Cuba Is Running Out of Time

Peter Zeihan 5 min

Removing Venezuela's energy support will trigger a prolonged crisis and potential government collapse in Cuba. Regardless of details, there is going to be a show soon due to the fuel shortage.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Cuba's Energy Vulnerability

    The video explains Cuba's reliance on Venezuelan energy and the resulting crisis.

  2. 0:48

    Logistical Barriers to Fuel Imports

    The video details why importing fuel from other regions is impractical for Cuba. The video reports Cuba's current inability to refuel airlines due to lack of aviation fuel. The video argues China and Russia cannot provide sufficient fuel support to Cuba. The video suggests an energy shortage could trigger the end of the Cuban government. Restoring energy will not fix the underlying structural problems.

  3. 3:03

    Increased Migration Pressure

    The video predicts massive migration from Cuba if economic conditions worsen further. The situation will lead to a long-term rolling crisis.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Cuba gets almost all of its energy products from Venezuela at reduced rates.

  • 0:00

    Removing Venezuela creates an immediate energy crisis for Cuba.

  • 0:00

    Open market fuel costs at least twice as much as Venezuelan supplies.

  • 0:48

    Importing fuel from outside the region requires a month-long transit time.

  • 0:48

    Cuba told all airlines they could not refuel at all in Havana recently.

  • 0:48

    Getting a tanker across the Atlantic is not a viable option for Cuba.

  • 0:48

    China cannot supply fuel due to distance and Panama Canal control issues.

  • 0:48

    Russia lacks capacity to ship refined product due to ongoing war shortages.

  • 0:48

    An energy-based collapse will cause significant degradation of any new government's ability to hold together.

  • 3:03

    Turning off lights and power will trigger massive waves of migration from Cuba.

  • 3:03

    The situation marks the beginning of a protracted rolling crisis for the region.

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