The U.S. Dollar: Short vs. Long Term

Peter Zeihan 12 min

The U.S. dollar will rise over decades due to structural strengths but drop in the short term due to active policy choices. The result is at the moment, in a moment of global crisis, surprisingly small gains for the US dollar.

  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Long-Term Dollar Strength

    The U.S. dollar will rise for decades due to military dominance, demographics, resources, and manufacturing expansion needs.

  2. 3:18

    Short-Term Dollar Weakness

    Current policies like immigration bans, tariffs, regulatory chaos, and lawlessness are pushing the dollar down now.

  3. 8:08

    Recent Market Reaction

    The Iran war caused a temporary surge, but markets remain hesitant due to distrust of U.S. policies.

Key points

  • 0:00

    The U.S. military rules the seas and no other nation can challenge it.

  • 1:00

    The U.S. has a stable demographic story with millennials in their consumption and production years.

  • 1:00

    The U.S. is a massive exporter of food and energy products.

  • 1:00

    The U.S. must double its manufacturing footprint to prepare for China's decline.

  • 3:18

    Immigration bans have turned the U.S. into a country with near-bottom population growth.

  • 3:37

    Tariffs make complex manufacturing difficult and force industrial spending to drop.

  • 7:02

    Business confidence, business activity, and business expansion are all dropping instead of rising.

  • 7:20

    Federal law enforcement operates without regard for rule of law or legal constraints.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 4

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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