Ukraine Just DELETED Russia’s Shadow Fleet

Paul J. Warburg 18 min

Ukraine knows exactly what victory is, and they are executing a strategy to achieve it. Russia has been reduced to flailing around, especially from a military standpoint, while Ukraine executes a strategy to achieve victory.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Ukraine Strikes Omsk Refinery

    Ukraine hit Russia's largest refinery from 2,500 kilometers away. Ukraine destroyed twelve shadow fleet vessels in a single evening.

  2. 2:06

    Russia Cannot Protect All Targets

    Russia's vast size makes it impossible to defend all borders. Russia moves defenses to one target while others remain exposed.

  3. 3:41

    Ukraine Targets Domestic Fuel Supply

    Ukraine aims to cut off fuel for average Russians, not just exports.

  4. 6:08

    Fuel Shortages Spread Across Russia

    Gasoline lines appear in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and farming regions.

  5. 6:56

    Importing Fuel Is Too Expensive

    Russia cannot easily replace lost domestic refining capacity.

  6. 7:43

    Ukraine Destroys River Transport Vessels

    Ukraine sank twelve riverine vessels used for internal fuel transit.

  7. 9:02

    River Transports Supply Crimea

    Russia uses river boats to move fuel to the cut-off peninsula.

  8. 11:11

    River Fleet Weakens Shadow Fleet Strategy

    Russia relies on river boats to supply export tankers under sanctions.

  9. 13:51

    River Fleet Is A Single Point of Failure

    Destroying these boats cripples both domestic supply and exports.

  10. 14:46

    Ukraine Targets Logistics Over Revenue

    Ukraine shifts focus from Russian income to internal state function. Russia is reduced to flailing while trying to stay in the fight.

  11. 16:46

    Ukraine Knows What Victory Looks Like

    Ukraine executes a clear strategy while Russia loses direction.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Ukraine just conducted two of their most impressive strikes of their entire war against Russia back to back in what has become a massive embarrassment for the Russians above and beyond what we've already seen, which is saying a lot.

  • 0:00

    Ukraine's strike of the Omsk refinery 2,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border shows that there is probably no target in all of Russia that's actually safe.

  • 2:06

    Because Ukraine has been striking Crimea and Moscow, Russia has been forced to reallocate their air defense systems, leaving other strategic targets completely vulnerable.

  • 2:06

    The war has now become basically a game of whack-a-mole.

  • 3:41

    Actually, Ukraine's goal when they start striking Russian refineries like this is to take the fight to the average Russian.

  • 6:08

    They are creating vulnerabilities within each Russian region where people can't get their hands on gasoline.

  • 6:56

    Even if Russia can resolve this problem, for example, by importing refined products from other countries, it's not going to be at the same cost that they're used to.

  • 7:43

    What Ukraine targeted were far smaller ships designed for riverine transit in Russia's massive river system.

  • 9:02

    There's effectively no fuel on the entire peninsula, and the Russians are panicking.

  • 11:11

    Increasingly, Russia has been using these river transport vehicles or these vehicles that can go in coastal waters to actually supply the shadow fleet.

  • 13:51

    These river transport vehicles, this network is never large enough to support the entire Russian economy, but it might have been large enough to support a small segment of the Russian elite.

  • 14:46

    We see that Ukraine has moved from just attacking Russia's revenues. They've already done a sufficient job there. Russia's economy is on the brink.

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