The Semiconductor Frontier

Peter Zeihan 6 min

The semiconductor industry faces a critical juncture where new technology could either revive Intel or leave it as a solid second-best player, all while remaining dangerously dependent on fragile global supply chains. While there is a little sliver of hope that high numerical aperture technology might simplify supply chains, the industry remains overextended and threatened.

  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The New EUV Machine

    A new high numerical aperture machine allows etching below one nanometer, potentially doubling processing power compared to current three-nanometer limits.

  2. 0:56

    Intel's High-Stakes Bet

    Intel is betting its future on this new technology while TSMC reserves the right to buy only one, aiming to regain industry leadership.

  3. 2:25

    The Testing Phase

    Mass manufacturing will not begin until late 2026, with significant industrial build-out and chip redesign required before 2029 or 2030.

  4. 3:07

    The Korean Factor

    SK Hynix and Samsung lead memory chip production, but the drama between Intel and TSMC regarding processors is far more significant. If the technology fails, Intel remains a solid second-best manufacturer with more supply chain steps under its own roof than TSMC. Success creates a new frontier without displacing TSMC, which continues making the chips that enable today's silicon revolution. Making a high-end semiconductor currently requires 100,000 supply chain steps, and it would be strange if the new technology simplified this.

  5. 5:14

    Globalization Threats

    The industry is overextended and dependent on globalization, facing threats from tariffs, demographic crashes, and potential supply chain simplification.

Key points

  • 0:33

    The new high numerical aperture machine can etch semiconductors below one nanometer.

  • 0:56

    Intel is betting its future on this new technology while TSMC only reserves the right to buy one machine.

  • 2:25

    Mass manufacturing will not begin until late 2026, with significant industrial build-out required before 2029 or 2030.

  • 3:07

    SK Hynix and Samsung lead memory chip production, but the drama between Intel and TSMC is far more significant.

  • 3:07

    Success creates a new frontier without displacing TSMC, which continues making the chips that enable today's silicon revolution.

  • 3:07

    Making a high-end semiconductor currently requires 100,000 supply chain steps, and it would be strange if the new technology simplified this.

  • 5:14

    The industry is overextended and dependent on globalization, facing threats from tariffs, demographic crashes, and potential supply chain simplification.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 1

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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