege makes Crimea militarily untenable by preventing equipment replacement rather than starving civilians.

  • 5:06

    Ukraine forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to relocate off the peninsula due to drone pressure and missile strikes.

  • 5:06

    Ukraine destroyed air defense systems allowing long-range missiles to strike ships and the Kerch Strait Bridge.

  • 7:35

    Russia diverts supplies from other frontline areas to Crimea through land routes instead of the bridge.

  • 7:35

    Ukraine strikes the Kerch Strait Bridge repeatedly but does not destroy it to allow an escape route.

  • 11:35

    Ukraine strikes railway infrastructure supplying troops on Crimea to increase pressure on the peninsula.

  • 7:35

    Russia is willing to abandon Crimea because it draws resources away from other frontline areas.

  • 12:53

    Ukraine will take Crimea when the time is right, destroying whatever remains of Vladimir Putin's legacy.

Who and where

People · 2

  • Drawing of Vladimir Putin

    Vladimir Putin 4

    President of the Russian Federation

    Photo 1

  • Drawing of Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy 1

    President of Ukraine since 2019

    Photo 2

1. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

2. Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)

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