Russia Just Fell for China’s Biggest Trick Yet

Paul J. Warburg 5 September 202519 min

The relationship between Russia and China is one of convenience where China uses Russia to weaken itself and secure cheap energy for future goals. When it comes to the nature of China actually being able to help Russia and actually wanting to help Russia, what you need to look at are not the nice words that China and Russia throw at each other, but rather the actual concrete realities of how energy physically moves across physical territory.

Xi Jinping
Vladimir Putin

Chapters

0:00
The Illusion of Ideological Alliance

Russia and China are not true allies but partners of convenience with long-standing grievances.
1:01
Surface Headlines vs. Underlying Details

Media headlines suggest a strong partnership, while details reveal a desperate Russia conceding to massive Chinese demands. The recent agreement is a long-negotiated concession where Russia gives energy for free or near-free.
3:23
China's Adversarial Strategy Toward Russia

China treats Russia similarly to how the US treats Ukraine: keeping them fighting but not enough to win. China has already quietly claimed territory from Russia's Far East while Russia fights in Ukraine.
5:53
The Strategy of Discount and Delay

China demands massive discounts and delays energy delivery to prevent bailing out the Russian economy.
8:07
Infrastructure Constraints and Timeline Issues

Building pipelines takes over a decade, meaning the deal helps China more than it helps Russia now.
10:45
The Memorandum of Understanding Trap

Russia and China only signed a non-binding memorandum, showing they do not take such agreements seriously.
13:09
Failed Negotiations on Pricing and Timeline

Russia and China have not agreed on the timeline or the specific pricing for the energy deal.
14:08
China's Long-Term Geopolitical Goals

China uses Russia to weaken itself and secure cheap energy for future conflicts like the Taiwan invasion.
15:07
The True Nature of the Relationship

China uses Russia to generate headlines and weaken its international partners rather than helping it survive. The relationship is defined by physical energy movement, not words or headlines.

Key points

0:00
The nature of the relationship between Russia and China is actually one that I think the vast majority of people get wrong.
1:01
Today is an important day to be talking about this because today is one of those days where the surface-level headlines have a lot of people worried about the relationship between Russia and China, where in reality, the details behind those headlines are extremely underwhelming.
3:23
I would say the same thing is true of China's approach to Russia, but China's approach to Russia is actually even more adversarial than the United States towards Ukraine.
3:23
For example, as Russia has been fighting against Ukraine, China has taken advantage of this opportunity to quietly claim some territory from Russia and Russia's Far East.
1:01
What I'm talking about, of course, is a flurry of deals that have recently come out of talks between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
5:53
The key aspects here are discount and delay, where every time China goes into a new energy deal with Russia, the first thing they do is demand a massive discount.
8:07
And in fact, it might not actually increase for more than a decade. That's because no matter what you want to do, you can't simply deliver energy to another country overnight.
13:09
They have not agreed on the timeline and they have not agreed to announce the pricing.
10:45
All they have is a memorandum of understanding. And if you know anything about Russia and China when it comes to memorandums of understanding, they don't exactly take those seriously.
14:08
There is a very real chance that China actually has no intention of ever buying Russian energy.
15:07
They will use them to get cheaper energy. They will use them to weaken their international partners.
15:07
When it comes to the nature of China actually being able to help Russia and actually wanting to help Russia, what you need to look at are not the nice words that China and Russia throw at each other, but rather the actual concrete realities of how energy physically moves across physical territory.

Who and where

People · 2

Xi Jinping 1

General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party since 2012 (born 1953)
Photo 1
Vladimir Putin 1

President of the Russian Federation
Photo 2

1. Photo: Presidencia de la República del Ecuador, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Xi Jinping)

2. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

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