Russia is Completely Folding Right Now

Paul J. Warburg 29 min

Russia's air defenses have never been weaker, and they continue to get weaker every single day. Right now, the war is going in a very, very clear direction.

  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy
  • Vladimir Putin
  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Scale of the Current Campaign

    A historic shift in warfare is occurring, with Ukraine cutting off Crimea from essential supplies.

  2. 1:09

    The Effectiveness of Deep Strikes

    Ukraine is hitting more important targets than ever and taking them offline for months.

  3. 3:39

    The Shift in Strategic Dynamics

    Russia's air defenses have never been weaker and continue to get weaker every single day.

  4. 14:52

    The Data Behind the Trend

    Ukraine's successful long-range strikes against critical Russian targets were about double what they've been in any previous month.

  5. 18:50

    The Drone Production Surge

    This year, Ukraine is expected to produce 7 million drone units.

  6. 24:10

    The Flip in Aid Dynamics

    Ukraine is now the provider rather than the recipient of military technology and military aid.

  7. 26:42

    The Strategic Advantage

    Every target that Ukraine strikes on Russian territory reduces the amount of offense that the Russians can do against them.

  8. 27:30

    The Future Outlook

    If the Russians had any common sense, they would surrender now.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Something big is happening in the war in Ukraine right now that we've never quite seen before.

  • 0:41

    Ukraine has cut off Crimea from food, fuel, electricity, and military supplies.

  • 0:41

    Queues of people trying to leave Crimea are up to 10 hours long.

  • 1:09

    Ukraine is striking more important targets than ever before and taking them offline for months.

  • 1:09

    Ukraine has forced Russia into a pattern of response with tough choices regarding air defense systems.

  • 3:39

    Russia's air defenses have never been weaker and continue to get weaker every single day.

  • 3:39

    Ukraine has grown in experience and technology while simultaneously grinding down Russian air defense systems.

  • 14:52

    Ukraine's successful long-range strikes against critical Russian targets were about double what they've been in any previous month.

  • 18:50

    This year, Ukraine is expected to produce 7 million drone units.

  • 24:10

    Ukraine is now the provider rather than the recipient of military technology and military aid.

  • 26:42

    Every target that Ukraine strikes on Russian territory reduces the amount of offense that the Russians can do against them.

  • 27:30

    If the Russians had any common sense, they would surrender now.

Who and where

People · 3

  • Drawing of Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy 3

    President of Ukraine since 2019

    Photo 1

  • Drawing of Vladimir Putin

    Vladimir Putin 3

    President of the Russian Federation

    Photo 2

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 3

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 3

1. Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)

2. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

3. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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AI-generated summary · model qwen3.5:9b-12k · prompt version whole-3.window-7.combine-10.s-f4be8e · video id Zb2APqGrGEw · Watch on YouTube