The US Economy Is (Kind of, Sort of) Growing

Peter Zeihan 4 min

The US economy is growing artificially due to data center bubbles and wealthy spending while the majority cuts back. When this economic structure cracks, it will hurt more than necessary because growth relies on unstable factors.

  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Industrial Construction and Data Centers

    Industrial construction spending dips while tariff costs create artificial growth in data centers. Overall consumption appears steady because the wealthy top 10% spend heavily despite rising costs.

  2. 2:13

    Inequality in Spending

    The bottom two-thirds cut back on spending while the top 10% increases or maintains consumption. The economy relies too heavily on a bubble in data centers and wealthy spending.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Tariff policies generate chaos in the industrial space.

  • 0:00

    Data centers account for 30 to 40% of industrial construction spending.

  • 0:00

    High input costs make the economy look better than it really is.

  • 0:00

    Any specific subsector that is a huge percentage of a major statistic indicates a bubble.

  • 2:13

    Consumption for the bottom two-thirds of the population is dropping.

  • 2:13

    The top 10% of the population is responsible for roughly half of total consumption.

  • 2:13

    Most of the population is tightening their belts while the wealthy spend more.

  • 2:13

    The economy is becoming much more lopsided and dependent on specific factors.

  • 3:33

    There are 650 tariff policies for the year to date.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 1

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

11:37

The U.S. Dollar: Short vs. Long Term

Peter Zeihan

The U.S. dollar will rise over decades due to structural strengths but drop in the short term due to active policy choices. The result is at the moment, in a moment of global crisis, surprisingly small gains for the US dollar.

4:36

Global Depression Is Coming Sooner Than Expected

Peter Zeihan

Trump's policies are not the primary cause of an impending global depression; rather, they are accelerating a collapse that was already inevitable due to long-term demographic shifts and deglobalization trends. Current U.S. policies make the situation worse for the United States than it needs to be.

6:59

The Fire Hose of Chaos: Wait, The Recession Is Already Here?

Peter Zeihan

The United States is already in a completely unnecessary recession caused by erratic policies and tariffs. The recession will start formally in the second quarter, certainly in the third, and last a lot longer than it would have ever needed to.

6:11

Watch This Number for Recession Indicators

Peter Zeihan

A policy recession caused by crazy decision-making in Washington will be revealed in July when consumption overwhelms inventories. The speaker warns that rising first-time unemployment claims within the revised lower range signal an imminent recession.

8:08

Inflation Ticks Up Under Trump-2

Peter Zeihan

Tariffs and immigration crackdowns are driving inflation through housing, food, transport, and labor costs. The speaker finds it dubious that a coherent second phase exists due to political gridlock.

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