Ukraine Targets the CPC in Recent Drone Strikes

Peter Zeihan 5 min

Combined attacks on Black Sea and Baltic routes approach the upper limit of removable global oil flow. Calendar year 2026 is predicted to start with a major energy disruption.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Ukraine Targets CPC Assets

    Ukraine attacks Russian energy infrastructure including the Caspian Pipeline Consortium loading buoy at the port of Novorossiysk.

  2. 2:19

    Shadow Fleet Disruption

    Ukraine targets shadow fleet vessels in the Black Sea, making it a no-go zone for Russian oil exports.

  3. 4:36

    Global Supply Limits

    Combined attacks on Black Sea and Baltic routes approach the upper limit of removable global oil flow.

  4. 5:07

    2026 Outlook

    The speaker predicts a significant disruption in global energy markets starting in calendar year 2026.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Ukraine hit a loading buoy belonging to the CPC consortium.

  • 0:00

    The CPC operates the Tengiz Superfield on the Caspian Sea.

  • 0:00

    The CPC handles roughly 75 to 80 percent of total Kazakh oil exports.

  • 0:00

    Ukraine targets both Russian crude and CPC crude at Novorossiysk.

  • 2:19

    Ukraine deliberately targeted shadow fleet vessels in the Black Sea.

  • 2:19

    The entire Black Sea becomes a no-go zone for shadow fleet tankers.

  • 2:19

    Attacks could remove 2 to 3 million barrels of daily flow.

  • 2:19

    Russian oil experts face challenges near St. Petersburg, Novorossiysk, and Vladivostok.

  • 2:19

    European assistance could shut down two-thirds to three-quarters of Russian exports.

  • 4:36

    Combined Black Sea and Baltic closures approach global flow limits.

  • 5:07

    Calendar year 2026 is predicted to start with a major energy disruption.

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