Why Trump's Stance on Ukraine Has Changed - Part 1

Peter Zeihan 7 min

The war happened because of how the Russians view their world. This is just the next phase of Putin's plan, of the Russian plan, that, if anything, was written 500 years ago.

  • Vladimir Putin
  • Donald Trump
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Russian Imperial Strategy

    The speaker explains that Russia is not a nation-state but an empire that expands until it hits geographic barriers like mountains or seas, using conquered peoples as cannon fodder to achieve physical security. The speaker details how urbanization and economic hardship caused birth rates to drop by 80% in two generations, leaving Russia with a dying population that cannot sustain an army or control subject peoples.

  2. 3:26

    The End of Military Expansion

    The speaker argues that the late 2020s marks the final window for Russia to attempt a military solution, as it lacks enough ethnic Russian men and subject peoples to generate a large conscript army.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Russia expands until it hits geographic barriers that stop tanks.

  • 0:00

    The Soviet Union held the most secure borders in Russian history.

  • 2:27

    Russia is a multi-ethnic empire where non-Russian groups serve as ballast and cannon fodder.

  • 3:26

    Urbanization under Stalin and Brezhnev caused birth rates to drop by 80% in two generations.

  • 3:26

    The Russian population today is the least healthy in the world.

  • 3:26

    The actual ethnicity of Russians is vanishing due to low birth rates.

  • 3:26

    Russia tried to expand cheaply through coups and assassinations in the 2000s and 2010s.

  • 3:26

    Russia could never convince the majority of subject peoples to serve its goals.

  • 3:26

    Color revolutions occurred because people rose up to throw off pro-Russian puppets.

  • 3:26

    Russia lacks enough ethnic Russian men in their 20s to field an army.

  • 3:26

    The late 2020s is the last period where a military solution could happen for Russia.

  • 6:08

    If Ukraine falls, conflicts will spread to Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan.

Who and where

People · 3

  • Drawing of Vladimir Putin

    Vladimir Putin 3

    President of the Russian Federation

    Photo 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 2

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 2

  • Drawing of Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy 1

    President of Ukraine since 2019

    Photo 3

1. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

2. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

3. Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)

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