The Pressure Is Dialing Up on Russia’s Oil Network

Peter Zeihan 6 min

The Russians are losing flexibility within their system. We could be, three years into this war, finally on the verge of a crude shortage because the Russians just can't play.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Destruction of Refining Capacity

    Ukrainian drone attacks have disabled 15 to 20 percent of Russia's refining capacity.

  2. 1:17

    Strategic Hit on Bashkiria

    Attacks on Bashkiria threaten to lock up three million barrels per day at a pipeline nexus.

  3. 1:48

    Damage to Baltic Ports

    Ports Primorsk and Ushluga now operate below half their previous effectiveness. Russia faces a crisis as pipelines to Europe are shut and maritime ports cannot handle volume. Pressure will force either a pipeline rupture or the shutdown of production sites at wellheads.

  4. 3:56

    Winter Freezing and Repair Delays

    Frozen crude in winter requires redrilling, which is impossible without Western technology or parts. Insurance payouts for damaged tankers have not yet occurred, reducing tanker volume to ports.

  5. 5:19

    Simultaneous System Failure

    Multiple critical failures are occurring simultaneously after three years of waiting.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Somewhere between 15 and 20 percent of the refining capacity going offline

  • 1:17

    Upwards of 3 million barrels a day that could get locked in

  • 1:48

    Both of them now are operating below half effectiveness

  • 1:48

    The Russians are losing flexibility within their system

  • 1:48

    There's going to be so much pressure in the system that either we're going to have a rupture in the pipeline

  • 3:56

    The crude will freeze in the wellhead

  • 3:56

    All of a sudden has to be paid out. And that hasn't happened yet

  • 5:19

    We've been waiting for all of these things to happen, either one or the other, for three years, and all of a sudden they're all happening at the same time

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