Trump’s Tariffs: Reciprocal Edition + Live Q&A
Peter Zeihan
7 min
The new tariffs will wreck the relationship with Southeast Asia and cause a year-long recession. We are easily looking at a recession that is going to last a year.
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Donald Trump
Chapters
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0:00
Initial Tariff Announcements
Trump lists reciprocal tariffs on about 50 countries with more expected soon.
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0:34
Western Hemisphere Impact
Low tariffs in the Americas raise costs but do not force production moves. A 25% tariff on automotive products and a 20% tariff on Europe raise prices.
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1:55
East Asian Supply Chain Risks
High tariffs on Japan, Korea, and Taiwan disrupt the semiconductor supply chain. Tariffs on Vietnam and other Southeast Asian nations wreck the China-diversion strategy.
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4:04
China Tariffs and Recession
Starting at 34%, China tariffs could reach 79% or higher, causing a year-long recession. The process of reindustrialization will take 12 to 20 years with much higher costs.
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5:39
Future Tariff Threats
The current measures are only phase one, with much more coming soon.
Key points
- 0:00
Donald Trump has listed what he calls reciprocal tariffs on about 50 countries.
- 0:34
Most Western Hemisphere tariffs are about 10%.
- 0:34
A 25% tariff applies to all automotive products unless built in the United States from American parts.
- 0:34
Europe faces a 20% tariff on its exports.
- 1:55
Tariffs on Cambodia reach as high as 45%.
- 1:55
Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asian countries face tariffs of 25% or higher.
- 1:55
Vietnam faces a 46% tariff which wrecks the relationship overall.
- 4:04
China tariffs start at 34% and could reach 79% or higher depending on the product.
- 4:04
The economic process will take a 12 to 20-year period with much more expensive goods.
- 5:39
This is only phase one, and much more is coming down the pipe.
Who and where
People · 1
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Donald Trump 4
President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Photo 1
1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)
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