"Made in China" Becomes "Made in Vietnam"

Peter Zeihan 9 min

Vietnam offers a viable manufacturing alternative to China but faces administrative hurdles if targeted with specific tariffs. The speaker gives Vietnam an A for effort and a D for approach.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Rise of Vietnam

    Vietnam has become a top choice for manufacturing due to its proximity to China, high STEM workforce, and ambitious educational investments.

  2. 5:35

    Vietnam vs. Mexico

    Vietnam functions like China with clustered secondary manufacturing centers, whereas Mexico operates as isolated desert cities handling single products.

  3. 6:44

    Trans-shipment Risks

    Some trade involves Chinese goods being finished in Vietnam before shipping to the US, a practice that requires careful tariff differentiation. Differentiating tariffs between legitimate and trans-shipment goods requires administrative capacity that the current US government lacks.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Vietnam has become a top choice for manufacturing due to its proximity to China.

  • 0:00

    Roughly 40% of college graduates from Vietnam are STEM graduates.

  • 0:00

    Vietnam possesses a large workforce roughly one-third the size of Mexico's.

  • 2:19

    Vietnam aims to leapfrog China by focusing on high-value added manufacturing.

  • 2:42

    Vietnam's economy clusters secondary manufacturing centers around major population hubs.

  • 3:48

    Mexican cities are isolated desert hubs where entire products are made locally.

  • 5:35

    The Mexican strategy works better in a world with fewer global connections.

  • 6:44

    Some Vietnamese trade involves Chinese goods being finished before shipping to the US.

  • 6:44

    A two-tiered tariff system is proposed but lacks necessary administrative capacity.

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