Finding Rare Earths in Japanese Mud

Peter Zeihan 5 min

The Japanese offshore rare earth project is unlikely to change production math due to low concentration and high costs. Japan will continue trying new technologies because it is the least resource-rich major power.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Japanese Offshore Project

    Peter Zeihan discusses the Minamito Oroshima project where Japan is dredging rare earths from the seafloor.

  2. 0:23

    Current Rare Earth Production Methods

    Zeihan explains that rare earths are typically extracted as byproducts from other mining operations. The Japanese deposit has lower concentration compared to existing mines in South Korea and Mountain Pass. Extracting from the seafloor requires bringing material up and drying it before processing.

  3. 2:34

    Economic Viability Requirements

    Prices must increase significantly for the Japanese project to become economically viable. China currently holds a monopoly on processing capacity, limiting access to rare earths. Japan remains the least resource-rich major power and must constantly try new technologies.

Key points

  • 0:23

    Rare earths are used in microscopic amounts but change electrical properties of many things.

  • 0:23

    There are 13 different rare earths used in varying concentrations and applications.

  • 0:23

    Rare earths are extracted from tailings of other mining operations like iron or copper.

  • 0:23

    Processing requires hundreds of vats of acid over several months to yield one ounce.

  • 0:23

    The Japanese deposit concentration is lower than South Korea and Mountain Pass mines.

  • 0:23

    Existing terrestrial deposits allow truck access and shovel mining unlike the seafloor deposit.

  • 0:23

    Seafloor extraction requires bringing material up, drying it, and then starting processing.

  • 2:34

    Economic viability requires a fifty or one hundred fold increase in rare earth prices.

  • 2:34

    China currently holds a lock on processing capacity limiting global access.

  • 2:34

    Japan remains the least resource-rich major power and must try new technologies.

Related episodes

Map of the places in “China Just Lost Its Best Chokehold On The Global Economy” 25:39

China Just Lost Its Best Chokehold On The Global Economy

Paul J. Warburg

China's long-term strategic hold on the global economy through rare earth metals is ending because its heavy rare earth supply is finite while other nations have untapped reserves. The geopolitical landscape is reversing as China faces a genuine supply shortage of heavy rare earths while the world develops alternatives.
Map of the places in “Project Vault Doesn't Solve the Mineral Problem” 3:04

Project Vault Doesn't Solve the Mineral Problem

Peter Zeihan

Project Vault fails to solve the mineral problem because most critical materials processing is done in China. Without diplomacy to secure resources from Canada, Australia, and Brazil, the initiative remains a rounding error.
3:38

Trump Announces $12B Rare Earth Stockpile

Peter Zeihan

A $12 billion stockpile is insufficient because true independence requires building domestic processing infrastructure which currently lacks funding. Today, we are building the equivalent of a piggy bank that we still have to fill up.
9:26

Rebuilding the American Industrial Base, Rare Earths Edition

Peter Zeihan

The United States must rebuild its industrial base to avoid collapse from Chinese leverage. The speaker concludes that rebuilding is essential because the current administration lacks the grip on core issues needed for the next world.
4:17

World's Largest Nuclear Plant Coming Back Online in Japan

Peter Zeihan

Japan's unique geography forces a redundant power system that allows it to survive global energy breakdowns. Japan is better positioned than other countries to handle future energy supply disruptions.

AI-generated summary · model qwen3.5:9b-12k · prompt version whole-3.window-7.combine-10.s-f4be8e · video id pf5WNAhhc2g · Watch on YouTube