A Peace Deal for Azerbaijan and Armenia?

Peter Zeihan 8 min

A successfully integrated Azerbaijan means a dead Armenia. The idea of putting 10,000 or 20,000 American troops on a landlocked chunk of territory surrounded by hostile powers with no supply lines, that's how you lose 10,000 or 20,000 troops.

  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Historical Context and Recent Conflict

    Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in a de facto state of war since the post-Soviet era, with Armenia controlling Nagorno-Karabakh until recently. The balance of power shifted as Azerbaijan's defense budget surpassed Armenia's GDP, aided by drone technology that allowed Azerbaijan to purge Armenian troops from occupied territories.

  2. 2:36

    Geopolitical Drivers and Russian Withdrawal

    The peace deal stems from Russia's diminished presence due to the Ukraine war, leaving Armenia without its security guarantor. With Iran losing leverage and Azerbaijan backed by Turkey, Armenia faces no other options but to negotiate.

  3. 4:49

    Geographic Vulnerability and The Trump Corridor

    Azerbaijan lacks a land corridor to Turkey, requiring it to cut through southern Armenia. This proposed 'Trump Corridor' would isolate Armenia from allies, effectively ending the state if successful.

  4. 7:21

    Economic Feasibility and Military Risks

    The corridor lacks an economic case as oil production is insufficient, and it relies on American troops for protection. Stationing 10,000 to 20,000 American troops in a landlocked area surrounded by hostile powers is strategically disastrous.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in a de facto state of war since the post-Soviet breakout.

  • 0:00

    Azerbaijan's defense budget is now more than total Armenian GDP.

  • 0:00

    Drone technology enabled Azerbaijan to defeat Armenians and purge troops from occupied territory.

  • 2:36

    Russia is pulling troops out of its military base in Armenia due to the Ukraine war.

  • 2:36

    Armenia has no other strategic assistance options besides Russia or Iran.

  • 2:36

    Iran has lost all of its leverage throughout the Middle East recently.

  • 2:36

    Azerbaijan and Turkey lobbied the Trump administration to get involved in the peace deal.

  • 4:49

    There is no land corridor that links Azerbaijan to Turkey and the rest of the West.

  • 4:49

    A successfully integrated Azerbaijan means a dead Armenia.

  • 4:49

    The proposed Trump Corridor will not be a wellspring of investment or contain a new oil pipeline.

  • 4:49

    Iranians and Russians will work against the corridor to maintain their influence in the Caucasus.

  • 7:21

    Stationing 10,000 or 20,000 American troops on a landlocked chunk of territory surrounded by hostile powers with no supply lines is how you lose 10,000 or 20,000 troops.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 3

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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