Russia's New Crisis Could Be Their Worst One Yet

Paul J. Warburg 17 min

Ukraine is playing a long game by destroying air defense systems faster than Russia can replace them, forcing Moscow to abandon distant regions to protect its own elite. Ukraine must keep executing this winning strategy to show Russia that attacking a free people whose homes and families are at stake will not succeed.

  • Vladimir Putin

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Shift from Attrition to Active Advantage

    Ukraine has moved from a defensive war of attrition to actively exploiting Russian weaknesses in manpower, tanks, and refineries to create battlefield advantages.

  2. 4:56

    Exposing Russia's Defensive Vulnerabilities

    Russia cannot defend its entire territory due to size, forcing it to prioritize air defenses around critical targets while leaving large areas exposed.

  3. 7:28

    The Domino Effect on Air Defense

    Destroying air defense systems creates gaps that make it easier to destroy subsequent systems, leading to an exponential loss of defensive capability.

  4. 10:26

    Centralizing Defense Around the Elite

    As air defenses dwindle, Moscow elites will prioritize protecting themselves over distant regions, causing local populations to suffer costs and lose support.

  5. 12:27

    The Long Game Strategy

    Ukraine plays a long game by making permanent changes to the battlefield, preventing Russia from quickly replacing destroyed air defense systems. Prolonged conflict will deplete Russian resources, lower soldier loyalty, and create conditions where Ukraine can exploit gaps to end the war.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Ukraine has reached the end of the beginning where strategies are now reaching maturity.

  • 0:00

    Russia struggles with attrition in manpower, tanks, and armored vehicles.

  • 2:26

    Ukraine strikes refineries to deplete Russian parts needed for repairs.

  • 4:56

    Russia cannot adequately defend its entire territory due to its size.

  • 4:56

    Flamingo cruise missiles force Russia to prioritize air defenses around specific targets.

  • 4:56

    Ukraine destroys air defense systems while they are in transit mode.

  • 7:28

    Destroying one system makes it easier to destroy subsequent ones in a domino effect.

  • 10:26

    Moscow elites will protect themselves while distant regions suffer costs and lose support.

  • 12:27

    Replacing destroyed air defense systems takes 12 to 18 months under peacetime conditions.

  • 12:27

    The longer the war goes, the more likely Ukraine is to create gaps in the front line.

  • 12:27

    Russia will eventually run out of ability to deliver troops and supplies to the front.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Vladimir Putin

    Vladimir Putin 1

    President of the Russian Federation

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

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