Putin's Closest Ally Just Betrayed Him

Paul J. Warburg 25 June 202621 min

Lukashenko's military buildup is intended to protect his regime and internal power rather than to attack Ukraine. It is more likely that Lukashenko is preparing for a potential attack by Ukraine to maintain his power.

Vladimir Putin
Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Chapters

0:00
The Tide of War and Lukashenko's Shift

The perception of the war in Ukraine has changed dramatically, with growing consensus that Russia cannot win. Even the Trump administration and Belarusian leader Lukashenko have shifted their stance, admitting Russia may lose militarily.
2:22
Lukashenko's Admission of Defeat

Lukashenko admitted that Belarus, with Russian forces, could not defend itself against a potential Ukrainian attack if a new front opened. Ukraine forced Lukashenko to choose sides by threatening Belarusian relay stations used for drone attacks. Lukashenko appeased Ukraine by stopping these stations.
7:22
The Real Reason for Militarization

Lukashenko's military buildup is not to attack Ukraine but to protect his regime internally as he fears losing power if Russia falls.
8:47
Lukashenko's Lack of Popular Support

Lukashenko lost his last election and relies on Russian special forces to stay in power, making him dependent on Russia for his survival.
11:51
Contradiction with Dictator Behavior

Unlike Putin, Lukashenko admits defeat and seeks sanctions relief from the US, contradicting the behavior of a dictator preparing for war.
13:15
Hedging Bets with International Partners

Lukashenko is releasing political prisoners to gain sanctions relief from the US, showing he is hedging bets rather than committing to war.
17:17
The People's Desire vs. The Dictator's Fear

The Belarusian people view Ukraine as a sister country and have fought on its side, creating a risk for Lukashenko if Russia loses. Lukashenko builds up his military to radicalize the population and maintain control, fearing rebellion if he loses his external protector.
19:47
The Most Likely Scenario

Lukashenko is preparing for a potential attack by Ukraine to maintain his power, not to attack Ukraine himself.
20:41
The Outcome for Russia

The situation is leading towards an outcome that is much worse for Russia than previously anticipated.

Key points

0:00
The perception of the war in Ukraine has changed dramatically over just the past month or so
0:00
Even the Trump administration now says that actually Ukraine is doing a good job and what they're doing is quite impressive
0:00
Lukashenko admitted that Russia could not win the war militarily
2:22
Belarus, with Russian forces, could not defend itself against a potential Ukrainian attack
2:22
Zelensky told Belarus that they now had seven days to turn off those relay stations
7:22
When it comes to dictatorships, wherever they are across the globe, when they militarize, far more often than not, those militaries are intended to protect their regime and their internal power
8:47
Lukashenko is in power because after he lost his last election, Russia sent in special military police
13:15
We see Lukashenko releasing political prisoners in exchange, for example, for sanctions relief from the United States
17:17
Generally speaking, the people of Belarus view Ukraine as a sister country, not one they're willing to fight against
17:17
There is also the fact that militaries have often been the favorite vehicle of dictators to radicalize the people
19:47
It is more likely, in my opinion, that he is preparing to be attacked by Ukraine
20:41
But in reality, it seems like we're going towards a different outcome, one that is much, much worse for Russia

Who and where

People · 2

Vladimir Putin 6

President of the Russian Federation
Photo 1
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 2

President of Ukraine since 2019
Photo 2

1. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

2. Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)

The Belarus Situation is Becoming a BIG Problem for Putin

Paul J. Warburg 18 June 2026

Lukashenko's shift from claiming Russian victory to admitting Russian defeat shows he is hedging his bets against a collapsing Russia. Russia has already lost Belarus as a loyal partner because Lukashenko now prioritizes his own safety over the union state agreement.

Russia is pursuing an INSANE new plan…it involves Belarus

Paul J. Warburg 21 April 2026

Russia is likely building infrastructure in Belarus as a feint to distract Ukraine and control narratives rather than planning an immediate invasion. Ukraine remains not out of the woods and needs sustained support through purchasing goods from Ukrainian businesses.

Putin Has NEVER Looked This Terrified - with Professor Gerdes

Paul J. Warburg 20 March 2026

Russia is trapped in a strategic siege and will likely collapse internally due to economic strain and fear of rebellion. The war will likely end not on the battlefield but through an economic collapse in Russia that forces a political change.

The Ukraine War is About to Get MUCH Worse for Russia

Paul J. Warburg 9 June 2026

The war is becoming more of a disaster for Russia every single day. There's a reason that President Zelensky, just a couple days before I recorded this video, sent a letter to Vladimir Putin taunting him, essentially saying exactly that, saying that Ukraine is ready for peace talks whenever Russia is.

Map of the places in “Is Russia Really Preparing to Attack NATO?”

Is Russia Really Preparing to Attack NATO?

Paul J. Warburg 30 September 2026

Russia is unlikely to attack NATO because doing so would open a massive new front while they are already failing in Ukraine. While we should prepare in case we're wrong, we should not fear a Russian attack because it's unlikely to happen.

AI-generated summary · model qwen3.5:9b-12k · prompt version whole-3.window-7.combine-10.s-f4be8e · video id xjaAbDW0V1c · Watch on YouTube