Cuba Faces a Humanitarian Crisis

Peter Zeihan 5 min

Smashing the Cuban system creates a failed state requiring military intervention and a 20-year rebuilding program rather than partnership. Getting from here to there, especially with this intermediate step of smashing the place first, is definitely the harder, more expensive way to do it.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Energy Blockade

    Cuba faces a functional blockade cutting off fuel imports, leading to massive blackouts and potential societal collapse.

  2. 1:28

    The Humanitarian Catastrophe

    Without fuel, food production fails and rolling blackouts last over 20 hours daily, creating a humanitarian crisis. Overthrowing the government leaves the U.S. with a failed state requiring multi-year reconstruction or facing massive migration. An industrialized system designed for 10 million people cannot support that population without imported food and energy.

  3. 3:51

    The Strategic Mistake

    Smashing the current system creates a need for military intervention and a 20-year rebuilding program rather than partnership.

Key points

  • 0:24

    Domestic energy production is very, very, very low.

  • 0:24

    They need 100 times the amount of electricity they can get from alternatives like solar.

  • 0:24

    Fuel oil used to come from Venezuela but has gone to zero.

  • 0:41

    The U.S. Navy now allows only one vessel to come in for fuel oil.

  • 0:41

    Rolling blackouts throughout the country oftentimes last more than 20 hours a day.

  • 0:41

    In Havana, there have been several days already this month where they've had 22-hour blackouts.

  • 1:28

    The hope of the American administration is that energy loss will trigger mass protests.

  • 1:28

    There is not a lot of outside support from the United States coming to help them.

  • 1:28

    You're talking about a ground-up reconstruction of the entire system that will be required because agriculture has failed and industry has failed.

  • 1:28

    An industrialized system designed to produce sugar for export cannot support 10 million people without imports.

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