The hidden move that proves Putin's getting desperate

Paul J. Warburg 12 min

Putin cares deeply about public opinion because he fears his own people might overthrow him if they suffer too much. Just because Putin doesn't need his people's vote doesn't mean he doesn't fear what they think.

  • Vladimir Putin

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Winter Ceasefire Talks

    Russia and Ukraine are negotiating a partial ceasefire regarding energy infrastructure to prevent civilian suffering during the upcoming winter.

  2. 2:36

    Putin's Fear of Domestic Unrest

    The negotiations reveal that Putin cares deeply about public opinion because he fears losing power if his people suffer too much. Russia is willing to slow down its war machine and avoid conscripting unwilling soldiers to prevent domestic support from eroding.

  3. 7:50

    The Greatest Threat

    Putin views his own population as the greatest threat to his regime, fearing they might overthrow him if conditions deteriorate.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Russia and Ukraine are negotiating a partial ceasefire regarding energy infrastructure to prevent civilian suffering during the upcoming winter.

  • 0:00

    The timing of these negotiations indicates the desire is not primarily economic but to avoid breaking the will of the people within the nations.

  • 0:00

    Last winter, people in Moscow stood around barrels lighting fires to keep warm due to heating breakdowns across the Russian economy.

  • 0:00

    When heating failed last year, support at home for the war effort fell significantly.

  • 5:07

    Putin does not care what happens to his people; he would gladly send any Russian to a horrific death if it achieved his goals.

  • 5:07

    Putin wants those people to die thinking about how great of a guy he is.

  • 5:07

    Putin began to get a lot more controlling and paranoid about public opinion after witnessing the Arab Spring.

  • 5:07

    Putin's biggest fear is that his own people would overthrow him, not just lose power but be humiliated.

  • 6:49

    Russia puts out massive doses of propaganda because it is paranoid about what people think and terrified of losing narrative control.

  • 6:49

    Putin kills dissenters like Alexei Navalny because he is terrified that a day might come when he can no longer control the narrative.

  • 7:50

    Putin has not conscripted unwilling soldiers to the front lines because he fears doing so will erode support at home.

  • 9:49

    A mercenary army previously turned on Russia and marched on Moscow, but regular Russians were not yet ready to join that movement.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Vladimir Putin

    Vladimir Putin 23

    President of the Russian Federation

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

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