Siberia Now Wants to Secede From Russia

Paul J. Warburg 18 min

The war in Ukraine has created conditions where Eastern Russian republics may break away from Moscow, potentially turning to China for protection. If China decides to step in and offer protection to independence movements, it could be the catalyst that triggers the breakup of Russia.

  • Vladimir Putin

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Growing Breakaway Sentiment

    Breakaway sentiment is increasing in Siberia and the Far East due to gasoline shortages, weakened federal policing, and oligarch-funded vigilante groups.

  2. 1:11

    The Three Conditions for Revolution

    A revolution requires a weakened central government, a credible reason to break away, and a leader with resources like Russian oligarchs. Vladimir Putin has long feared the disintegration of the Russian Federation, having fought wars to prevent republics like Chechnya from declaring independence.

  3. 3:47

    Military and Economic Wounds

    The war in Ukraine has permanently damaged Russia's military power and economic stability, undermining the central government's ability to hold regions together.

  4. 6:18

    Russia Is Not a Monoculture

    Russia is not a monoculture; outside the western core, it consists of diverse cultures with different beliefs about how they want to orchestrate their life.

  5. 8:58

    Historical Patterns of Collapse

    Russian history shows patterns of collapse, from the Russian Revolution to the Soviet Union's disintegration, where republics broke away during moments of weakness. Eastern republics remained united because they were sparsely populated, resource-rich, and lacked external protection like NATO or a strong China.

  6. 11:52

    China as a New Protector

    China has risen as a potential protector of Eastern Russian republics, offering support similar to how NATO protected former Soviet republics.

  7. 14:06

    Putin's Anti-Chinese Rhetoric

    Vladimir Putin and his party have long used anti-Chinese immigration rhetoric, fearing that Chinese citizens will replace Russians in the Far East.

  8. 14:23

    The Catalyst for Disintegration

    The combination of a failing military, collapsing economy, and strengthening local movements creates conditions for the final phase of Russian Empire disintegration.

  9. 16:36

    The Straw That Breaks the Camel's Back

    If China decides to step in and offer protection to independence movements, it could be the catalyst that triggers the breakup of Russia.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Breakaway sentiment is increasing in Siberia and the Far East due to gasoline shortages.

  • 0:00

    The Russian federal government has effectively lost its ability to police these regions.

  • 0:00

    Vigilante groups funded by oligarchs are replacing the federal government in some areas.

  • 1:11

    A revolution requires a weakened central government, a credible reason to break away, and a leader with resources.

  • 1:11

    Vladimir Putin has long feared the disintegration of the Russian Federation since he took office.

  • 3:47

    The war in Ukraine has permanently damaged Russia's military power and economic stability.

  • 6:18

    Russia is not a monoculture; outside the western core, it consists of diverse cultures with different beliefs.

  • 8:58

    Russian history shows patterns of collapse, from the Russian Revolution to the Soviet Union's disintegration.

  • 8:58

    Eastern republics remained united because they were sparsely populated and lacked external protection.

  • 11:52

    China has risen as a potential protector of Eastern Russian republics.

  • 14:06

    Vladimir Putin and his party have long used anti-Chinese immigration rhetoric, fearing Chinese citizens will replace Russians in the Far East.

  • 14:23

    The combination of a failing military, collapsing economy, and strengthening local movements creates conditions for disintegration.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Vladimir Putin

    Vladimir Putin 17

    President of the Russian Federation

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

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