Ukraine Hammers Russian Oil Infrastructure

Peter Zeihan 5 min

If Russian crude cannot flow due to offline infrastructure, the Russian economic situation would then become a lot more difficult because oil sales remain what they have always been for Moscow. With politics changed and economic dependencies shifted, we should expect a lot more Russian crude going offline.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Ukraine's Escalating Attacks on Russian Energy

    Ukraine has increased attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, taking offline 15-20% of processing capacity and causing localized gasoline shortages.

  2. 0:37

    Three Factors Driving the Shift

    The situation changed due to Biden leaving office, Europe stopping all Russian energy imports, and Ukraine developing better long-range weaponry.

  3. 2:36

    Targeting Critical Pipeline Hubs

    Ukraine is now targeting refineries in Samara, a critical hub where 3 million barrels daily flow, disrupting exports to the Black Sea.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Ukraine has taken offline between 15 and 20% of Russia's oil processing capacity.

  • 0:37

    Biden previously argued that attacking energy infrastructure would raise global prices politically unpalatable for Americans.

  • 0:37

    Europe no longer takes any piped oil or natural gas from Russia aside from small volumes.

  • 0:37

    Deals to transit Russian oil and natural gas across Ukrainian space expired at the beginning of the year.

  • 2:12

    Ukraine now has reliable strike range of about 1,200 kilometers or 700 miles.

  • 2:36

    The city of Samara handles roughly 3 million barrels a day in pipeline flow.

  • 2:36

    Offline refineries force crude to stay in pipelines, creating bottlenecks that shut in production.

  • 2:36

    Disrupting these hubs will end meaningful exports from Russian crude to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

  • 2:36

    Oil sales remain Moscow's single biggest source of income going all the way back to Soviet times.

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