What's Up with the Middle East: Turkish Dominance

Peter Zeihan 9 min

The demographic situation for both the Russians, Ukrainians, and the Europeans is terminal. All we know for sure is Edarwan is committed to being the big man when everything breaks.

  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Turkey's Unique Power

    Turkey possesses an industrial base, GDP, and military that outperform every other country in the region combined.

  2. 0:31

    Turkey's Geographic Identity

    Turkey is not traditionally Middle Eastern, European, or part of any single specific sphere like the Caucasus or Balkans.

  3. 0:50

    Colliding Trends

    Two massive temporary trends are colliding: the Ukraine war and a European resurgence driven by US withdrawal. Both Russia and Europe face terminal demographic situations that will doom them regardless of the Ukraine war outcome.

  4. 2:50

    Historical Perspective

    Turkey has historically seen peripheral powers rise and fall due to demographics while maintaining its own stability.

  5. 3:39

    Erdoğan's Ambition

    President Erdoğan aims to become the dominant personality in Eurasia and potentially rule Turkey for life.

  6. 6:05

    Erdoğan's Legacy

    Erdoğan seeks to emulate Atatürk by unifying secular and religious factions into a single system under his control.

  7. 7:58

    Industrial Limitations

    Turkey's middle-tier industrial quality fails to compete with German goods for the wealthy or Asian goods for the poor.

  8. 8:48

    Final Commitment

    Erdoğan is committed to being the leader when all other systems break down due to these trends.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Turkey has an industrial base that outproduces every other country in the region combined.

  • 0:31

    It is not Middle Eastern in the traditional sense. It is not European in the traditional sense.

  • 0:50

    There are two massive trends going on to their north that are colliding with one another.

  • 0:50

    The demographic situation for both the Russians, Ukrainians, and the Europeans is terminal.

  • 2:50

    They've seen demographic decay on their borders going back to Roman times.

  • 3:39

    He is hoping that he will be the dominant personality in all of Eurasia in the not too distant future.

  • 6:05

    He basically grabbed both sides of that political argument by the ear and forced them into a single Mishmash timeywimy sort of singular system.

  • 7:58

    The Turks have a very solid industrial base, but it's kind of middle-tier for quality.

  • 8:48

    All we know for sure is Edarwan is committed to being the big man when everything breaks.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 1

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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