Attacks on Russian Data Centers: It's Not About Bots

Peter Zeihan 5 min

If you pull the plug on that, send them back 40 years or more, you get some catastrophic outcomes. That's what's going on in Russia right now with the Ukraine war.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Real Impact of Data Center Attacks

    There has not been a meaningful decline in hate bots by the Russians despite active midterms. Seven of the largest data centers that Russia has have been hit and probably will not reopen anytime soon. When you start burning through data center capacity, a lot of these things that we just associated as background information in our everyday lives start to fail.

  2. 2:18

    Russia's Technological Regression

    The Russians jumped over a couple of stages of development from the 1960s to modern systems. If their data center sector goes away for whatever reason, they don't slip back to where they were in the 2000s. You're talking about them going back to, from an American point of view, relatively early industrial communications technologies. If you pull the plug on that, send them back 40 years or more, you get some catastrophic outcomes. The Russians don't have a lot of skilled labor left to maintain these systems. That's what's going on in Russia right now with the Ukraine war.

Key points

  • 0:00

    There has not been a meaningful decline in hate bots by the Russians.

  • 0:29

    Seven of the largest data centers that Russia has have been hit and probably will not reopen anytime soon.

  • 0:29

    When you start burning through data center capacity, a lot of these things that we just associated as background information in our everyday lives start to fail.

  • 0:29

    Unlike the United States, which literally has like 20,000 data centers, the Russians only have 200.

  • 2:49

    The intervening technology that the Americans, that the West was using in the 1970s and 80s and 90s and 2000s and 2010s, that doesn't exist.

  • 2:49

    If their data center sector goes away for whatever reason, they don't slip back to where they were in the 2000s.

  • 2:49

    You're talking about them going back to, from an American point of view, relatively early industrial communications technologies.

  • 4:14

    If you pull the plug on that, send them back 40 years or more, you get some catastrophic outcomes.

  • 4:14

    The Russians don't have a lot of skilled labor left.

  • 4:14

    They don't even really know how bad the situation is.

On the map

Map of the places in “Attacks on Russian Data Centers: It's Not About Bots”

Who and where

Places · 3

  • Russia 15
  • Ukraine 2
  • United States 9
Map of the places in “Ukraine Just Sent Russia Back to the Stone Age” 18:56

Ukraine Just Sent Russia Back to the Stone Age

Paul J. Warburg

Russia is definitely now going to get left behind even further than they already were. In either case, Russia's data center problem is massive, and it's quickly growing tendrils into other areas that Russia likely never anticipated.

Map of the places in “Russia’s Tech Companies Just Entered Full Panic Mode” 22:01

Russia’s Tech Companies Just Entered Full Panic Mode

Paul J. Warburg

Russia is facing a permanent, systemic crisis in its cloud infrastructure that will worsen over time due to destroyed capacity and lack of global redundancy. The true scale of the damage remains hidden because both cloud companies and the Russian government suppress negative information to protect their interests.

Map of the places in “Russian Soldiers are Suddenly Being Wiped Out Like Never Before” 25:25

Russian Soldiers are Suddenly Being Wiped Out Like Never Before

Paul J. Warburg

Russia is experiencing a catastrophic decline where casualty rates exceed recruitment and birth rates, leading to societal collapse. The war has eliminated any hope for Russia's demographic recovery and is running its society into the ground.

Map of the places in “Russia’s Population Collapse is Worse Than We Thought” 25:17

Russia’s Population Collapse is Worse Than We Thought

Paul J. Warburg

Vladimir Putin has a use-them-while-you've-got-them mentality. Once the war in Ukraine is over, it's going to seem like small cookies compared to what happens to Russia over the ensuing decades and generations.

Map of the places in “Russia Just Had Its Worst Day of the Entire War” 20:15

Russia Just Had Its Worst Day of the Entire War

Paul J. Warburg

Pro-Russian pressure from the United States actually hurts the Russians far more than the Ukrainians, and it really does seem that Russia can't possibly do anything to win the war. It is encouraging to know that Ukraine's strategy is definitely, definitely working.

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