This is ALREADY Russia's Worst Year Yet

Paul J. Warburg 18 min

2026 is already Russia's worst year yet because accumulated attrition, budget deficits, manpower shortages, and new Ukrainian fortifications make victory impossible. Ukraine will be in a better strategic position at the end of the year despite enduring warfare.

  • Vladimir Putin

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Iran Protests and Russian Response

    Protests in Iran threaten the regime, prompting Russia to send military equipment for air defense and repression.

  2. 3:23

    Accumulated Energy Infrastructure Damage

    Ukraine's strikes on energy infrastructure have caused gasoline shortages and reduced revenues, with damages accumulating daily.

  3. 3:57

    Budget Deficit and National Wealth Fund Depletion

    Sanctions and reduced revenues force Russia to run a massive budget deficit, depleting its national wealth fund.

  4. 7:06

    Inability to Fund Military Bonuses

    Regions can no longer afford high bonuses, reducing volunteer recruitment and forcing changes to mobilization laws.

  5. 8:37

    Shift to Conscription and Cavalry

    Desperate for manpower, Russia changes mobilization laws and increasingly uses horses on the battlefield. New Ukrainian fortifications block breakthroughs, while unmanned ground vehicles hold entire sections of the front line.

  6. 12:21

    Interceptor Drones and Flamingo Missiles

    Ukraine deploys interceptor drones to defend skies and uses long-range flamingo missiles to strike Russian territory. Europe delivers weapons produced in 2025, amplifying Ukraine's arsenal and reducing dependence on the United States.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Russia allocates cargo planes with military equipment to Iran to defend against protests.

  • 3:23

    Ukraine's strikes on energy infrastructure cause accumulating gasoline shortages and revenue loss.

  • 3:57

    Russia runs a budget deficit of roughly 50 billion US dollars due to sanctions and reduced revenues.

  • 7:06

    Russian regions run out of funds to pay military bonuses, reducing volunteer recruitment.

  • 8:37

    Russia changes mobilization laws and uses horses on the battlefield due to manpower shortages.

  • 12:21

    Ukraine deploys unmanned ground vehicles to hold entire sections of the front line.

  • 12:21

    Ukraine uses interceptor drones to defend skies and long-range flamingo missiles to strike Russia.

  • 15:48

    Russia continues to get weaker while Ukraine gets stronger throughout 2026.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Vladimir Putin

    Vladimir Putin 3

    President of the Russian Federation

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

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