The Beginning of the End of the Shadow Fleet

Peter Zeihan 6 min

The collapse of the Shadow Fleet will cause a multi-phase shock hitting transport and production in at least two countries. Europeans will come up with something much more appropriate to their tool set for interdiction.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Shadow Fleet and Sanctions

    An overview of the Shadow Fleet's role in transporting sanctioned oil and the current threats facing it. Details on how Ukraine is using drones to attack the Shadow Fleet in various locations.

  2. 2:27

    Russian Military Use and Collapse

    The discovery of Russian military personnel on a Shadow Fleet vessel and the resulting strategic shift.

Key points

  • 0:00

    The Shadow Fleet now has over a thousand vessels worldwide.

  • 0:00

    The United States has confiscated three tankers, removing roughly a million barrels a day from Venezuela.

  • 0:00

    Ukraine recently took out a pair of shadow fleet tankers in the Black Sea.

  • 0:00

    Ukraine attacked patrol ships in the Caspian Sea, near Russia.

  • 0:00

    Ukraine almost sank a vessel in Rostov Adan, a Russian port.

  • 0:00

    Insurance companies are unlikely to pay claims because the operations are functionally illegal.

  • 2:27

    Ship captains face real risk of losing their vessels, dissuading them from sailing.

  • 2:27

    Swedish authorities discovered Russian military personnel on a broken-down Shadow Fleet vessel.

  • 2:27

    Russia treats the Shadow Fleet like a strategic asset that will be countered as such.

  • 2:27

    Removing a thousand tankers causes a severe tanker shortage and dries up crude prices.

  • 3:27

    Venezuela faces months or years to get Orinoco heavy sour production back online.

  • 3:27

    Russia may shut down northern Siberian fields in winter, taking years to redrill.

  • 3:27

    Europeans feel they must shut the fleet down for both military and economic purposes.

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