Will the Drought in Iran Cause Political Change?

Peter Zeihan 4 min

The short answer is probably not that this will cause political change. They're moving in the right direction in order to buy themselves more time.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Background on Iran's Population and Water Sources

    Iran experienced a population boom between 1940 and 1985, leading to concentration in the capital. Subsidies were removed after the Islamic revolution, concentrating people in Tehran where water comes from surface sources and aquifers.

  2. 0:49

    Current Drought Status and Sustainability

    Iran has faced drought for ten years with unsustainable water draw rates. Surface water is disappearing and aquifers are not recharging. The US faces similar issues in the Mountain West but hasn't reached a critical point yet that changes behavior. Political shifts usually occur only when taps run dry, which is not imminent for Iran despite worsening conditions. South Africa's 'Zero Day' showed that subsidized, corrupt systems can quickly change behavior through conservation rather than moving the capital.

  3. 2:28

    Feasibility of Moving the Capital

    Moving Tehran to other regions like the Caspian or northwest is culturally difficult or geographically unsuitable.

  4. 3:14

    Current Conservation Measures

    Iran is taking preliminary measures like cutting water pressure to 80% of people in the capital.

  5. 3:45

    Conclusion on Future Outlook

    Conservation is the easier path; Iran is moving in the right direction to buy more time.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Iran had a population boom between 1940 and 1985.

  • 0:00

    Population concentration now reaches 10 to 11 million in the capital.

  • 0:49

    One-third to one-half of Tehran's water comes from surface sources.

  • 0:49

    Iran has been in a degree of drought for 10 years.

  • 0:49

    The draw rate on aquifers is definitely not sustainable.

  • 0:49

    Political shifts usually happen only when taps run dry.

  • 0:49

    South Africa changed behavior quickly during its water crisis.

  • 2:28

    Moving the capital is not a viable option for Iran.

  • 3:14

    Iran has cut water pressure by over half for most people.

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