Ukraine Starts Cracking Open the Occupied Territories

Peter Zeihan 4 min

Russian authorities have suspended all fuel purchases for all civilians whether it's personal cars or businesses. The Russian position across the entire southern parts of the occupied territories is really falling apart.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Fuel Supply Cut in Crimea

    Russian authorities suspended all civilian fuel purchases in occupied Crimea due to drone attacks on supply lines. Ukrainian drones are systematically damaging rail bridges and roads, cutting off supply routes to occupied territories. Attacks are expanding from Crimea to other occupied regions like Kherson, Nikopol, and Dnipro. The sea link to southern occupied territories has been effectively cut by Ukrainian actions.

  2. 2:31

    Strategic Shift in the Region

    The balance of forces in the entire southern region is now shifting against Russian control.

  3. 3:42

    Unjammable Drone Threat

    Russian defenses cannot counter Ukrainian memory drones that are capable of selecting their own targets. The Russian position across the entire southern parts of the occupied territories is really falling apart.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Russian authorities have suspended all fuel purchases for all civilians whether it's personal cars or businesses.

  • 0:00

    The Ukrainians have now deployed enough drones reliably enough that can target things like fuel trucks.

  • 0:00

    The rail bridges have now been damaged or truck and now the Ukrainians are patrolling with dozens of drones at a time over the territory.

  • 0:00

    Most of these attacks are coming from places like Kherson, which are just on the other side of the Dnipro River.

  • 0:00

    The sea link has already effectively been cut.

  • 2:31

    The balance of forces in this entire region is now shift.

  • 3:42

    There's still a lot of ways where this can go horribly, horribly wrong. But the Russians have yet to come up with a way to counter the Ukrainian memory drones that are capable of selecting their own targets.

  • 3:42

    The Russian position across the entire southern parts of the occupied territories is really falling apart.

On the map

Map of the places in “Ukraine Starts Cracking Open the Occupied Territories”

Who and where

Places · 14

  • Autonomous Republic of Crimea 7
  • Russia 8
  • Donetsk Oblast 3
  • Dnipro 3
  • Crimea 1
  • Luhansk Oblast 1
  • Mariupol 1
  • Melitopol 1
  • Kherson 1
  • Ukraine 1
  • Nikopol 1
  • Crimean Bridge 1
  • Sea of Azov 1
  • Georgia 1
Map of the places in “Ukraine Just Sparked a Panic in the Russian Arctic” 18:11

Ukraine Just Sparked a Panic in the Russian Arctic

Paul J. Warburg

Russia's strategy of using its massive size as a defensive advantage is now obsolete. Ukraine is unlocking the entire country, and that hunting season won't end until Russia ends its war.

17:07

The Situation in Crimea is Spiraling Out of Control

Paul J. Warburg

Ukraine is executing a brilliant social and psychological warfare strategy by concentrating shortages in Crimea. This campaign will lead to a Russian exodus from Crimea and accelerate dissatisfaction with the war.

6:47

Will Ukraine Make a Play on Crimea?

Peter Zeihan

Ukrainian drone attacks are strangling Russian logistics, turning Crimea into a strategic drain rather than a military springboard. The Russian logistical effort for the southern front will crumble if Ukrainians continue to bottle up convoys in kill zones.

Map of the places in “Ukraine’s New FP-7 Ballistic Missile is Quickly Becoming Russia’s Worst Nightmare” 23:33

Ukraine’s New FP-7 Ballistic Missile is Quickly Becoming Russia’s Worst Nightmare

Paul J. Warburg

The introduction of FP-7 and future FP-9 ballistic missiles forces Russia to reallocate air defenses and burn through interceptors on cheap drones, creating a strategic advantage for Ukraine over the next one to two years. The combination of new missile capabilities and depleted Russian defenses will fundamentally alter the battlefield dynamics over the next one to two years.

17:52

Ukraine Just Warned ALL Russians to FLEE Crimea (while they still can)

Paul J. Warburg

Ukraine is using fuel shortages and logistical denial to force Russian citizens to flee Crimea and undermine Putin's legacy. This strategy creates circumstances in the future that will allow Ukraine to take their territory back from Russia.

AI-generated summary · model qwen3.5:9b-12k · prompt version whole-3.window-7.combine-10.s-f4be8e · video id IJ9ErH_23B4 · Watch on YouTube