Ukraine Just Sent Russia Back to the Stone Age

Paul J. Warburg 19 min

Russia is definitely now going to get left behind even further than they already were. In either case, Russia's data center problem is massive, and it's quickly growing tendrils into other areas that Russia likely never anticipated.

  • Mindaugas Sinkevičius
  • Tucker Carlson
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Ukraine strikes Russian data centers causing cascading failures

    Russia faces a nightmare scenario after Ukraine systematically targeted its largest operating data centers and the one under construction. This escalation follows a pattern where Ukraine retaliates with vengeance against infrastructure categories previously hit by Russia. The timing is critical as the global world races to build new data centers for AI, leaving Russia further behind.

  2. 2:24

    Global memory shortage forces Russia into an impossible rebuild

    Russia must rebuild its digital infrastructure during the tightest memory market in history, with flash memory prices up over 600%. Sanctions and export controls prevent direct access to necessary hardware, making bulk purchases risky and difficult. This situation is compared to rebuilding a house when lumber costs are four times normal.

  3. 7:33

    Disruption of Yandex cloud and sovereign AI capabilities

    Strikes caused 78% of Yandex's cloud network to go dark, disrupting banking, medical services, and taxi operations. The damaged sites housed supercomputers essential for training Russia's sovereign AI models. Yandex now warns customers to create disaster recovery plans, implying potential total loss.

  4. 9:53

    Inability to relocate data due to Russian sovereignty laws

    Russia cannot safely move data abroad because laws require all citizen data to be stored physically inside Russia. Major cloud providers withdrew in 2022, leaving no international safe havens. Kazakhstan lacks the necessary infrastructure scale for immediate relocation. There are rumors that strikes disrupted Russia's internet bot networks just before the US midterm elections. While some studies show little change in pro-Russian channel traffic, others suggest a drop in overall bot activity. Personal observations indicate a significant rise in positive engagement metrics on recent posts.

  5. 17:49

    Uncertainty regarding actual reduction in bot traffic effectiveness

    The conclusion is that while it feels like bot traffic has decreased, studies measuring specific channels show little difference. The difficulty lies in measuring bots that amplify everyday narratives rather than obvious propaganda sources. Open conversation about the issue may help nullify some of their effectiveness.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Ukraine hit three of Russia's five largest operating data centers and the largest one under construction.

  • 2:15

    Flash memory prices are up more than 600% since September of last year due to global demand.

  • 7:08

    Russia's data centers housed three supercomputers needed to train Yandex AI models.

  • 8:52

    Russian law requires all citizen personal data be stored on servers physically located inside Russia.

  • 8:52

    Major cloud providers pulled back from Russia in 2022 following the full-scale invasion.

  • 11:45

    Russia spends billions of dollars on bots to influence public opinion overseas and elections.

  • 11:45

    Russian bots amplify divisive narratives to keep countries from opposing Russia on the international stage.

  • 13:25

    Personal observations indicate a significant rise in positive engagement metrics on recent posts.

On the map

Map of the places in “Ukraine Just Sent Russia Back to the Stone Age”

Who and where

Places · 8

  • Russia 66
  • Ukraine 19
  • Lithuania 1
  • United States 2
  • Autonomous Republic of Crimea 1
  • Kyiv 1
  • Kazakhstan 1
  • Europe 1

People · 3

  • Drawing of Mindaugas Sinkevičius

    Mindaugas Sinkevičius 1

    Lithuanian jurist and politician

    Photo 1

  • Drawing of Tucker Carlson

    Tucker Carlson 1

    American conservative political commentator (born 1969)

    Photo 2

  • Drawing of Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy 1

    President of Ukraine since 2019

    Photo 3

1. Photo: Saeima, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Mindaugas Sinkevičius)

2. Photo: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Tucker Carlson)

3. Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)

Organisations · 2

  • Yandex 5
  • United States National Security Council 1
Map of the places in “Russia’s Tech Companies Just Entered Full Panic Mode” 22:01

Russia’s Tech Companies Just Entered Full Panic Mode

Paul J. Warburg

Russia is facing a permanent, systemic crisis in its cloud infrastructure that will worsen over time due to destroyed capacity and lack of global redundancy. The true scale of the damage remains hidden because both cloud companies and the Russian government suppress negative information to protect their interests.

Map of the places in “Attacks on Russian Data Centers: It's Not About Bots” 4:58

Attacks on Russian Data Centers: It's Not About Bots

Peter Zeihan

If you pull the plug on that, send them back 40 years or more, you get some catastrophic outcomes. That's what's going on in Russia right now with the Ukraine war.

Map of the places in “Why I’m Not Worried About Ukraine Losing U.S. Support” 33:13

Why I’m Not Worried About Ukraine Losing U.S. Support

Paul J. Warburg

There are absolutely zero concerns that withdrawing U.S. support will create a catastrophe for Ukraine because the U.S. is not providing decisive aid. Public opinion creates a ceiling on how bad things can get, limiting U.S. actions against Ukraine.

39:38

The Ukraine War is About to Get MUCH Worse for Russia

Paul J. Warburg

The war is becoming more of a disaster for Russia every single day. There's a reason that President Zelensky, just a couple days before I recorded this video, sent a letter to Vladimir Putin taunting him, essentially saying exactly that, saying that Ukraine is ready for peace talks whenever Russia is.

Map of the places in “Russia Just Had Its Worst Day of the Entire War” 20:15

Russia Just Had Its Worst Day of the Entire War

Paul J. Warburg

Pro-Russian pressure from the United States actually hurts the Russians far more than the Ukrainians, and it really does seem that Russia can't possibly do anything to win the war. It is encouraging to know that Ukraine's strategy is definitely, definitely working.

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