China's Alleged Nuclear Test

Peter Zeihan 7 min

The accusation lacks technical credibility and likely serves a political purpose rather than reflecting reality. The administration is pushing this line without sharing evidence with the wider world.

  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Accusation and Technical Details

    The Trump administration accuses China of a banned nuclear test in 2020, citing a seismic reading of 2.75 on the Richter scale. Experts question if a tiny bomb of that size could be contained underground without immense physical stress on construction. A bomb of such small size offers no strategic advantage over conventional explosives which are easier to manufacture and store.

  2. 2:21

    The Bunker Buster Theory

    The only potential use is as a bunker buster, but this targets the very system China possesses. No arms control expert believes it was a real test, leading to theories about plutonium triggers or political signaling.

  3. 4:17

    The Political Motivation

    The leading theory suggests Donald Trump wants to restart testing to push negotiations forward personally.

  4. 5:30

    Ineffectiveness of the Strategy

    Using nuclear tests for negotiation is historically ineffective unless the other side is already doing it. The only clear fact is that the White House is pushing this line without sharing evidence with the wider world.

Key points

  • 0:00

    The U.S. government accuses China of an unofficial and banned nuclear test back in 2020.

  • 0:00

    The seismic reading was a very low 2.75 on the Richter scale, comparable to fracking levels.

  • 0:00

    Containing such an explosion would require an underground cavity at least 100 feet wide and nearly 800 feet deep.

  • 0:00

    Modern nuclear bombs are typically in the tens to hundreds of kilotons or megaton range.

  • 2:21

    Conventional explosives are an order of magnitude easier to manufacture and store than nuclear weapons.

  • 2:21

    The only logical use for such a tiny bomb is as a bunker buster against hardened subterranean targets.

  • 2:21

    Hardened subterranean targets at scale are ironically the Chinese nuclear system itself.

  • 2:21

    There is not a single arms control expert on the planet who thinks this was an actual nuclear explosion.

  • 4:17

    The leading theory suggests Donald Trump personally wants to blow up nukes as examples to push negotiations forward.

  • 5:30

    Setting off nukes as a negotiating point is not a particularly effective negotiating strategy.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 3

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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