The Revolution in Military Affairs: Wars Without People
Peter Zeihan
7 min
The combination of less manpower to establish that buffer, combined with an insufficient defensive envelope to provide passive cover for that buffer, means that more and more territory across the planet is simply going to be unlivable because of conflict. Future warfare will focus on denying the opponent's ability to function rather than protecting one's own.
Chapters
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0:00
Historical Context of Warfare
The video begins by examining historical military shifts, starting with the Mongol cavalry's dominance in the late dark ages and early middle ages. It explains how their speed and lethality allowed them to raid and destroy governments across China and Russia before developing defensive counters like forest retreats and fortifications.
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2:12
The Impact of Demographic Decline
The discussion transitions to the current era of terminal demographics, highlighting a critical shortage of people aged 50 and under who can serve in the military. This lack of manpower makes it difficult to hold ground or protect civilian infrastructure necessary for population survival.
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4:08
The Rise of Drones as Modern Cavalry
Drones are identified as the new equivalent to historical cavalry, capable of operating on tethers for 10 kilometers or untethered for up to 1,500 kilometers. Their presence can render opposing terrain completely unlivable if an adversary possesses significant numbers.
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4:31
The Emergence of No-Man Zones
A new concept called the march is described as areas on the edge of terrain that cannot be reliably protected by one side nor occupied by the other. These zones are already visible in eastern and northeastern Ukraine where civilians cannot live or farm.
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5:07
Future Territorial Unlivability
The combination of insufficient manpower to establish buffers and inadequate defensive technology against drones means more territory across the planet will become unlivable due to conflict. Current defensive options like jamming have very limited range compared to drone capabilities. The video concludes by arguing that state power will become significantly more potent as the ability to man armies diminishes. Future warfare will focus on denying the opponent's ability to function rather than protecting one's own territory until technology changes again.
Key points
- 0:00
Massed cavalry charges gave the Mongols unprecedented speed and lethality in the late dark ages.
- 0:00
Mongols destroyed governments across China, eastern Russia, and the steppe south before developing counters.
- 0:00
Russians initially countered Mongol cavalry by retreating into forests where horses could not charge effectively.
- 2:12
Europe adopted fortifications as a defense against cavalry because stone walls stop horse charges.
- 2:12
Feudalism developed so people could store a year of grain within fortifications to wait out sieges.
- 2:12
There is currently a shortage of people aged 50 and under capable of military service.
- 4:08
Drones can operate on tethers for 10 kilometers or untethered for up to 1,500 kilometers.
- 4:08
Opposing forces with many drones can make terrain completely unlivable for civilians.
- 4:31
The march describes areas where neither side can reliably protect or occupy the land.
- 4:31
Eastern and northeastern Ukraine already serve as examples of these unlivable no-man zones.
- 5:07
State power will increase as the ability to man armies becomes less capable.
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