Say Goodbye to the World's Trade Routes
Peter Zeihan
5 min
Globalization breaks down and military alliances fracture, causing multiple trade routes to face danger simultaneously. Middle East shipments look really bad, the Red Sea is not much better, and the Baltic is something to keep an eye on.
Chapters
-
0:00
The Southeast Asian Route
The speaker identifies the Southeast Asian route through Indonesia and Malaysia as the most likely to remain functional despite global instability.
-
1:33
The Persian Gulf Route
The speaker describes the Persian Gulf route as highly vulnerable to closure by regional powers due to missile capabilities and mutual hostility.
-
3:03
The Baltic Sea Route
The speaker warns that the Baltic Sea route depends on the outcome of the Ukraine war and future European stability.
Key points
- 0:00
The Southeast Asian route connects Northeast Asia with the rest of the Eurasian continent.
- 0:00
Fifteen countries in this region have their own ideas but lack the ability to project naval power far enough.
- 1:33
These nations see the world through similar lenses and occupy different parts of the manufacturing supply chain.
- 1:33
Japan might try to raid Chinese shipping but has no intention of shutting down shipping through the region as a whole.
- 1:33
The Persian Gulf route involves 20 million barrels a day of crude that could no longer make it to market if closed.
- 1:33
India and Pakistan would love to see the other one lose access to things like energy in a deglobalized world.
- 1:33
Iran, Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates might find it in their interest to close that entire route down.
- 3:03
The Baltic Sea has always been a zone of commerce but it's always been a zone of conflict.
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