Will New Zealand Dive or Thrive?

Peter Zeihan 8 min

New Zealand must adapt its agriculture and align with either the United States or Southeast Asia to thrive. The Kiwis have shown time and time again that change is something that they can handle.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    New Zealand's Protected Export Dilemma

    New Zealand specializes in dairy, sheep, and wine, but these sectors are heavily protected globally, making exports difficult as globalization fades.

  2. 2:05

    The Necessity of US Security Cooperation

    Since the US lacks shortages of New Zealand's products, future trade depends on security cooperation rather than just agricultural exports.

  3. 5:14

    Historical Adaptability as a Key Strength

    New Zealand has successfully transformed its economy multiple times, from serving the British Empire to focusing on dairy and wine.

  4. 5:56

    Strategic Paths: NAFTA or Southeast Asia

    New Zealand must either join the US-led trade system or pivot its agriculture toward industrializing Southeast Asian nations.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Dairy is arguably the most protected sector in the world because liquid milk spoils before export.

  • 2:05

    New Zealand must provide security cooperation since the US has no shortage of wine or sheep.

  • 2:05

    Joining the NAFTA system requires becoming a loyal ally like Australia did fifty years ago.

  • 3:09

    New Zealand cannot change its position on nuclear weapons to gain US trade inclusion.

  • 3:09

    Global disruption will cause a shortage of wheat as specialized inputs become unavailable.

  • 3:09

    Shifting from dairy to wheat represents a significant drop in competitive advantage for New Zealand.

  • 5:56

    Southeast Asian nations will need to import food as they industrialize and urbanize.

  • 5:56

    New Zealand is closer to Southeast Asia than the US, giving it a market advantage.

  • 5:14

    New Zealand has handled economic transformations before, from serving the British Empire to dairy.

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