Syria Turns Violent...Again

Peter Zeihan 7 min

The Syrian desert is inherently unstable, and without strong state control or deep US intervention, ISIS will grow stronger. Expect continued chaos in Syria unless an outside power gets deeply involved.

  • Bashar al-Assad

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Current Violence and US Presence

    Recent violence in Syria includes a gunman shooting American soldiers, raising questions about continued US involvement despite previous withdrawals.

  2. 1:52

    The Nature of the Syrian Desert

    The region west of the Tigris and Euphrates is a resource-poor no-man's land where civilization is thin. When states like Iraq or Syria are weak, this desert area becomes a zone for militancy and problems. ISIS represents the latest generation of issues in an area where instability has existed for 6,000 years. Strong states like Iraq or Turkey can project power into these barrens to keep them under control.

  3. 3:44

    US Strategic Withdrawal

    The US left Iraq and consolidated its position, but the fall of Assad broke Syria's ability to patrol the desert.

  4. 6:03

    Turkey as the Primary Solution

    Long-term stability requires Turkey to intervene, though they have competing interests in other regions like Ukraine and Greece.

  5. 6:33

    Expectation of Continued Chaos

    Without deep outside involvement, Syria will remain chaotic, and ISIS will likely grow stronger over time.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Recent violence in Syria includes a gunman shooting American soldiers.

  • 0:16

    The US maintains special forces to keep ISIS in check despite previous withdrawals.

  • 1:52

    The desert west of the Tigris and Euphrates is a resource-poor no-man's land.

  • 1:52

    Weak states cause this area to metastasize into a zone for militancy.

  • 1:52

    ISIS is the latest generation of problems in an area unstable for 6,000 years.

  • 1:52

    Strong states like Iraq or Turkey can project power to control these barrens.

  • 6:03

    Turkey is the likely long-term solution but has competing interests elsewhere.

  • 6:33

    Expect more violence as ISIS grows stronger without deep outside involvement.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Bashar al-Assad

    Bashar al-Assad 4

    Syrian convicted fugitive and former President of Syria from 2000 to 2024

    Photo 1

1. Photo: khamenei.ir, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Bashar al-Assad)

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