What's Up with the Middle East: Syrian Dysfunction

Peter Zeihan 6 min

Syria will not form a stable government because external powers prefer chaos over consolidation. Anarchy is the best outcome Syria will achieve.

  • Bashar al-Assad
  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Syria's Internal Fragmentation

    The new Syrian government controls most territory but faces deep internal divisions that prevent long-term stability.

  2. 0:39

    Loss of External Stabilizers

    Russia and Iran no longer support Damascus, while the US and EU offer aid only if conditions outside government control are met.

  3. 3:16

    Regional Powers' Interests

    Turkey and Israel prefer a failed state to maintain freedom of action against Kurdish and other insurgent groups. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE support different factions and wait for a security plan before investing. If the new government consolidates power, Turkey and Israel will immediately take military action.

Key points

  • 0:39

    The new Syrian leader inherited core problems without advantages.

  • 0:39

    Syria consists of six distinct regions with no unity.

  • 0:39

    Russia and Iran stopped backing the central government.

  • 2:54

    US and EU aid depends on factors outside government control.

  • 3:16

    Turkey and Israel benefit from Syria as a failed state.

  • 3:16

    Gulf states wait for a security plan before helping.

  • 3:16

    Turkey and Israel will act if the government consolidates.

  • 5:32

    Anarchy is the likely outcome for Syria.

Who and where

People · 2

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 2

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

  • Drawing of Bashar al-Assad

    Bashar al-Assad 1

    Syrian convicted fugitive and former President of Syria from 2000 to 2024

    Photo 2

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

2. Photo: khamenei.ir, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Bashar al-Assad)

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