The New Ukraine Proxy War

Peter Zeihan 7 min

The war has evolved into a proxy conflict between Europe and China. The United States is failing to keep pace with the changing rules of war.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Russian Equipment Depletion

    The Russian military has exhausted its pre-war stock of tanks and armored vehicles, forcing a shift toward infantry-based tactics and horse charges due to manufacturing shortages.

  2. 2:51

    Shift in Russian Tactics

    Lacking heavy armor, Russia employs slow infiltration strategies with small groups, resulting in high casualty rates that exceed birth rates. The conflict has evolved into a proxy war where Europe supplies Ukraine while China supports Russia, creating a direct geopolitical rivalry between them.

  3. 6:26

    US Technological Lag

    The United States is falling behind in drone technology and innovation, stepping back while Europe reorganizes its military structure to support Ukraine.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Russia has lost nearly all pre-war tanks and can only produce a few per month.

  • 0:00

    Horse charges are reappearing on the front because civilian vehicles are unavailable.

  • 2:01

    Russia is sending small groups of men to infiltrate zones rather than large armored units.

  • 2:51

    Russian casualty rates have risen to approximately 1,500 to 1,600 people per day.

  • 2:51

    Russia is losing men faster than it can replace them through births.

  • 2:51

    Russia has exhausted its non-ethnic Russian population for military service.

  • 2:51

    Europe is providing Ukraine with significantly more military and economic aid than the United States.

  • 2:51

    The conflict has become a direct proxy war between Europe and China.

  • 5:13

    China is supplying most of the new hardware entering the Russian system.

  • 6:26

    The United States is no longer leading in drone technology or jamming capabilities.

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