A Break for Ukraine

Key points

• 0:00

  Donald Trump personally says that fairly soon the United States is going to be providing the Ukrainians with precision targeting information for the Russian energy system deep within the Russian Federation itself.

• 0:00

  The U.S. administration, not just this one, all of them going back at least until the 70s have always been a little paranoid about energy prices.

• 0:30

  That relationship has loosened quite a bit in the last 20 years, largely because of the Shale Revolution in the United States, which has taken the United States from the world's largest oil importer to the world's largest oil exporter.

• 0:30

  Well, the Biden administration shut that down because they were afraid of the impact that it was going to have on global energy prices.

• 0:30

  The Trump administration has been very erratic. In the early days, they were pathologically hostile to the Ukrainian government, up to and including inviting Zelensky to the White House just so they could yell at him.

• 2:35

  And the only people think that the Russians invaded because Biden was president are Trump, the people around him, and some mega hardcore folks.

• 2:35

  He has gutted the top of the National Security and Foreign Policy staff... He's not using the State Department. He's not using the National Security Council.

• 5:03

  So Witkoff has no foreign policy experience, and Trump basically entrusted him with the entire portfolio for all negotiations all over the world.

• 5:03

  And we started to get Trump looking at other bits of information... And he started to realize that he had been played the fool and that he was acting like a fool.

• 6:34

  The Ukrainians have started targeting Russian energy infrastructure again... And that number is now up to 40%.

• 6:34

  And then countries like Iran and China, which have been taking money from Russia and sending them drones and drone parts, will have to decide whether they want to directly subsidize the Russian government's war in Ukraine.

• 8:21

  Will this happen? That's entirely up to Donald Trump. He has changed his mind by my math 77 times since January 20th.

Related episodes

8:05

Why Trump's Stance on Ukraine Has Changed - Part 2

Peter Zeihan· 7 August 2025

Russia views this war as its last chance to survive and has more nukes than the US, making it dangerous to leave them unchecked. Trump is now directing policy against Putin after realizing he was being lied to, though the specific outcome remains uncertain.

8:24

What Happens After Trump and Putin Split?

Peter Zeihan· 23 July 2025

Donald Trump must either dedicate his entire presidency to the Ukraine issue or rebuild a competent government staff to avoid disastrous national security decisions. The current administration's lack of competent staff and reliance on uninformed advisors prevents effective policy implementation.

+1

7:45

The U.S. Helps India and Russia Helps Iran

Peter Zeihan· 16 March 2026

The Trump administration granted India temporary waivers to import Russian crude after Persian Gulf supplies were cut off. Meaningful policy change will not occur until pro-Russian advisors like Witkoff and Gabbard are removed.

10:25

Trump and Putin Split, Ukraine Gets Aid Again

Peter Zeihan· 21 July 2025

Trump's potential overreaction could trigger erratic military and economic policies that cause long-term problems. These actions will fall under the category of things that you wish for don't always go the way that you were hoping.

8:18

Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan to End the Ukraine War

Peter Zeihan· 2 December 2025

The plan forces Ukraine to never apply for NATO membership and enshrine that refusal into their constitution. I consider that a win.