Key Economic Indicators to Watch: Retail Sales

Peter Zeihan 4 min

Retail sales provide a relatively accurate picture of consumer spending but must be viewed as one factor among many. The statistic is an estimate, somewhat backward looking, and doesn't give the whole picture, but it's better than nothing.

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Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Retail Sales Overview

    Retail sales represent roughly 65 to 70 percent of the American economy based on consumer activity. Retail sales exclude business-to-business transactions, health care, and housing expenses.

  2. 2:11

    Data Lag and Estimation

    The statistic is an estimate based on surveys that takes about six to seven weeks to finalize.

  3. 2:27

    Recent Tariff Impact

    High tariffs in April and May suppressed activity until they were removed in June.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Retail sales represent roughly 65 to 70 percent of the American economy based on consumer activity.

  • 0:00

    The statistic excludes business-to-business transactions, health care, and housing expenses.

  • 2:11

    Retail sales data is an estimate based on surveys that takes about six to seven weeks to finalize.

  • 2:27

    High tariffs in April and May suppressed activity until they were removed in June.

  • 2:27

    June data showed strong expansion of retail activity after two months of negative growth.

  • 0:00

    The statistic does not include any sort of business activity between businesses.

  • 0:00

    Industrial construction spending must be watched separately to track manufacturing slowdowns.

  • 2:27

    By the time data arrives in September, it reflects events from mid-July regarding August tariff changes.

Who and where

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    Donald Trump 2

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

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1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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