Should Alberta Secede from Canada?

Peter Zeihan 4 min

The Supreme Court of Canada ruled decades ago in the case of Quebec that if there is a plebiscite and they vote for a referendum, you've got to let them go. Independent Alberta would need to negotiate some sort of extensive free trade pact with Canada or apply for U.S. statehood and join the United States.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Legal Framework for Secession

    The Supreme Court of Canada ruled decades ago in the case of Quebec that if there is a plebiscite and they vote for a referendum, you've got to let them go. So this is legal by Canadian law.

  2. 1:07

    Economic Arguments and Demographics

    The economic argument relies on Canada aging rapidly while Alberta does not, creating financial transfers. However, recent migrant surges have partially addressed these demographic issues. An independent Alberta would be screwed because it is landlocked with U.S. dollar-denominated exports, creating an inflationary environment. Independent Alberta must negotiate a free trade pact with Canada or apply for U.S. statehood to survive.

Key points

  • 0:00

    The Supreme Court of Canada ruled decades ago in the case of Quebec that if there is a plebiscite and they vote for a referendum, you've got to let them go.

  • 1:07

    Canada is aging very, very rapidly and Alberta is not.

  • 1:07

    Financial transfers from Alberta to Canada have begun bigger and bigger and bigger.

  • 1:07

    Canada has really brought in a surge of migrants that have partially addressed some of the demographic issues.

  • 1:07

    At this moment, Alberta is actually in a decent position financially versus the rest of Canada.

  • 1:07

    If you have an independent Alberta exporting for hard currency, you have a very inflationary environment very, very, very quickly.

  • 1:07

    It would be difficult to survive in a country that now has a very, very limited labor pool.

  • 1:07

    Independent Alberta would need to negotiate some sort of extensive free trade pact with Canada.

  • 1:07

    Independent Alberta would need to apply for U.S. statehood and join the United States.

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