What's The Deal in Canada?

Peter Zeihan 5 min

Prime Minister Carney and Alberta Premier Smith reached a compromise on energy and carbon pricing after years of conflict. I'm hopeful they've got a lot of work ahead of them.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Breakthrough Agreement

    Prime Minister Carney and Alberta Premier Smith reached a compromise on energy and carbon pricing after years of conflict. The federal government agreed to push a bitumen pipeline across British Columbia in exchange for Alberta accepting carbon pricing. Alberta avoided carbon pricing because it is an oil economy, while Ottawa preferred green policies despite Alberta funding the federal budget.

  2. 2:12

    The Political Middle Returns

    Prime Minister Carney campaigned on returning to the political middle, ending a decade where the center was vacant. Canada's First Nations hold veto power, British Columbia opposes the pipeline, and the carbon pricing number remains unset.

  3. 3:57

    The Carbon Capture Program

    A carbon capture program is included in the deal, though its cost and market benefits remain unknown until pricing is set.

  4. 4:34

    Hope for Future Cooperation

    The speaker expresses hope that Carney and Smith will complete their work ahead after seeing such broad agreement.

Key points

  • 0:00

    It was a civil conversation that ended in a compromise.

  • 0:00

    The Canadian government at the federal level has agreed to now push a bitumen pipeline.

  • 0:00

    Alberta has always vociferously avoided any sort of carbon pricing or emissions trading.

  • 2:12

    Kearney campaigned on returning to the political middle.

  • 2:12

    At the moment, Canada's First Nations are not part of this deal.

  • 3:57

    And until we know what the number is, one of the other components of this deal, which is a carbon capture program, we don't know how that's going to work.

  • 2:12

    British Columbia, which is the province that this pipeline has to go through, is not part of this deal.

  • 4:34

    I'm hopeful they've got a lot of work ahead of them.

3:48

A Canadian Pipe(line) Dream

Peter Zeihan

Canada's heavy crude is trapped in North America due to lack of export routes and political friction with the US. Albertans keep talking about independence because if they can get a different relationship with the United States, then all of a sudden a lot of that mechanical stuff just disappears.

3:39

Should Alberta Secede from Canada?

Peter Zeihan

The Supreme Court of Canada ruled decades ago in the case of Quebec that if there is a plebiscite and they vote for a referendum, you've got to let them go. Independent Alberta would need to negotiate some sort of extensive free trade pact with Canada or apply for U.S. statehood and join the United States.

9:02

No Immigrants & Negative Growth = Canada’s Economic Tipping Point

Peter Zeihan

Closing borders without a massive change in demographic structures risks hollowing out the entire economic fabric of the country. Canada must choose between accepting higher nationalism or enduring the Trump administration to secure necessary trade deals.

7:32

The U.S. and Mexico Kick Off NAFTA Talks

Peter Zeihan

The U.S. Prioritizes Mexico over Canada despite better economic outcomes with Canada because political hostility prevents choosing the obvious path. The U.S. Should prioritize Canada to avoid wasting resources rebuilding infrastructure before global trade collapses.

5:53

Canada's China Option

Peter Zeihan

Canada has no viable alternative trading partner because all provinces trade more with the United States than with each other. The United States gains a uniquely beneficial deal by accessing Canadian workforce and infrastructure without paying for them.

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