Tariff Spotlight: Vietnam

Peter Zeihan 6 min

The Trump administration's tariff on Vietnam is based on manufactured data and incompetent advisors, destroying a vital supply chain partnership. The tariffs will cause extreme pain and undo years of successful efforts to diversify supply chains away from China.

  • Donald Trump
  • Barack Obama

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Tariff Announcement

    Vietnam received a 46% tariff increase announced by the Trump administration.

  2. 0:23

    Flawed Calculation Method

    The tariff number was derived from trade deficits divided by exports without studying actual barriers. Trump fired knowledgeable staff and surrounded himself with people who do not know what is happening.

  3. 1:53

    Incompetent Advisors

    Key advisors like Navarro and Lutnick lack real-world experience or tell Trump what he wants to hear.

  4. 3:22

    Manufactured Data

    The high tariff rate results from manufactured data rather than actual trade realities. American firms successfully built industrial plants in Vietnam to diversify supply chains away from China. Vietnam's current trade deficit exists because the country is not wealthy enough yet to buy American products. The tariffs complicate and cause pain for a partnership that is essential for future American security.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Vietnam received a 46% tariff increase announced by the Trump administration.

  • 0:23

    The tariff number was derived from trade deficits divided by exports without studying actual barriers.

  • 0:23

    Trump fired knowledgeable staff and surrounded himself with people who do not know what is happening.

  • 1:53

    Key advisors like Navarro and Lutnick lack real-world experience or tell Trump what he wants to hear.

  • 3:22

    The high tariff rate results from manufactured data rather than actual trade realities.

  • 3:22

    American firms successfully built industrial plants in Vietnam to diversify supply chains away from China.

  • 3:22

    Vietnam's current trade deficit exists because the country is not wealthy enough yet to buy American products.

  • 3:22

    The tariffs complicate and cause pain for a partnership that is essential for future American security.

Who and where

People · 2

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 8

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

  • Drawing of Barack Obama

    Barack Obama 1

    44th President of the United States (2009–2017)

    Photo 2

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

2. Photo: Official White House Photo by Pete Souza, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Barack Obama)

8:09

How Was Trump's Trip to Asia?

Peter Zeihan

Trade relationships with aging nations must eventually go to zero regardless of political reasons. The back and forth and the ebb and flow continues without final resolution.

6:40

Trump’s Tariffs: Reciprocal Edition + Live Q&A

Peter Zeihan

The new tariffs will wreck the relationship with Southeast Asia and cause a year-long recession. We are easily looking at a recession that is going to last a year.

6:29

You Mess with the Don, You Get the Tariffs

Peter Zeihan

Secondary tariffs on crude oil buyers could force China out of the electronics supply chain. We are definitely moving into a deglobalized world and need different tools than we have used for eighty years.

6:27

Coping Mechanisms 101: The "TACO" Trade

Peter Zeihan

The United States faces an institutional crisis because the administration makes trade policy based on whim rather than data or legal authority. Expect nothing but more confusion as everyone tries to figure out what is happening while the floor keeps shifting under all of us.

8:18

The Fire Hose of Chaos: Corruption

Peter Zeihan

The current system forces American importers and businesses to bribe the people who do spot checks. Arbitrary policies imposed by tweet will cause an erosion of rule of law throughout the corporate world.

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