The Russian Breakdown
Peter Zeihan
5 min
Russia will not immediately fall if it loses Ukraine, but long-term demographic shifts guarantee its eventual collapse. The end of the Russian Federation before the end of the century is pretty much certain.
Chapters
Key points
- 0:00
Russia has at least 70% ethnic Russian population.
- 1:12
Young people are absent due to low birth rates and war casualties.
- 2:02
The military cannot suppress domestic rebellion if borders become too long.
- 2:02
Internal security services can handle isolated rebellions in minority regions.
- 2:02
Soviet collapse involved many non-Russian republics rebelling simultaneously.
- 2:02
Post-Ukraine Russia is more ethnically homogenous than the Soviet Union.
- 2:02
Western nations will pressure Russia to stay off balance after Ukraine wins.
- 2:02
Russia faces slow-motion decline regardless of the war outcome.
- 4:28
Internal disintegration depends on external pressure starting after 2050.
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