Russia’s Pipeline Problem is Worse Than You Think

Paul J. Warburg 17 min

Russia lost its leverage over Moldova and Transnistria when it cut off gas supplies. The West is winning in every important way, even if that victory isn't immediately apparent.

  • Bashar al-Assad
  • Vladimir Putin

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Ukraine Stops Russian Gas Flow

    Ukraine ends a contract allowing Russian gas to flow through its territory, cutting off heat for dependent European regions.

  2. 3:13

    Transnistria Faces Energy Crisis

    The breakaway region of Transnistria loses all Russian gas imports, shutting down industry and leaving people without heat.

  3. 5:52

    Transnistria Rejects Moldovan Help

    Transnistria refuses free energy aid from Moldova, insisting on waiting for Russia to provide gas despite the freezing conditions. Transnistrian leadership prioritizes ideological loyalty to Russia over practical survival, refusing to pay for gas or accept Western aid.

  4. 10:17

    Russian Leverage via Gazprom

    Russia used a power plant in Transnistria owned by Gazprom to control Moldova's energy supply and maintain political influence.

  5. 14:09

    Loss of Russian Control

    With gas supplies cut, Russia loses its leverage over Moldova and Transnistria, potentially leading to a shift toward the West. The United States has become a predominant exporter of liquid natural gas, replacing Russia's position in the energy market.

  6. 16:18

    West Wins the Ideological Duel

    The West is winning the struggle against Russian influence by offering practical solutions where coercion previously failed.

Key points

  • 0:17

    Ukraine chose not to renew a contract allowing Russian gas to flow through Ukrainian territory.

  • 0:17

    Regions of Europe dependent on Russian gas are now without heat.

  • 3:13

    Transnistria has chosen 100% dependence on Russian gas imports for its energy needs.

  • 3:13

    The Transnistrian government advises people to gather in single rooms and cover windows with blankets.

  • 3:13

    All industry in Transnistria except for critical food industry has been shut down.

  • 5:52

    Transnistria declined help from Moldova because it wants to wait for Russia to save them.

  • 5:52

    Transnistrian leadership refuses aid due to ideological reasons favoring Russia over the West.

  • 10:17

    Russia used a power plant in Transnistria owned by Gazprom to create cheap energy for Moldova.

  • 10:17

    Russia is trying to keep Transnistria politically in its corner of the world through this arrangement.

  • 14:09

    The loss of gas supplies will cause Russia to lose leverage over Moldova and Transnistria.

  • 14:09

    Transnistria may soon shift into the European orbit as Russian support disappears.

  • 14:09

    The United States is replacing Russia's position by becoming a predominant exporter of liquid natural gas.

Who and where

People · 2

  • Drawing of Vladimir Putin

    Vladimir Putin 2

    President of the Russian Federation

    Photo 1

  • Drawing of Bashar al-Assad

    Bashar al-Assad 1

    Syrian convicted fugitive and former President of Syria from 2000 to 2024

    Photo 2

1. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

2. Photo: khamenei.ir, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Bashar al-Assad)

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