The Revolution in Military Affairs: Ditching Artillery
Peter Zeihan
6 min
Artillery is incredibly vulnerable because drones cost less than shells and acoustic detection allows counter-battery fire before impact. The rules of war are changing every week, making current weapon systems obsolete for future conflicts.
Chapters
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0:00
The Vulnerability of Artillery
Artillery allows forces to attack from miles away, but drones change the math by costing less than shells and making artillery vulnerable to acoustic detection. Drones cost less than artillery shells and require skilled operators, making traditional artillery less effective against modern detection systems. Russia relies on artillery because it requires low technical skills, allowing serfs to operate heavy weapons without advanced training. Russia adopted artillery after Napoleon's invasion because serfs could lug heavy guns without needing technical skills or intelligentsia.
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2:36
Acoustic Detection Systems
Ukraine uses acoustic detection to triangulate drone sounds and fire counter-battery shots before artillery shells even hit the ground.
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4:06
Manufacturing Challenges for Drones
Producing thousands of drones daily requires a highly skilled workforce, which Russia lacks compared to Ukraine's aerospace industry. Russia imports technical skills from Iran, North Korea, and China to manufacture drone parts since its domestic workforce lacks the necessary expertise. War rules change weekly as technology outpaces traditional training, making current weapon systems obsolete for future conflicts.
Key points
- 0:00
Artillery allows a force to assault another force from literally miles away.
- 0:00
A single first person piloted drone costs less than an artillery shell.
- 0:00
Russia is an artillery force that just happens to have some tanks.
- 0:00
Serfs could operate artillery because it involved lugging stuff from point to point.
- 2:36
Ukraine built an acoustic detection system around the perimeter of the country.
- 2:36
Counter-battery fire can happen before the shell is even hit.
- 4:06
Producing drones requires a workforce much more technically skilled than artillery operators.
- 4:06
Russia imports technical skill from places like Iran and North Korea.
- 4:06
Thinking current weapon systems are the weapons of the future is silly.
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